Almost As Intense As the Time Peter Forgot How To Sit Down

After an extended period of this blog being dormant, it was always likely to take something big for that to change, something like, ooh, a potential change of manager at Manchester United?

The situation is, of course, fluid, but let's go back to Friday, December 5. An inebriated Ed Woodward (your daily reminder that, yes, the Chief Executive of Manchester United really is called Edward Woodward) takes Fleet Street's finest out for a few drinks, and proceeds to tell all concerned that Van Gaal is considered a "genius", that the job is his as long as he wants it, and doesn't rule out the option of his contract being extended beyond its current end in 2017. Yet a mere 4 games later, said press pack is practically baying for his blood, and seems convinced their view is shared at board level- without wishing to dwell on it, one has to re-iterate that, for reasons unknown, the media really don't like Louis Van Gaal. Want some evidence? Look at how most non-English managers get quoted during their press conferences, then read a report on a Van Gaal one. Journalists are usually kind enough to their subjects to tidy up the sort of minor grammatical, subtle errors they naturally make in a foreign language, a luxury that they don't afford Van Gaal. Anyway, moving on to the main question- will he actually be sacked? And who would replace him?

The Glazers are based in the USA and delegate the entirety of the day-to-day running of the club to Woodward (who works out of MUFC's commercial offices in London. Yes, really). There will be input from Sir Alex Ferguson (still trousering in excess of £2 million per annum from the club for a largely ceremonial ambassador role) and Sir Bobby Charlton (both of whom objected to the potential appointment of Jose Mourinho in 2013) and the 6 Glazers themselves (Malcolm having died in 2014), but the final decision will ultimately be Woodward's. He's a physics graduate with a background in mergers & acquisitions activity and not what one would normally call a "football man", so the current complaints about the playing style under Van Gaal will not bother him or the Glazers one iota, so long as the money keeps rolling in- remember back to 2014, when David Moyes was only sacked when Champions League football the following season became mathematically impossible. This is a board of cautious bean counters looking to protect their investment and dreaming of yet another new bumper TV deal, not a bunch of football fans wanting to be entertained every Saturday and dreaming of silverware in May.

The financial situation is key here. The headline figure of £250 million of spending under Van Gaal is technically accurate, however it tells far from the full story. A number of high earning, experienced players have been moved on from the club over the last 18 months, with the vast majority of new signings being young, on relatively low wages and with significant potential resale value, a point Van Gaal himself effectively admitted when announcing the signing of Anthony Martial. It's worth also noting that the Glazers were fully prepared to sell David De Gea to Real Madrid on transfer deadline day to leave United with only Sergio Romero and Sam Johnstone as senior goalkeepers, Van Gaal having effectively jettisoned Victor Valdes. In terms of the criteria given to him by the board, Van Gaal isn't actually failing- commercial revenue is ever increasing, the average age (and wage bill) of the squad is dramatically lower than it was when he took the job and a top 4 finish is still well within United's reach (it's far from inconceivable that one or more of the 4 teams currently above United in the league may not maintain that position) even, as seems overwhelmingly likely, without reinforcements arriving in January.

Which brings us to the question of, if he goes, who would replace him. The widely touted favourite (and, to go back to my earlier point, media darling) Jose Mourinho is of course now available. Well, sort of. Mourinho only signed a new 4 year contract with Chelsea in August- he'll be paid that contract in full until its expiry in 2019 or he takes another managerial role. Therefore, in order to appoint him now, the board (who would need to seek the approval of Ferguson and Charlton, who overlooked him in 2013) would need to pay up the remaining 18 months of Van Gaal's contract (just days after publicly signalling their willingness to extend it), offer Mourinho a better contract than his existing Chelsea one and no doubt agree to give Mourinho an expansive "transfer war chest", along with carte blanche to ignore the club's preference of signing (and developing) younger players with resale value. All of these actions simply do not tie in with the behaviour we have witnessed from the Glazers during their ownership of the club, a 10 year period during which they have taken over £1 billion out of the club.

Let's briefly also touch on another potential replacement, Ryan Giggs. What works in his favour is that he's already on the payroll, and has (briefly) done the job before. However, given his current role as Van Gaal's assistant, he's either being completely over-ruled and/or ignored by Van Gaal, or he's complicit in United's current playing style (or lack of it).

It's clear that there are serious issues at Manchester United right now. However, as much as Louis Van Gaal has erred (not that he'd ever admit it), it is important to remember the constraints under which he operates- the frankly larcenous nature of the Glazers' ownership of the club doesn't get anywhere near enough scrutiny. Which is, of course, exactly the way they want it, and allows them to sit back and watch as Van Gaal is portrayed as the scapegoat.

Personally? I'd rather stick with Van Gaal for now- in a stick or twist situation like this, the cautious play is generally preferred. At 64 he's not the long-term, legacy option- but then again, neither is Jose Mourinho (look through his career history- the drop-off of his teams in his 3rd year is staggering). The nature of the league this season is such that a credible finish is still very much achievable, maybe even a cup too. The summer of 2016 will see numerous changes in management at many of the top clubs, at which point, should one or both parties feel a change is required, they will both have the maximum number of options available










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There's No Mistake, I Smell That Smell

Gadzooks! It's almost time for the season to start again (although with the European "Under 21" Championship, the Copa America and an Eastern European pre-season adventure with my beloved Staggies, it doesn't much feel like I've had a break). With that in mind, here's what to expect (or not) in the SPFL Premiership this season (also, if you want some EPL fantasy football action, join our free league at fantasy.premierleague.com with code 738646-183823):

Celtic will win the thing. There, I said it

Aberdeen will once again finish 2nd, quite some way ahead of the rest but still some way off Celtic. Manager Derek McInnes didn't really need to change a successful team much, with Danny Ward and Graeme Shinnie providing the only necessary upgrades at goalkeeper and left-back respectively, and Paul Quinn (which incidentally means they signed the captains of both Inverness CT and Ross County) useful cover across the back line

Next up could well be St Johnstone. There may be more exciting teams in the league than Tommy Wright's battle-hardened bunch of thirtysomethings but they're a well-organised, disciplined mob with some decent wingers and, in the cumbersome but effective John Sutton, a proven goalscorer at this level. Young keeper Zander Clark impressed on loan at Queen of the South last season, and will provide genuine competition for regular number 1 Alan Mannus

One of those more exciting teams could be Dundee United, who were quite the Jekyll and Hyde proposition last season- spellbinding at times in the first half of the season, but utterly recalcitrant from January onwards, Jackie McNamara undoubtedly has some talented youngsters to develop before selling them to Celtic (taking a cut for himself in the process), but serious questions remain over them as a defensive unit (somewhat bizarre given McNamara's playing career as a sturdy full-back). That cost them last season and could do so again

Next up- don't be surprised if Ross County make an appearance in the top 6. Since arriving at the Global Energy For Make Benefit Glorious Republic of Ross-Shire Stadium, manager Jim McIntyre has transformed the Staggies into a direct, adventurous outfit. He has stuck with the County tradition of signing half a new team each transfer window, with this summer's most noteworthy additions being the impossibly blonde centre-back (and new captain) Andrew Davies, the Brobdingnagian centre-forward Brian Graham, the magnificent flowing locks of all-action Aussie Jackson Irvine, and Amy MacDonald's boyfriend

Where, you, ask, does that leave Hearts? One has to wonder, with a squad comprising many of the same players Gary Locke led to relegation 2 seasons ago, just how good Robbie Neilson's side really are, given how even a wretched Motherwell side comfortably dispatched with Rangers (2012-) to demonstrate the significant gulf between the Premiership and the Championship, and how the Jambos themselves were gubbed in both cup competitions by Celtic last season. A top 6 finish should be theirs, but that could be as far as they get in their first season back in the top flight

It'll be a close run thing with the 2 (or maybe even 3) teams directly above them, but Dundee could be the ones to narrowly miss out on a top 6 place. Manager Paul Hartley has again raided the lower leagues and has made some astute signings- Kevin Holt and Rory Loy should cope with the step up, although they do have a real lack of width, which could cost them points against the stuffier defences of the league

Another team set to be involved in the scrap for the top 6 are Inverness CT. Last season's Scottish Cup win covered up something of a drop-off in John Hughes' side's league results after the sale of Billy McKay- it remains to be seen if he, or captain Graeme Shinnie (or indeed the pacey Marley Watkins), have been adequately replaced

Let's file Motherwell and Kilmarnock together in 9th and 10th. Stayed up last season despite having a wholly unconvincing manager (Ian Baraclough and the Bonnyrigg Bielsa, Gary Locke)? Check. Have this summer re-signed a club legend portly centre-forward lethal in the 6 yard box but useless outside it (David Clarkson and Kris Boyd)? Check. A decent crop of youngsters who should get some game time? Check. Killie might have the edge come the season's end owing to having a goalkeeper who is competent (Jamie MacDonald) rather than the calamitous Dan Twardzik, but both are likely to be mired in the bottom 6 for the duration of the season

I really hope Kingsley isn't reading this, as I'm tipping Partick Thistle for 11th place. There was good news for the Jags today, as they completed the signing of Pogba: unfortunately for Kingsley and co, it's Mathias Pogba, the older, journeyman striker brother of the Juventus superstar. Key men such as goalkeeper Scott Fox, the under-rated rampaging full-back Stephen O'Donnell, the Brilliant When He Can Be Arsed Kallum Higginbotham and Lyle Taylor have all departed leaving Alan Archibald's squad looking a tad thin- he'll have to rely on youngsters to cover in certain positions, most notably at the back

That leaves us with Hamilton Accies finishing 12th, which looks plausible given the dramatic in their form after losing both manager Alex Neil and top scorer Tony Andreu to Norwich mid-season. Neil has at least sent them young striker Carlton Morris on loan, where he will be competing for a place with the rotund Christian Nade, who wasn't exactly a standout for Championship mid-tablers Raith Rovers last season- why manager Martin Canning believes he'll be able to find the net on a regular basis in a higher league is anyone's guess. At least he won't have lost any pace- he never had any to begin with!







GIVE GILLES, AYRTON AND DAN A HARD TIME UP THERE, JULES

Tom Keen (Number 7)

Yeah, about those Grand National tips......

Time to get back to what I actually know, and leave the nags for about 10 months (5 furlong dashes over the flat doesn't interest me nearly as much):

Obligatory Champions League Quarter Final 2nd Leg Previews
The Madrid derby at the Vicente Calderon was a predictably scrappy affair (going 7 matches without beating your neighbours tends to do that to you, eh Mr Ancelotti?), with the No Disqualifications Match between Mario Mandzukic and Sergio Ramos proving an amusing side story, even if there was a suspicion Mandzukic may have bladed after catching Ramos' stray fingernail. They reconvene in the Emirati Oil Company Bernabeu (laugh now, but it's happening) on Wednesday with both sides hit by injuries and suspension- factoring in this, Diego Simeone's side's record in this game, and the standard bookies' overpricing of Atletico, 13/8 on Atletico to qualify is the call here (as is 9/2 on Monaco to qualify in Wednesday's other game)


He May Talk The Talk, But Jose Will Never Walk The Walk
Chelsea's youth team won the UEFA youth league last week, and they contest the 1st leg of the FA youth cup tonight. Jose Mourinho has spent some time this season talking up the progress being made by the club's academy, but how has this translated into actual minutes on the park for these players? It, er, hasn't. Witness the last 2 league games, where due to not-exactly-unpredictable injuries to Diego Costa and Loic Remy, Mourinho has deployed the geriatric Didier Drogba in attack. Lo and behold, in both games, Drogba's contribution has been, as one would expect from a 93-year-old centre-forward, minimal, especially past the 60 minute mark. And has Maureen deigned to use young strikers from the bench like Izzy Brown and Dominic Solanke? Of course not. By way of comparison, it's interesting to note that 19 year olds Paddy McNair and Luke Shaw were arguably Manchester United's best players on Saturday. Amazing what happens when you actually trust them, eh Jose?

Welcome Back, GP2
The hidden gem of the Sky Sports F1 channel, the GP2 Series started again in Bahrain this weekend, with all the fun, overtaking, and Sergio Canamasas crashing into people that we've come to expect from F1's main support series. Pre-season favourite, McLaren protégé Stoffel Vandoorne duly lived up to expectations, recording pole position, the race win and fastest lap in Saturday's feature race, following it up with a 2nd place in Sunday's sprint race. As ever in single-make formulae, he's unlikely to have it all his own way, though: likely contenders include Alexander Rossi, who finally has a good seat at Racing Engineering after a patchy 2014, and scored a feature race podium. Honourable mention, too, for his team-mate Jordan King, who was just behind him in the feature race before having the misfortune to be run into by the ever-dangerous Sergio Canamasas. Ferrari-affiliated youngster Raffaele Marciello, meanwhile, is making a play for Unluckiest GP2 Driver. After numerous instances of bad luck last season, his 2015 started with gearbox issues during qualifying, before being taken out of the feature race by Norman Nato, effectively ruining his weekend. If this guy can catch a break, he's sure to challenge Vandoorne, who should also face a greater challenge from the other side of his ART garage, with Nobuharu Matsushita taking to the series much more quickly than 2014 pilot Takuya Izawa, scoring points in both races








I SO INFORMED YOU THUSLY

Rollins! Rollins Wins the Title!

It's almost here, folks- the Grand National!

As tradition dictates, let's go through a couple of general pointers, along with some of the possible contenders:

It Pays To Go Each-Way
I'm going to assume that, if you're reading this blog, you know what's meant by each way, but with so many horses in with a chance of at least placing, and so many runners at biggish prices, it really is worthwhile covering yourself by going each way on your runner(s). Scout around for the bookies offering 5 (and even 6) places, as well as scouting around for the best prices (we'll touch on that again later)

Beat The Crowd- Get Your Bets On Early
The casual punters will all be in your local Ladbrokes or Hills on Saturday morning, and their flood of fivers and tenners will only send the prices downwards, diminishing your returns (although the disappearance from this year's race of Shakalakaboomboom does mean there's no risk of the Ooh, Let's Pick Him Because He has A Funny Name LOLZ crowd adversely impacting on a horse's price). With the final declaration stage having been Thursday (once all the horses had been to the horse dentist), get in there quickly after that to get your runners (because you're taking more than 1; come on, there's 40 horses in the field!) at the best available price. Remember and shop around for the best prices, too- consult Oddschecker to compare bookies and their odds and offers

The Runners (well, some of them)
We'll not get through all 40 of them, but let's start from the top of the betting

SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR
The 7/1 favourite and mount of AP McCoy in his final ever Grand National- it's worth looking elsewhere for value, though. Won the 2014 Irish Grand National, however that's not really proved a springboard for horses to go on to greater things, and hasn't been seen since triumphing over a middling field over 3m 1/2f at Carlisle in November- 8 year olds have a poor record here, too

ROCKY CREEK
5th in last year's running of this race, there's every chance the 10/1 2nd favourite could place again this year, having romped a warm-up race at Kempton. 9 years old and coming into his prime for Paul Nicholls, very much one to consider despite carrying plenty of weight

THE DRUIDS NEPHEW
Romped a competitive handicap at Cheltenham last month, which saw his price for this tumble from 33/1 into its current 12/1. His jumping was fluent in that, plus he appeared to have plenty in hand, and goes off a decent weight in this. Concerns are over his stamina (has never won over more than 3m 6f) and his age (it's 13 years since an 8 year old won this), but if he can stay clear of trouble early on he's got a real chance

FURIOUS D
Given a new bad-ass attitude, show him some latitude and you'll win his gratitude. Unfortunately hasn't made the cut for this year's running, due mainly to the fact that the Springfield Derby doesn't count as a qualifying race


MONBEG DUDE
A real mudlark who has experience round these fences before, finishing 7th here last year under a similar weight and a former Welsh National winner. Unlikely to get the ground he needs, though, and while he should stay the distance, there's faster horses in the race over the distance

PINEAU DE RE
Last year's winner lines up again aiming to become the first horse to win back-to-back Grand Nationals since 1974. He's had a low-key build up to this year's run, just as last year, under Dr Richard Newland. Now 12 years old (it's 11 years since a horse that age triumphed here) and carrying 8lbs more than last year, you'd fancy him to have a decent chance of getting round again, but will probably be outpaced by others

OSCAR TIME
The real veteran of this race at 14 years old, he has a tremendous record in this race, placing 2nd in 2011 and 4th in 2013, as well as winning the Becher Chase at Aintree back in December. Were he any younger than 14 (nothing that age has won since 1853) then the 50/1 currently available on him would be genuinely outstanding- as it is, while he should run well for a while, he may just be found wanting at the end

ACROSS THE BAY
Hugely unlucky in both 2013 and 2014, where loose horses hampered him when leading onto the 2nd circuit- was unfortunate again at Cheltenham when brought down by another horse. This year sees him carrying less weight than both his previous 2 Grand National attempts- he's also fond of front-running, so may be worth backing for a bit of interest in the 1st half of the race- stamina won't be far off, and he's surely due a change of luck

GAS LINE BOY
An interesting 100/1 outsider. Was in decent form before Christmas before a slightly disappointing showing at Haydock in February- when you're only 4th in a race won by Harry the Viking, something's not right. Has demonstrated he's a decent stayer, but it would be a big ask for his jumping to hold up over 30 fences in a 40 horse field

There you have (some of) it, folks. Enjoy the big race











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And If You Don't Love Me Now, You Will Never Love Me Again

A big sporting week is coming up: there's some Champions League last 16 action, the Formula 1 Chasing After Mercedes season gets underway, but most importantly, there's The Greatest Show on Turf, Cheltenham!

2 types of tips for y'all. First off, some general pointers on how to get the best out of this week:

• Shop around for the best bookies. They're all queuing up with special offers and free bets to get your custom. Take care to read the full terms and conditions, though- generally, there'll be a promo code to enter, or your first bet will need to be of a certain size and/or price
• Shop around for the best prices. It's well worth taking up a few of the offers above and having accounts with different bookies in order to be best placed to take advantage of any differences in price- we'll get to tips for the individual races shortly, but in the opening race, Tuesday's Supreme Novices Hurdle, Shaneshill is currently priced at 10/1 with some firms, and 12/1 with others- that's a £20 difference to your return off a £10 bet
• Set a budget and stick to it. Don't blow everything on the 1st day. You can top up your budget with the myriad of free bets and enhancements that are out there. There's 27 races across 4 days, so there'll be plenty to get your teeth into- don't feel compelled to bet on every single race
• Have a look at the previous runnings of each race. Certain races, such as Wednesday's Queen Mother Champion Chase, have tended to be dominated by the favourites, while others such as the Supreme Novices Hurdle, have been something of a graveyard for the market leaders
• Play the long game. The Grand National weights have been announced, and the field for Aintree is starting to take shape. Many of the runners will be in action at Cheltenham this week, so keep a close eye on any horses in action this week to get some pointers regarding their chances next month

Now, for some actual tips:

• On the opening day, all the current talk is regarding trainer Willie Mullins, and his 4 favourites in the Supreme Novices Hurdle (Douvan, 7/4), Arkle (Un De Sceaux, 8/13), Champion Hurdle (Faugheen, 5/4) and the Mares Hurdle (Annie Power, 8/13). There are numerous specials out there on just how many of them will triumph (Bet Victor have a particularly enticing one), but personally, I'll be backing only the latter 2
• It's AP McCoy's last ever visit as a jockey to Cheltenham- there will no doubt be plenty of media attention on him and anything he mounts. That, however, can often erode any value in backing him- don't be tricked into backing mediocre horses just because of the name on its saddle
• The impressive Champagne Fever goes on Wednesday in the Queen Mother Champion Chase- back him to win at 6/1 with Paddy Power
• The big showpiece event of the week is of course the Gold Cup on Friday- the class of the field appears to be Silviniaco Conti, who gave a very encouraging showing in last year's running, only to finish 4th. He's arguably in even better form this year after romping home against much of this field in the King George, and can be backed at a best price of 10/3

MOMMA SAYS THE COBBLER IS THE DEVIL

You Gotta Be Kidding Me!

Welcome back, dear readers

Maureen's Meltdown
So, Jose Mourinho decides to pop up on Goals on Sunday for a little rant. Had "The Special One" lost it? Nope, the exact opposite. Indeed, he probably had it scripted on the autocue (close your eyes, give Jose a Jewish New Yorker accent and you'd think you were listening to a Paul Heyman promo). This was classic Maureen, attempting to create a siege mentality, us-against-the-world mindset in his dressing room. "Look at the lengths I've gone to in public to defend you guys", he'll be telling his players. "Look at the loyalty I've shown you. I expect the same back". It's a mindset that can, and has, delivered Maureen some incredible success, but backfired spectacularly when he tried the same schtick at Real Madrid- it's difficult to portray the world as being against you when you're at one of the biggest clubs in the world, that demands success but at the same time has underlying honourable traditions to defend. But there's no way that his rant was timed deliberately to take media attention away from the altogether less pleasant news story that has engulfed Chelsea FC in the last week. Oh no. Absolutely not

Stand Back, There's A Harry Kane Coming
With a total of 24 goals in all competitions so far this season, it's no surprise to hear chat that Harry Kane will be included in the next England squad. However, with the dearth of top quality, experienced players available to Roy (was gonna go with Woy, but decided against a speech impediment joke) Hodgson, Kane probably won't be the only previously unheralded player making their international bow soon: while the inclusion of Burnley's Danny Ings wouldn't be a huge surprise, given the travails of centre-backs Gary Cahill, Phil Jagielka,  Chris Smalling and Phil Jones with game time, form, fitness and being Phil Jones, there could be a call-up for Ings' club team-mate (and England Under 21 regular) Michael Keane

Playing To Your Strengths
Right, enough random Comment Is Free-esque nattering from me, let's do some betting tips for football matches!
Why not try something different in the Premier League this weekend? Rather than trying to predict the straight outcome of the Saturday 3pm games, here's a little over/under total goals acca:
Burnleh v Swansea: Over 2.5
Man United v Sunderland: Over 2.5
Newcastle v Tim Sherwood's Aston Villa: Under 2.5
Stoke v 'Ull: Under 2.5
West Brom v Southampton: Under 2.5
North of the border (let's get back to traditional, predicting winners), Dundee United, despite some iffy recent results, can get their groove back by beating a recalcitrant, disjointed Partick Thistle, while Inverness should have no trouble recording another win away at Ian Baraclough's wretched Motherwell side. In the Championship, meanwhile, Hearts -1 at home to Cowdenbeath are worth taking if you want to bulk up an accumulator (keep them at a sensible length, mind), while Queen of the South are very well priced to record another win away at an out-of-form Dumbarton side whom they have already beaten 4-0 and 3-0 this season. Happy punting






GREENWALD 1 RIFKIND 0