Aston Villa v West Ham, Saturday 18th April

My Thoughts

Two sides here currently experiencing vastly different runs of form. Villa haven't won a league game in 2 months, while West Ham have played themselves into contention for a Europa League place. Villa, without the influential Martin Laursen, have been haemmoraging goals recently, conceding 17 goals in their last 6 games, placing an even greater reliance on a front line that has been hit by injuries recently- Emile Heskey and Gabriel Agbonlahor could both miss this match, and with Marlon Harewood on loan at Wolves, Martin O'Neill is left with only John Carew and youngster Nathan Delfouneso as his attacking options. Carlos Cuellar is also a doubt. West Ham travel to Villa Park off the back of a 1-0 defeat against Tottenham last Saturday in a largely forgettable match. In the reverse fixture earlier this season, the Hammers were arguably the better side, but Villa emerged with the 3 points, courtesy of a deflected James Milner effort. Brad Friedel in the Aston Villa goal has not kept a clean sheet at Villa Park since Wigan were the visitors at the end of January, a run that has contributed to Villa falling out of contention for a Champions League place. Expect Friedel to be busy, even against a side that have won only 4 Premier League away games this season.

The Verdict
Two sides on differing runs of form, here. Villa have not so much stuttered in recent weeks as suffered complete hydraulic failure. Part of this stems from their encounter with Manchester United 2 weeks ago, where the damage done was not just in the result (and the manner of the result), but also in that Villa were found out by United to be essentially a long-ball side with no plan B. Gone is the high-tempo, counter-attacking side we saw earlier this season. However, West Ham have won just once in 11 league visits to Villa Park. Draw

The Bet
I'd be tempted by the draw (best price 13/5 Blue Square), but it might also be worth considering over 2.5 goals (Villa's last 4 games have all featured over 2.5 goals), considering Villa's leaky defence/prolific strikeforce combination (best price 8/11 Paddy Power)