The World Cup So Far Part 1

After the first week of matches, here are a few things we've learned from South Africa 2010 so far:

The Contenders- South American sides on top
At this stage, the most likely winners of the tournament are Argentina and Brazil. Diego Maradona's side possess such potency going forward that, even with some slight uncertainties over their defence (one has to wonder whether or not makeshift right-back Jonas Gutierrez would cope with an Arjen Robben up against him, with only Javier Mascherano likely to offer any help from midfield), they could simply outscore teams with their array of attacking talent. Brazil have the ominous look of a team that, unlike previous Brazil sides, can sacrifice flair and grind out results even when they are not playing well. They have no such doubts at right-back, with Maicon likely to be a key attacking outlet. Also among the favourites at this stage are Germany (despite their loss to Serbia, they should still make at least the quarter-finals) and Holland, who, like Brazil, have added extra steel and organisation to their undoubted attacking talent- they should also be able to add Arjen Robben to their side in the later stages.

Of the other heavyweights, Spain have work to do. Along with the Barcelona side from whom some of this seleccion is drawn, their playing style has been found out. Jose Mourinho and Ottmar Hitzfeld have both shown that, by congesting the centre of the park when not in possession and forcing the opposition into the wide areas, and by avoiding trying to retain possesstion in the centre and by moving the ball quickly to the front, Spain and Barcelona can be stopped. Vicente Del Bosque seems reluctant to change his ways, although he may have to consider starting with Jesus Navas on the right wing to try and beat Honduras, who will no doubt copy the Hitzfeld model. France are heading for a disgraceful early exit and deservedly so. A similar fate may well await England- even if they make it out of their group, a tough 2nd round tie awaits them against either Germany, a vibrant Ghana or a steely Serbia. Italy, even taking into account their tradition of starting a tournament slowly. don't look anything like potential winners- quarter-finals at best for them on current form.

Of the other sides, Chile, Uruguay and Mexico have all looked impressive- it would be no surprise to see at least 1 of them in the quarter-finals. Chile's madcap 3-3-1-3 formation, combined with some slick, accurate passing at high tempo made them a joy to watch against Honduras, with Alexis Sanchez on the right of the 3 man attack particularly impressive. Uruguay were solid if unspectacular in their opener against France, but were a class above against South Africa- coach Oscar Tabarez moving Diego Forlan into the trequartista position working beautifully, as Forlan ran the show, continually finding space behind South Africa's flat midfield (more on that later). Mexico were equally impressive with their fluid 4-3-3 system, full of neat passing and movement, with Guillermo Franco the pivot in attack off whom the livewire Giovani Dos Santos and Carlos Vela can operate.

The Formations- The Death of 4-4-2
As I mentioned before, the South American sides have had the edge so far- but intriguingly, one thing that all the contenders mentioned have in common is that none of them (Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Holland, Mexico, Chile and Uruguay) play 4-4-2. Argentina play a quasi-4-3-3, which almost becomes a diamond 4-4-2 when Messi drops away from Higuain and Tevez. Having Mascherano in the DMC positions allows Di Maria the freedom to push on as an orthodox left-winger, with Veron (or Maxi Rodriguez) playing more centrally. Brazil play a fairly regulation 4-2-3-1, with 2 holding midfielders in Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo allowing Maicon and Michel Bastos bombing forward from the full-back positions. Germany also play 4-2-3-1, although their 2 central midfield players (Schweinsteiger and Khedira) are given more license to push forward- in actual fact, when Phillip Lahm pushes on, their system almost becomes a back 3, with the more defensively-minded Holger Badstuber sitting back and moving more centrally, with right-sided centre-back Arne Friedrich covering Lahm. For Holland, replace the 2 DMCs with Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong, until they both get suspended. Mexico, as aforementioned, play a very fluid 4-3-3, with the emphasis being on moving the ball quickly and accurately, with width being provided by Carlos Salcido from left-back, and Efrain Juarez from the right. Chile's 3-3-1-3 formation has made them arguably the best team to watch so far- their game against Spain should be a treat, while Uruguay moved from a back 3 against France to a 4-3-1-2 against South Africa designed to allow Diego Forlan to dictate the game against a flat 4-4-2.

Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group B

Much has been written about Argentina under Diego Maradona, but they still arrive in South Africa as one of the contenders for the trophy, despite being widely written off due to some of Maradona's selection decisions. Of the other 3 teams in the group, Nigeria would appear to be Argentina's closest challengers ahead of a dour Greece side and a South Korea side who look a shadow of the side who memorably made the semi-finals in 2002

Argentina
A chaotic qualifying campaign and a somewhat scattergun selection policy were the hallmarks of the beginning of Maradona's stint in charge, but in recent months there seems to be a more settled look to the side, even if some of the selection decisions Maradona has made for his finals squad are nothing short of baffling (the previously unheralded Ariel Garce and Juan Mercier, along with 36-year-old Martin Palermo in; 136-cap Javier Zanetti, Gabriel Milito, Esteban Cambiasso and Lisandro Lopez out). In goals, Mardona's decision to trust AZ Alkmaar rookie Sergio Romero in goals has been an inspired one- he'll be protected by, in Diego's own words, 4 centre-backs (this his reasoning behind leaving out Zanetti)- infront of them will be Javier Mascherano, so while it may not be pretty, expect Argentina not to concede many goals. Going forward, the last person you would expect to see in central midfield would most likely be ex-Manchester United flop/"F***ing superb player" Juan Sebastian Veron- so you'll never guess who Maradona's gone and picked next to Mascherano. Yep, Seba Veron- he hasn't got the legs these days, but can still pass a ball. Upfront, Argentina have a wealth of attacking options- Messi, Aguero (Maradona's son-in-law, by the way), Tevez, Milito, Palermo, Pastore and Lavezzi to name but 7- providing they can work together, Maradona could well become only the 2ndmn, after Franz Beckenbaur, to win the World Cup as player and manager- now that would make for an eventful press conference

Nigeria
The Super Eagles have qualified once again, and seem to have fostered a better team spirit and are better organised under Swedish coach Lars Lagerback. In Vincent Enyeama, they have one of Africa's best goalkeepers, and he has infront of him a strong defence that was the backbone of their progress to the semi-finals of the African Nations Cup earlier this year. Infront of them they have the likes of Dickson Etuhu and John Obi Mikel, who while offering tenacity, do lack creativity, a problem replicated throughout the team- Lagerback's concern won't be with the ability of Yakubu and Obafemi Martins, it will be who will create chances for them. However, as long as they can keep themselves together as a team, they should progress from the group

South Korea
Semi-finalists in 2002, but have been a shadow of that side since then, failing to get out of their group in 2006. Coach Huh Jung-Moo's side contain a handful of survivors from 2002, amongst them 37-year-old goalkeeper Lee Woon-Jae. Going forward, they do have some quality- another 2002 survivor, Park Ji-Sung is one of their "Fab Four" of attacking players, also including Celtic's Ki Sung Yong, Bolton's Lee Chung-Yong and Park Chu-Young of Monaco- and based on their qualifying campaign and subsequent friendlies, scoring goals won't be an issue. However, it is the defence where there are concerns- they haven't had a stable central defensive pairing, and they have shown a worrying fondness for conceding goals at set pieces. If Huh Jung-Moo cannot correct this, then they're going home early

Greece
Was the word in 2004, but has since been replaced by The Bird. Veteran German coach Otto Rehhagel is still in charge and the football is still pretty dreadful- not much has changed since their triumphant showing in 2004, and their less triumphant showing in 2008. Expect them to be robust, physical and a threat from set pieces (watch out South Korea), and don't be surprised if Rehhagel opts for a back 3 (or 5), although one can assume that, even if they manage to make it out of the group, the Greek FA won't exactly be liberal with their bonuses. Panathinaikos youngster Sotiris Ninis has been tipped as a star of the future, and if the defence behind him remains solid, he could create the chances for the likes of Fanis Gekas, Georgios Samaras and Angelos Charisteas (scorer of the winner in the EURO 2004 final) to fire the Greeks into the 2nd round

The bets for Group B:
Argentina to win Group B: best price 5/11 with expekt.com
Nigeria to win 4 points: best price 3/1 with Paddy Power
South Korea top goalscorer Park Chu-Young: best price 5/1 with Betfred
Greece stage of elimination 2nd round: best price 11/4 with sportingbet