The World Cup So Far Part 1

After the first week of matches, here are a few things we've learned from South Africa 2010 so far:

The Contenders- South American sides on top
At this stage, the most likely winners of the tournament are Argentina and Brazil. Diego Maradona's side possess such potency going forward that, even with some slight uncertainties over their defence (one has to wonder whether or not makeshift right-back Jonas Gutierrez would cope with an Arjen Robben up against him, with only Javier Mascherano likely to offer any help from midfield), they could simply outscore teams with their array of attacking talent. Brazil have the ominous look of a team that, unlike previous Brazil sides, can sacrifice flair and grind out results even when they are not playing well. They have no such doubts at right-back, with Maicon likely to be a key attacking outlet. Also among the favourites at this stage are Germany (despite their loss to Serbia, they should still make at least the quarter-finals) and Holland, who, like Brazil, have added extra steel and organisation to their undoubted attacking talent- they should also be able to add Arjen Robben to their side in the later stages.

Of the other heavyweights, Spain have work to do. Along with the Barcelona side from whom some of this seleccion is drawn, their playing style has been found out. Jose Mourinho and Ottmar Hitzfeld have both shown that, by congesting the centre of the park when not in possession and forcing the opposition into the wide areas, and by avoiding trying to retain possesstion in the centre and by moving the ball quickly to the front, Spain and Barcelona can be stopped. Vicente Del Bosque seems reluctant to change his ways, although he may have to consider starting with Jesus Navas on the right wing to try and beat Honduras, who will no doubt copy the Hitzfeld model. France are heading for a disgraceful early exit and deservedly so. A similar fate may well await England- even if they make it out of their group, a tough 2nd round tie awaits them against either Germany, a vibrant Ghana or a steely Serbia. Italy, even taking into account their tradition of starting a tournament slowly. don't look anything like potential winners- quarter-finals at best for them on current form.

Of the other sides, Chile, Uruguay and Mexico have all looked impressive- it would be no surprise to see at least 1 of them in the quarter-finals. Chile's madcap 3-3-1-3 formation, combined with some slick, accurate passing at high tempo made them a joy to watch against Honduras, with Alexis Sanchez on the right of the 3 man attack particularly impressive. Uruguay were solid if unspectacular in their opener against France, but were a class above against South Africa- coach Oscar Tabarez moving Diego Forlan into the trequartista position working beautifully, as Forlan ran the show, continually finding space behind South Africa's flat midfield (more on that later). Mexico were equally impressive with their fluid 4-3-3 system, full of neat passing and movement, with Guillermo Franco the pivot in attack off whom the livewire Giovani Dos Santos and Carlos Vela can operate.

The Formations- The Death of 4-4-2
As I mentioned before, the South American sides have had the edge so far- but intriguingly, one thing that all the contenders mentioned have in common is that none of them (Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Holland, Mexico, Chile and Uruguay) play 4-4-2. Argentina play a quasi-4-3-3, which almost becomes a diamond 4-4-2 when Messi drops away from Higuain and Tevez. Having Mascherano in the DMC positions allows Di Maria the freedom to push on as an orthodox left-winger, with Veron (or Maxi Rodriguez) playing more centrally. Brazil play a fairly regulation 4-2-3-1, with 2 holding midfielders in Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo allowing Maicon and Michel Bastos bombing forward from the full-back positions. Germany also play 4-2-3-1, although their 2 central midfield players (Schweinsteiger and Khedira) are given more license to push forward- in actual fact, when Phillip Lahm pushes on, their system almost becomes a back 3, with the more defensively-minded Holger Badstuber sitting back and moving more centrally, with right-sided centre-back Arne Friedrich covering Lahm. For Holland, replace the 2 DMCs with Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong, until they both get suspended. Mexico, as aforementioned, play a very fluid 4-3-3, with the emphasis being on moving the ball quickly and accurately, with width being provided by Carlos Salcido from left-back, and Efrain Juarez from the right. Chile's 3-3-1-3 formation has made them arguably the best team to watch so far- their game against Spain should be a treat, while Uruguay moved from a back 3 against France to a 4-3-1-2 against South Africa designed to allow Diego Forlan to dictate the game against a flat 4-4-2.

Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group A

Right, time for me to start looking forward to the World Cup, with kick-off in South Africa just 3 weeks away. Between now and then, I'll be going through each group individually with this blog's usual mix of statistical-based analysis and witty banter, with Graeme hopefully weighing in with his tuppence worth along the way

Group A
This looks like being a surprisingly open group, with a below-par France up against hosts South Africa, an ever-improving Mexico and a Uruguay side containing a number of individuals playing at the highest level in Europe

France
After a disastrous EURO 2008, the question everyone was asking was "Who will replace Raymond Domenech as coach?" The answer was, er, Raymond Domenech (although Laurent Blanc takes over after the tournament). France were unconvincing to say the least in qualifying, only making it through by their fingertips. Domenech has again made some baffling selection decisions (Samir Nasri and Karim Benzema didn't even make the final 30, while Andre-Pierre Gignac did) and there's still a great deal of uncertainty in some positions (William Gallas has yet to find a regular central defensive patner, while the identity of their main striker is anyone's guess). If they don't get going quickly, then another embarassing group-stage exit beckons

South Africa
World Cup host ntions have traditionally performed well in their home tournaments, but South Africa aren't being considered as potential winners by anyone outside the most optimistic branches of their own, vuvuzela-playing support. A look at their squad reveals a distinct lack of experience at the highest level (only 5 of their squad play in one of Europe's strongest leagues), and coaching changes, along with mixed friendly results, have not helped their cause. Still, they were impressive in last summer's Confederations Cup, reaching the semi-finals, and are arguably best-placed to sneak into the 2nd round if either France or Mexico slip up

Mexico
Javier Aguirre returned to the helm after Sven-Goran Eriksson's disastrous tenure as coach came to an end, and has led the team to a 5th consecutive World Cup- they went out in the 2nd round in each of the last 4 tournaments, so the target for Aguirre's men is simple: the quarter-finals are the target. With an increasing number of players plying their trade in Europe (one to watch: left-winger Andres Guardado) and plenty of options in attack (soon-to-be Manchester United centre-forward Javier Hernandez among them) supported by a strong defence (although doubts linger over Rafael Marquez's match fitness), Aguirre's side are well-equipped to advance from the group stage- finishing top will be of importance to Mexico so as to avoid a likely meeting with Argentina, their conquerors after extra-time in 2006 (y'all must surely remember THAT Maxi Rodriguez goal), in the 2nd round

Uruguay
The last time Uruguay got beyond the group stages of the World Cup (Italia 90), their manager was one Oscar Washington Tabarez. Back in 2006, Tabarez returned to the fold, and led Uruguay to South Africa, but only just- they needed to play-off victory over Costa Rica after finishing 5th in the South American qualifying group. In attack they do have some quality individuals, most notably Diego Forlan, Luis Suarez and Nicolas Lodeiro, while behind them expect the usual "physical" stuff from Uruguay. It's a style unlikely to make them many friends, and it's unlikely to see them get past the group stage

So that's the tems in group A, here's a few bets worth thinking about in Group A:
France to win 4 points: best price 4/1 with Bodog
Mexico stage of elimination- quarter-finals: best price 11/2 with bet365
Soth Africa top goalscorer Teko Modise: best price 12/1 with Skybet
Uruguay group goals scored lass than goals conceded: best price 20/19 with bwin