Friday 5 March 2010

Arsenal v Burnley, Saturday 6th March

My Thoughts
Some say Brian Clough signed him without seeing him play, telling him "If you're crap, Ronnie Fenton signed you. If you're good, I signed you". And that on Wednesdays, he insists on tying his shoes with his teeth. All we know is, he's called Brian Laws, and dear sweet jeebus does he have a tough task on Saturday away at an Arsenal side who are now within sniffing distance of the top of the Premier League.

The Verdict
Last Saturday's victory at Stoke was a massive one for Arsenal; in just about the most adverse conditions possible (having seen Aaron Ramsey suffer such a horrific injury, having failed to deal with the long-throw threat of Rory Delap and being thoroughly bullied off the park) Arsene Wenger's side managed to secure victory with 2 late goals. At home, Wenger's side have an excellent 11-1-2 record in the league this season, averaging 2.71 goals per game- that average goes above 3 if you take out the top 6 sides in the league. Burnley, on t'other hand, have a well-documented dreadful away record, even by the standards of this season's Premier League, in which most teams seem to have a case of Awaydayitis- just the 43 goals conceded in 14 away games so far, in which they have collected a grand total of 1 point. Brian Laws has not arrested a slide that started in the winter months, and it's difficult to see how, even if they go with a more circumspect approach than the attacking style which they deployed away at Aston Villa, they can stop Arsenal scoring a few here. Home win

The Bet
You'll not get much better than Blue Square's 1/7 on the home win, therefore have a look at a few other markets. With Nicklas Bendtner fit again, Arsenal now have one of their most important players available again, and Bendtner has to be considered on the anytime scorers market. Arsenal to win to nil should also be considered, given that Burnley aren't big scorers anywhere right now, and will surely adopt a damage limitation strategy. Along those lines, over 2.5 goals looks a decent bet given Arsenal's firepower, but this writer wouldn't go crazy on the number of goals to be scored- with a midweek Champions League game with Porto coming up, don't be surprised if Arsenal settle for perhaps 3 or 4.

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