My Thoughts
The task for Alan Shearer's side here is simple: they must win. While Hull are just 1 point (and with an inferior goal difference) ahead, Shearer will know not to expect any favours from Sir Alex Ferguson, who will surely take a side (this writer is reluctant to use the word "weakened" to describe the side that Manchester United will field on Sunday: the likes of Darron Gibson, Danny Welbeck, Tomasz Kuszczak and Richard Eckersley would be likely starters for Hull) to the KC Stadium with 2 eyes on Rome. He will also be aware that, while an away win is required, Newcastle have managed just 2 of them this season in the Premier League. Their recent 3-1 win over fellow strugglers Middlesbrough proved something of a false dawn, followed as it was by a 1-0 defeat at home to Fulham. Not only did they lose the match, they also lost the services of centre-back (and many supporters' player of the season) Sebastien Bassong to a red card. He may not fancy Championship football next season.
Having said all that, Villa haven't exactly been firing on all cylinders of late themselves. A 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford (appreciative nod to Kiko Macheda) not only extinguished any hope Martin O'Neill's side had of Champions League football next season, but also exposed Villa as something of a long-ball outfit, reliant on the knock-downs of Carew or Heskey in order to utilise the pace of Young and Agbonlahor. They have won just once since that match. Their home record this season (6-9-3) does leave a lot to be desired, and will need to be improved upon next season if they are to break into the top 4. Villa were poor in both their last 2 games, only claiming a point against Middlesbrough due to some woeful defending. Their season is very much ending with something of a whimper, the lack of depth in their squad having been exposed.
The Verdict
Newcastle have managed only 3 clean sheets away from home this season. It gets worse- all 3 of those were kept by Shay Given. However, at this stage of the season, it would be folly to get too bogged down by statistics. Instead, this match will require Newcastle's players to be brave, to show character, and to have quality to take any chances that may come their way. The side will be well aware that they have massively underachieved this season, and now must pull off a result here to ensure this season is a disappointment, not a disaster. They might just do it.
The Bet
Newcastle can be backed at 6/4 to stay up with Skybet. There is just about enough quality in the side to get a result against an out-of-sorts Aston Villa side. In terms of the match itself, Newcastle can be backed at a best price of 11/5 to win with extrabet. Now let's hope theses prices stay where they are, after the massive pre-match movements on the prices last night
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