My Thoughts
Bolton are, to all intents and purposes, safe. 39 points on the board with 3 games to go, Gary Megson's side can probably start planning their summer holidays safe in the knowledge that another season in the top flight is forthcoming. The same cannot be said for Sunderland, who, despite a recent 1-0 victory over fellow strugglers Hull City, are still in big trouble, and probably deserve to be, given their recent form. The Black Cats have managed just 3 wins away from the Stadium of Light this season, and go to the Reebok Stadium on Saturday knowing that only Manchester United and Fulham have won there since January. The reverse fixture earlier this season saw a 4-1 victory for Bolton which was also Roy Keane's last game in charge. Ricky Sbragia takes Sunderland to the Reebok Stadium knowing that his job as well is not 100% secure. With the exception of the reverse fixture, meetings between these 2 sides have tended to be low-scoring affairs. With Bolton needing just 1 point to mathematically secure top-flight football next season, and a poor Sunderland side desperate for any kind of result, this writer won't be expecting a free-flowing goalfest.
The Verdict
It's difficult to see this being a high-scoring game. In 17 home games this season, Bolton have scored 20 goals (averaging 1.17 per game) and condeded 20. Sunderland have managed to score just 12 goals in 17 away games (averaging 0.70 per game), and have conceded 26 (averaging 1.52 per game). With neither side in particularly great form, I'd be thinking a draw here.
The Bet
The draw can be backed at a best price of 12/5 with Boylesports (who also happen to be Sunderland's shirt sponsors). Alternatively, have a look at under 2.5 goals available at a general 4/6
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