My Thoughts
Stoke have made a solid, if unspectacular start to this season, a start which has in many ways been a microcosm of their performance last season. Their defensive record, particularly at home, was the bedrock of their survival last season, and clean sheets in each of their last 3 matches bodes well. In terms of style of play (or rather lack of it), Stoke's opponents, Chelsea, are actually more similar than many people would have you believe- both are well-organised, difficult to break down, and tend not to play with much width across the midfield. Chelsea, with a fixture schedule that has been generous compared to that of some of their rivals, have started well under Carlo Ancelotti, with a maximum of 12 points from their opening 4 games.
The Verdict
One's first thoughts on seeing this game on the fixture list this weekend will most likely be "away win". And with good reason- Chelsea claimed a comfortable 2-0 victory at the Britannia last season. Stoke can point to claiming 4 points at the Britannia against the top 4 clubs last season, and have looked reasonably sound defensively so far this campaign, and could even cling to the hope that Ancelotti may be tempted to rest players after an international week with Porto to play on Tuesday, but this should be a fairly routine away win for Chelsea.
The Bet
At 2/5, Chelsea to win outright represents little value as a single. Therefore, under 2.5 goals is well worth a look- in 19 Stoke home league games last season, this bet would have come in 14 times, as well as in 4 of their 5 games so far this season
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