My Thoughts
Confidence. A water-tight defence. Two good full-backs. A quality central midfield. Balance.
Judging by last Saturday's 6-2 (going on 26-2) horsing by Barcelona, the above is a list of things that Real Madrid do not currently have. Now they must pick themselves off the floor and travel to the Mestalla, to face a Valencia side scrapping it out for a top 3 finish. Valencia's resurgence this season is in no small part due to the goalscoring exploits of David Villa- only Samuel Eto'o has managed more than his 25 league goals this season. A mention also for midfielder Juan Manuel Mata, who has chipped in with another 10. Valencia's strong form this season is based more on attack than defence- while their goals for tally of 62 is the 4th best in La Liga, they only have the 9th best defence, with 50 goals conceded in La Liga this season. This writer will now, however, avoid going into detail about Real's stats. For them, the mission is simple: they simply MUST pick themselves up after last Saturday and win to maintain any sort of pressure on Barcelona: after their previous defeat to Barcelona (2-0 in the Camp Nou) they went unbeaten in La Liga until last Saturday, winning 17 and drawing 1 out of 18 games. A similar run is needed between now and the end of the season if they are to pull off an improbable victory.
The Verdict
This is an extremely difficult one to call. Valencia have not kept a clean sheet in 6 games, and only Barcelona have scored more (21 more, mind) than Real Madrid this season, so Juande Ramos' side will be hopeful of scoring: however, it's shutting David Villa and co out that will prove to be problematic. Real's record in the Mestalla is good, however, and they did win the reverse fixture 1-0 earlier this season. Games between the 2 sides have also tended to be slightly lower-scoring affairs. Some may feel that this writer is mad (not without justification, too) to back Real, but they are still capable of scoring Real to edge it. Just
The Bet
Real can be backed outright at 2/1 with Bet365. Alternatively, there are numerous tempting options on the anytime goalscorer front. Have a look at David Villa (best price 6/4 with Coral), Gonzalo Higuain (23/10 Boylesports) and Raul (11/5 Boylesports), although it might be an idea to wait until teamsheets are announced before backing anyone- it's not beyond the realms of possibility Madrid could go for a more defensive approach in the Mestalla.
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