My Thoughts
(apologies if I mis-spell Shakhtar at any point)
This new-fangled Europa League which is set to replace the UEFA Cup has a lot to live up to: one of the glorious things about the UEFA Cup is that it is absolutely impossible to pick a winner- kudos to you if you put money on either of these sides making the final this year back in September. With the UEFA Cup coming to an end, both these sides want to be the last team to get their name on the trophy (kudos to anyone who can tell me how many different winners there have previously been of the UEFA Cup). Werder Bremen will be looking to add to the Cup Winners Cup they won in 1992 (beating Monaco in the final, who were managed by a certain Arsene Wenger), while for Shakhtar Donetsk the final in Istanbul represents their first appearance in a European final, as they look to continue the Soviet revolution that has swept through the UEFA Cup in recent years: CSKA Moscow winners in 2005 and Zenit St Petersburg in 2008 both won the huge (in size if not status) trophy, and Shakhtar themselves took care of both Dinamo Kyiv and CSKA Moscow en route to Istanbul.
Recent UEFA Cup finals, with the exception of last year's final, where a Rangers side Karl Rappan would have found eye-watering were defeated by Andriy Arshavin, do tend to be excellent games- witness Sevilla in 2006 and 2007, CSKA's stunning 2nd half comeback in Lisbon in 2005, and the end-to-end ding-dongs served up in 2001, 2002 and 2003.
Both managers are expecting a tough, exciting match. Mircea Lucescu, Shakhtar boss: "Bremen are always attack-minded, they are a very physical team. Our style is based on our skill". Thomas Schaaf, Werder boss: "We have to be assertive. It will be a hot match but a final is never easy".
Werder travel to Istanbul with a number of key players missing, most notably suspended Brazilian playmater Diego, scorer of 6 of their 15 UEFA Cup goals this season, although also missing are Portuguese forward Hugo Almeida, giant centre-back Per Mertesacker (set to be replaced by the equally giant Sebastian Prodl) and doubts remain over the fitness of captain Frank Baumann. Shakhtar are almost at full-strength, with only midfield anchorman Tomas Hubschmann suspended. Polish international Mariusz Lewandowski is set to replace him, and will be tasked with monitoring Bremen's main playmaker in the absence of Diego, Mesut Ozil.
From a purely statistical standpoint, Shakhtar have the edge. In their European campaign, they have scored 23 goals (an average of 1.64 per game) compared to Bremen's 22 (1.57 per game) and conceded 12 (0.86 per game) compared to Bremen's 21 (1.5 per game). Having said that, there is no doubting Bremen's ability to attack, create chances and score goals, but it remains to be seen how much the loss of Diego and Almeida will harm their chances, given the slightly pourous nature of their defence, which was further exposed in a 3-1 home defeat against Karlsruhe at the weekend.
The Verdict
This should be an entertaining game. Both sides are well capable of scoring goals (Bremen have scored 3 times in 3 of their last 4 UEFA Cup games, while Shakhtar's frontline consisting of a number of talented Brazilians along with local lad Olexander Gladkiy can be relied on to score), and, as Lucescu hinted, there is something of a clash in styles between the two sides. This one might just require extra time, after something of a goalfest in 90 minutes, but, on paper at least, Shakhtar may just have the edge.
The Bet
This pundit must confess to being somewhat mystified by certain bookmakers awarding favouritism to Bremen. Shakhtar are still available at 9/5 to win with Betfred, but move quickly- a number of bookmakers are shortening Shakhtar as I write this. It's also well worth looking at over 2.5 goals at 10/11 with Stan James. Also, without Diego and Almeida, even more emphasis will be placed on Claudio Pizarro to produce upfron for Bremen. He's available at 2/1 with William Hill to score anytime
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