A follow-up to my preview of a few of the World Cup Golden Boot contenders (A follow-up! I've started a feature on here and am actually continuing with it!) as we look at a few more likely contenders:
Neymar (best odds 14/1 general)
The star man for the hosts, despite being just 22 he already has an impressive record for the Selecao of 33 goals in 48 appearances (including the Golden Ball award for Best Player at last summer's Confederations Cup). Likely to be deployed by Luiz Felipe Scolari initially from the left, with creative license to move infield, in a not dis-similar manner to the previously discussed Cristiano Ronaldo, a generous group should give Neymar opportunities to get at least 2 or 3 goals under his belt before the really serious business starts (even if Ross County's Yann Songo'o makes it into the Cameroon squad. 2 factors that work against Neymar, though, are his club form at Barcelona and the lack of other real stars among his team-mates. Firstly, while a record of 15 goals in 40 games is reasonable, it's difficult to look on his 1st season as a complete success- at times he appears to have upset the balance of what was an exceptionally well-oiled machine- at times, it's been difficult to justify his inclusion ahead of Alexis Sanchez (more on him later) and Pedro. As for the rest of the Brazil team, how much chances will the likes of Hulk, Fred & Jo really create for him? Brazil, though, should go far enough into the tournament for him to be among the leading Golden Boot contenders, though, and his price of 14/1 will only shorten as the tournament goes on
Karim Benzema (40/1 with Bet Victor)
Now here's an interesting contender. A true Number 9 hitting prime goalscoring form for a much-fancied outsider with a winnable group, Benzema has to an extent flown under the radar until recently- his price of 40/1 has shortened in the last few months from 66/1- indeed, some bookmakers have him as short as 20/1. Operating in a more central role than many that have been looked at so far, a strong supporting cast featuring the brilliance on the wing of Franck Ribery, the guile and passing range of Yohan Cabaye, the brute force, power and drive of Paul Pogba and the wildcard Antoine Griezmann should create plenty of chances for Benzema, who possesses all the qualities one would desire of a centre-forward. Opening games against Switzerland, Ecuador and Honduras should see Benzema rack up at least 2 or 3 goals early on in the tournament- with 6 goals being the average number being scored by the Golden Boot winner in the 8 tournaments where the last 4 play a total of 7 games, this should bring Benzema right into contention for the individual prize. If his team are good enough to compete for the teams' ultimate prize, Benzema could very well take the Golden Boot
Sunday, 27 April 2014
Tuesday, 22 April 2014
The First of What Will Hopefully Be Many But Probably End Up About Three
Well then. We're rapidly approaching the World Cup (June 12th is the big date), and in the runup I intend to put a few entries on here about all manner of World Cup related patter. For tonight's musing, let's have a look at the main individual trinket on offer in Brazil, the Golden Boot.
What History Tells Us
Almost exclusively throughout its history, the Golden Boot has been won by either a well-known, established, experienced centre-forward (e.g. Miroslav Klose in 2006, Ronaldo in 2002, Gerd Muller in 1974) or a breakout superstar from relative obscurity (e.g Thomas Muller in 2010, Davor Suker in 1998, Salvatore Schillaci in 1990). With the exceptions of Muller in 2010 and Hristo Stoichkov in 1994, the winners could also all legitimately be described as out-and-out centre-forwards operating in traditional Number 9 territory. 5 Brazilians (Garrincha & Vava shared the award in 1962), 3 Germans (Gerd & Thomas Muller, along with Miroslav Klose in 2006), 2 Italians (Schillaci & Paolo Rossi in 1982) and 2 Argentinians have won the Golden Boot, a spread that bears a passing resemblance to the spread of teams who have won the World Cup, although only 4 World Cup winning teams (Brazil in 2002 the most recent) have also had the Golden Boot winner among their ranks. Having said that, only joint-winner Oleg Salenko in 1994 has won the award playing for a team who failed to make it beyond the 1st round of the tournament.
This Year's Contenders
With all that in mid, let's have a look at a few of the main contenders for the Golden Boot this summer:
Lionel Messi (best odds: 9/1 with Coral)
Despite not having the best season domestically, he has to be a serious contender, even with lingering doubts over his fitness after missing 2 months earlier this season. Argentina's group is a very accommodating one, with Switzerland or Ecuador their most likely Round of 16 opponents- opportunities to score shouldn't be in short supply. On the other hand, this could work against Messi & Argentina- no disrespect to Iran (with Carlos Queiroz in charge) & Nigeria (bundles of talent but a complete mess organisationally), but it's not difficult to imagine both adopting a "damage limitiation" mindset and seeking purely to deny Argentina. Given those aforementioned fitness concerns (and bear in mind he's not a pure centre-forward), it's also plausible that Messi could be used sparingly in the early stages of the tournament (particularly if Argentina qualify for Round 2 with a game to spare). Definitely to be considered if you're willing to back him at as short as 9/1
Cristiano Ronaldo (14/1 general)
Likely to start from the left for Portugal with some sort of centre-forward (possibly Hugo Almeida) in a more conventional Number 9/placeholder role. Don't expect him to have to do much defensive work, either- he'll remain high up the pitch, with Paulo Bento looking to exploit him as the most devastatingly brilliant counter-attacker in the world. He'll have to carry the team a lot, though- this is far from an outstanding Portugal side, and what may ultimately stop him from winning the Golden Boot is that Portugal simply won't go far enough into the tournament. Avoid
Romelu Lukaku (33/1 general)
Now here's a prospect. Having a great season at club level (without an energy-sapping European campaign) with his future wide open leading the line for a much-fancied dark horse, Romelu Lukaku could make a real name for himself in Brazil. Belgium have a winnable group, and will fancy themselves to at least trouble whoever emerges from Group G as their 2nd Round opponent. A supporting cast of Hazard, De Bruyne, Mirallas & Witsel amongst others should create plenty of chances for Lukaku. Definitely one to watch, at decent each-way money too
Miroslav Klose (50/1 Spreadex)
It's what he does. Still playing regularly for Lazio, and likely to have as good a supporting cast as anyone (Muller, Reus, Podolski & Kroos won't all start. Draxler may not even make the squad), Klose simply cannot be discounted, even at 35 (he turns 36 3 days before the tournament starts). Only Ronaldo has more World Cup finals goals, and only Gerd Muller has as many goals for Germany
I'll run through a few more names in the coming weeks
What History Tells Us
Almost exclusively throughout its history, the Golden Boot has been won by either a well-known, established, experienced centre-forward (e.g. Miroslav Klose in 2006, Ronaldo in 2002, Gerd Muller in 1974) or a breakout superstar from relative obscurity (e.g Thomas Muller in 2010, Davor Suker in 1998, Salvatore Schillaci in 1990). With the exceptions of Muller in 2010 and Hristo Stoichkov in 1994, the winners could also all legitimately be described as out-and-out centre-forwards operating in traditional Number 9 territory. 5 Brazilians (Garrincha & Vava shared the award in 1962), 3 Germans (Gerd & Thomas Muller, along with Miroslav Klose in 2006), 2 Italians (Schillaci & Paolo Rossi in 1982) and 2 Argentinians have won the Golden Boot, a spread that bears a passing resemblance to the spread of teams who have won the World Cup, although only 4 World Cup winning teams (Brazil in 2002 the most recent) have also had the Golden Boot winner among their ranks. Having said that, only joint-winner Oleg Salenko in 1994 has won the award playing for a team who failed to make it beyond the 1st round of the tournament.
This Year's Contenders
With all that in mid, let's have a look at a few of the main contenders for the Golden Boot this summer:
Lionel Messi (best odds: 9/1 with Coral)
Despite not having the best season domestically, he has to be a serious contender, even with lingering doubts over his fitness after missing 2 months earlier this season. Argentina's group is a very accommodating one, with Switzerland or Ecuador their most likely Round of 16 opponents- opportunities to score shouldn't be in short supply. On the other hand, this could work against Messi & Argentina- no disrespect to Iran (with Carlos Queiroz in charge) & Nigeria (bundles of talent but a complete mess organisationally), but it's not difficult to imagine both adopting a "damage limitiation" mindset and seeking purely to deny Argentina. Given those aforementioned fitness concerns (and bear in mind he's not a pure centre-forward), it's also plausible that Messi could be used sparingly in the early stages of the tournament (particularly if Argentina qualify for Round 2 with a game to spare). Definitely to be considered if you're willing to back him at as short as 9/1
Cristiano Ronaldo (14/1 general)
Likely to start from the left for Portugal with some sort of centre-forward (possibly Hugo Almeida) in a more conventional Number 9/placeholder role. Don't expect him to have to do much defensive work, either- he'll remain high up the pitch, with Paulo Bento looking to exploit him as the most devastatingly brilliant counter-attacker in the world. He'll have to carry the team a lot, though- this is far from an outstanding Portugal side, and what may ultimately stop him from winning the Golden Boot is that Portugal simply won't go far enough into the tournament. Avoid
Romelu Lukaku (33/1 general)
Now here's a prospect. Having a great season at club level (without an energy-sapping European campaign) with his future wide open leading the line for a much-fancied dark horse, Romelu Lukaku could make a real name for himself in Brazil. Belgium have a winnable group, and will fancy themselves to at least trouble whoever emerges from Group G as their 2nd Round opponent. A supporting cast of Hazard, De Bruyne, Mirallas & Witsel amongst others should create plenty of chances for Lukaku. Definitely one to watch, at decent each-way money too
Miroslav Klose (50/1 Spreadex)
It's what he does. Still playing regularly for Lazio, and likely to have as good a supporting cast as anyone (Muller, Reus, Podolski & Kroos won't all start. Draxler may not even make the squad), Klose simply cannot be discounted, even at 35 (he turns 36 3 days before the tournament starts). Only Ronaldo has more World Cup finals goals, and only Gerd Muller has as many goals for Germany
I'll run through a few more names in the coming weeks
Monday, 7 April 2014
When They're Playing In Your Town
Evening, y'all. It's been a while and all that, but here's a new entry from me. Various stuff you'd expect to see and some random stuff too
Good Old Tipping
Let's start with a look at this week's Champions League quarter-final 2nd legs, beginning with Bayern Munchen v Manchester United. Firstly, it's probably best to disregard the respective results of both teams at the weekend- both made wholesale changes to their starting XIs to what they're likely to field on Wednesday (plus the intricate interplay between MUFC's playmakers Juan Mata & Shinji Kagawa will most likely be shelved in favour of a contain & counter approach). Make no mistake, though- in the 1st leg United got at Bayern with an approach that, while not exactly expansive, was effective to a certain extent. Witness also Pep Guardiola's tetchy and frankly bizarre exchange with Guardian journalist Jamie Jackson in the post match press conference. One has to wonder, though, if Bayern will now find an extra gear to shift into- even with Javi Martinez & Bastian Schweinsteiger missing through suspension, replacements of the quality of Dante & Mario Gotze should mean they won't be too sorely missed. United can trouble Bayern, even if qualification may be beyond them. The bet here methinks in Both Teams to Score at 11/10 general. Elsewhere, Atletico Madrid & Barcelona are also tied at 1-1 after the 1st leg of their tie. These two have been extremely closely matched in their 4 meetings so far, with all 4 ending in draws (a 1-1 and an 0-0 at both the Vicente Calderon and the Camp Nou). Another low-scoring match looks on the cards here, with under 2.5 goals being the call at 4/5 general
A Lottery That's Actually Not A Lottery
The Grand National on Saturday was fun, wasn't it? I certainly thought so, although that's hardly surprising when you consider that, for the 2nd year running, I had picked the winner. How do I do it? Simple, really- I treat it in much the same way as any other horse race, doing my research, studying form and the like. It's important to remember when dealing with the National, though, that at over 4 miles, it's considerably longer than almost all of the races the horses will have competed, therefore form alone isn't always beneficial. For example, my selection of Pineau de Re had competed in a 3 mile race at Cheltenham last month and finished 3rd. Not much, on its own, but the horse actually finished extremely strongly, hinting at there being plenty more stamina in his legs, as well as the discipline to stay in the chasing pack early on, before showing a turn in pace near the end- none of these qualities were demonstrated in particular abundance by any of the supposed favourites such as Teaforthree and Monbeg Dude. I'll try and remember and post this in the run up to next year's race
Myth Debunking
Time for me to clear something up. It seems a few of you fell for my Facebook April Fool's Day declaration of support for the No campaign. Let me assure you that I shall be doing no such thing- I'll be keeping my opinion between me and the ballot box
And Finally....
I only caught extra-time and the pre-match reports of trouble in the Grassmarket, but yesterday's Ramsdens Cup Final brought back memories of my time at the League Cup Final with some Aberdeen fans last month. Similar to yesterday, the match itself was a fairly turgid affair, yet the clearly nervous 40,000 Aberdeen fans relentless continued to back their side, with a grand total of 0 arrests, in compete contrast to yesterday. There's a mental strength about this Aberdeen side that's getting them some big results where previously they would fail. It will be fascinating to monitor their progress in the next few years, especially as they will almost certainly be embarking on a Europa League campaign next season
"YES! YES! YES"!
Good Old Tipping
Let's start with a look at this week's Champions League quarter-final 2nd legs, beginning with Bayern Munchen v Manchester United. Firstly, it's probably best to disregard the respective results of both teams at the weekend- both made wholesale changes to their starting XIs to what they're likely to field on Wednesday (plus the intricate interplay between MUFC's playmakers Juan Mata & Shinji Kagawa will most likely be shelved in favour of a contain & counter approach). Make no mistake, though- in the 1st leg United got at Bayern with an approach that, while not exactly expansive, was effective to a certain extent. Witness also Pep Guardiola's tetchy and frankly bizarre exchange with Guardian journalist Jamie Jackson in the post match press conference. One has to wonder, though, if Bayern will now find an extra gear to shift into- even with Javi Martinez & Bastian Schweinsteiger missing through suspension, replacements of the quality of Dante & Mario Gotze should mean they won't be too sorely missed. United can trouble Bayern, even if qualification may be beyond them. The bet here methinks in Both Teams to Score at 11/10 general. Elsewhere, Atletico Madrid & Barcelona are also tied at 1-1 after the 1st leg of their tie. These two have been extremely closely matched in their 4 meetings so far, with all 4 ending in draws (a 1-1 and an 0-0 at both the Vicente Calderon and the Camp Nou). Another low-scoring match looks on the cards here, with under 2.5 goals being the call at 4/5 general
A Lottery That's Actually Not A Lottery
The Grand National on Saturday was fun, wasn't it? I certainly thought so, although that's hardly surprising when you consider that, for the 2nd year running, I had picked the winner. How do I do it? Simple, really- I treat it in much the same way as any other horse race, doing my research, studying form and the like. It's important to remember when dealing with the National, though, that at over 4 miles, it's considerably longer than almost all of the races the horses will have competed, therefore form alone isn't always beneficial. For example, my selection of Pineau de Re had competed in a 3 mile race at Cheltenham last month and finished 3rd. Not much, on its own, but the horse actually finished extremely strongly, hinting at there being plenty more stamina in his legs, as well as the discipline to stay in the chasing pack early on, before showing a turn in pace near the end- none of these qualities were demonstrated in particular abundance by any of the supposed favourites such as Teaforthree and Monbeg Dude. I'll try and remember and post this in the run up to next year's race
Myth Debunking
Time for me to clear something up. It seems a few of you fell for my Facebook April Fool's Day declaration of support for the No campaign. Let me assure you that I shall be doing no such thing- I'll be keeping my opinion between me and the ballot box
And Finally....
I only caught extra-time and the pre-match reports of trouble in the Grassmarket, but yesterday's Ramsdens Cup Final brought back memories of my time at the League Cup Final with some Aberdeen fans last month. Similar to yesterday, the match itself was a fairly turgid affair, yet the clearly nervous 40,000 Aberdeen fans relentless continued to back their side, with a grand total of 0 arrests, in compete contrast to yesterday. There's a mental strength about this Aberdeen side that's getting them some big results where previously they would fail. It will be fascinating to monitor their progress in the next few years, especially as they will almost certainly be embarking on a Europa League campaign next season
"YES! YES! YES"!
Monday, 13 January 2014
If Jake The Snake Can Do It.....
'Tis the time for glorious comebacks, so here I am blogging again. A couple of topics for tonight, so let's get started with some good old-fashioned tipping:
Aston Villa v Arsenal
This one looks as if it will be decided not by which team will play better and win, but which team is least likely to make a catastrophic error to giftwrap the game to their opponents. Arsenal's love of a late-season collapse is of course well-documented, while they have of course suffered their standard quantity of season-derailing injuries- no more Theo Walcott for the season, although Olivier Giroud should be back for this one. In even more positive news, Nicklas Bendtner will miss the next few games. Villa, meanwhile, somehow find themselves in 11th place despite a mediocre season which has seen them record just 2 home wins all season. They have serious issues- Christian Benteke has gone way off the boil since signing his new contract (funny that), Andreas Weimann hasn't reproduced last season's form, their midfield (Fabian Delph aside) is desperately short on quality, while their defenders are among the finest exhibitors of physical comedy since Rik Mayall & Adrian Edmondson starred in Bottom. All that considered, it's hard not to fancy Arsenal to record another away win even at as short a price as 8/15. For something a little more adventurous, Giroud can be backed to mark his return by scoring 2 or more goals at 13/2
Anderson
So, it looms like Anderson is departing Old Trafford to head to Fiorentina. His story is one of undoubted potential that, for a variety of reasons, was never fully realised. Injuries, immaturity, a goalscoring record so bad it became a bad joke and a squad rotation policy that never allowed him the run of games that could have allowed him to truly establish himself all played their part. Anderson in a way reminds me of The 10 Minute Freeview- a tantalising glimpse of something enticing and delectable, yet never enough to truly satisfy, but just enough to ensure you'll want another look next week
"WE MAKE A GREAT TEAM. A GROIN-GRABBINGLY GREAT TEAM"
Aston Villa v Arsenal
This one looks as if it will be decided not by which team will play better and win, but which team is least likely to make a catastrophic error to giftwrap the game to their opponents. Arsenal's love of a late-season collapse is of course well-documented, while they have of course suffered their standard quantity of season-derailing injuries- no more Theo Walcott for the season, although Olivier Giroud should be back for this one. In even more positive news, Nicklas Bendtner will miss the next few games. Villa, meanwhile, somehow find themselves in 11th place despite a mediocre season which has seen them record just 2 home wins all season. They have serious issues- Christian Benteke has gone way off the boil since signing his new contract (funny that), Andreas Weimann hasn't reproduced last season's form, their midfield (Fabian Delph aside) is desperately short on quality, while their defenders are among the finest exhibitors of physical comedy since Rik Mayall & Adrian Edmondson starred in Bottom. All that considered, it's hard not to fancy Arsenal to record another away win even at as short a price as 8/15. For something a little more adventurous, Giroud can be backed to mark his return by scoring 2 or more goals at 13/2
Anderson
So, it looms like Anderson is departing Old Trafford to head to Fiorentina. His story is one of undoubted potential that, for a variety of reasons, was never fully realised. Injuries, immaturity, a goalscoring record so bad it became a bad joke and a squad rotation policy that never allowed him the run of games that could have allowed him to truly establish himself all played their part. Anderson in a way reminds me of The 10 Minute Freeview- a tantalising glimpse of something enticing and delectable, yet never enough to truly satisfy, but just enough to ensure you'll want another look next week
"WE MAKE A GREAT TEAM. A GROIN-GRABBINGLY GREAT TEAM"
Friday, 13 September 2013
Weekend Betting, 14th September
ALLOW ME TO BEG YOUR INDULGENCE!
This weekend is one of my favourites of the football season from a betting perspective- Scottish Cup 2nd Round time. I shall explain.
This is one of those rare, rare weekends where the punter genuinely has advantage to exploit over the bookmaker. The bookmakers may not admit it, but they're nowhere near as clued up on the relative strengths of the non-league sides in Scotland as those who regularly follow football at that level.
There are a few bankers to be had- Brora Rangers, Wick Academy, Edinburgh City, Inverurie Loco Works, Auchinleck Talbot, Turriff United, Fraserburgh and Spartans should all come through their ties with something to spare. As a general rule, expect most of the Highland League teams to progress in their ties with non-Highlands teams. Compared to the rest of the non-league scene in Scotland, the Highland League is very strong at the moment. A number of clubs, notably Brora, Nairn County & Formartine all have wealthy backers as they chase the play-off place at the end of next season which could earn them a place in the senior structure.
Nairn County represent the standout bet of the cup ties. Competition sponsors William Hill offer 19/5 on them winning at Linlithgow Rose, which is extremely generous considering the strength of Nairn's squad (including Daniel Moore & Stuart Leslie, 2 of the standout players at 3rd Division Elgin City last season, and former Ross County U20 captain Archie Mcphee) and their track record for raising their game in the cup competitions (just ask Clyde and Arbroath). Huntly also represent good value at Evens (again with Hills) at home to Preston Athletic
Of course, it's not just the Scottish Cup going on this weekend. There's plenty of fun to be had elsewhere, notably at Villa Park, where Aston Villa can continue their upward trend with another enterprising, vibrant display at home to a Newcastle side who were poor on their travels last season and, Coloccini and Santon aside, have a defence that still does not fully convince. Paddy Power will give you 6/5 on the home win. Going back up to Scotland for a moment, a viable case can be made for an away win in all 6 matches in the SPL- it would be no surprise to see at least 3 or 4 of Celtic, Aberdeen, ICT, Motherwell, Hibs and Dundee United claim 3 points this weekend.
And finally, just a wee reminder. If you're lucky enough to be a player with any Scottish team, then you're more than welcome to read this blog. Just don't actually place any bets based on what you read on here, eh?
This weekend is one of my favourites of the football season from a betting perspective- Scottish Cup 2nd Round time. I shall explain.
This is one of those rare, rare weekends where the punter genuinely has advantage to exploit over the bookmaker. The bookmakers may not admit it, but they're nowhere near as clued up on the relative strengths of the non-league sides in Scotland as those who regularly follow football at that level.
There are a few bankers to be had- Brora Rangers, Wick Academy, Edinburgh City, Inverurie Loco Works, Auchinleck Talbot, Turriff United, Fraserburgh and Spartans should all come through their ties with something to spare. As a general rule, expect most of the Highland League teams to progress in their ties with non-Highlands teams. Compared to the rest of the non-league scene in Scotland, the Highland League is very strong at the moment. A number of clubs, notably Brora, Nairn County & Formartine all have wealthy backers as they chase the play-off place at the end of next season which could earn them a place in the senior structure.
Nairn County represent the standout bet of the cup ties. Competition sponsors William Hill offer 19/5 on them winning at Linlithgow Rose, which is extremely generous considering the strength of Nairn's squad (including Daniel Moore & Stuart Leslie, 2 of the standout players at 3rd Division Elgin City last season, and former Ross County U20 captain Archie Mcphee) and their track record for raising their game in the cup competitions (just ask Clyde and Arbroath). Huntly also represent good value at Evens (again with Hills) at home to Preston Athletic
Of course, it's not just the Scottish Cup going on this weekend. There's plenty of fun to be had elsewhere, notably at Villa Park, where Aston Villa can continue their upward trend with another enterprising, vibrant display at home to a Newcastle side who were poor on their travels last season and, Coloccini and Santon aside, have a defence that still does not fully convince. Paddy Power will give you 6/5 on the home win. Going back up to Scotland for a moment, a viable case can be made for an away win in all 6 matches in the SPL- it would be no surprise to see at least 3 or 4 of Celtic, Aberdeen, ICT, Motherwell, Hibs and Dundee United claim 3 points this weekend.
And finally, just a wee reminder. If you're lucky enough to be a player with any Scottish team, then you're more than welcome to read this blog. Just don't actually place any bets based on what you read on here, eh?
Monday, 12 August 2013
Graeme's Silly Bet is Back!
It's England v Scotland at Wembley on Wednesday- with that in mind, yours truly decided to resurrect an old feature on here for a match that we shall be attending. If you're in 1st Class on the 10am Edinburgh to London train tomorrow, say hello.
Shifty, in a state of post Ross County match drunkenness fame asked me to rekindle an old weekly post I did for him called "Graeme's Silly Bet" due to our impending visit to London for the upcoming Scotland vs England friendly to celebrate the 150th anniversary of the FA.
With the current run of my weekend football coupons it could be argued that all of my bets could be regarded as not just silly but financially damaging. I haven't won anything substantial in months. In fact I have never really won anything substantial.
So, for the match on Wednesday, and bear in mind that I haven't even researched the squads despite the SFA emailing me it all the time. My hot silly tip is going to be Scotland to win 1-0 with Kenny Miller scoring the winner after coming off the bench on the 81st minute for a farewell run out.
The bet: 1-0 Scotland, Kenny Miller 1st Scorer at 125/1 with Paddy Power
We'll be coming..
Thursday, 1 August 2013
SPFL Fantasy Football Preview (Hopefully all in 1 part)
It's that time of year again, where we all sign up for various fantasy football leagues. We run our own one for the SPFL (I think that's what it's called now), so here's a preview of what to expect from the (newly expanded, in the spirit of league reconstruction) league this season.
This writer spoke to a number of the competitors in this season's league- here's a tastefully edited version of their thoughts:
Duguid:
Scotty Duguid has been an astute competitor in SPL fantasy football for a few years now. Here's what he had to say about this season's contest:
"I think the expansion of the league will make this year harder than Rory in the Ross County changing rooms. Hoping some of the unknown skills of the newbies will knock Brucey off his perch (and cause another shoulder injury)". An Aberdeen fan, he optimistically hopes for a top 4 finish for Derek Mcinnes' side, but has already warned off other teams eyeing up the Dons' more traditional 9th place.
Rory:
Another experienced fantasy football competitor who will be hoping for an improvement on last season's mid-table finish. Here are his erudite thoughts for the season ahead:
"I think Scott Duguid will win the league this year. With his erectile dysfunction (are we allowed to say erectile dysfunction?- Ed) problems it's been a while since he found anything hard. With big changes amongst several teams it will be hard to pick players. Hooper going makes it difficult to pick a Celtic top scorer. Motherwell and County have had massive overhauls- picking players from these teams will be difficult. Additionally, picking any player from Hearts' makeshift squad will be tough. However, I suggest you pick them over an Aberdeen player. With a new manager and exciting signings they have expectation thrust upon them once more and are therefore likely to finish near the bottom (please note Duguid cannot be blamed for thrusting this expectation on them as, due to his aforementioned erectile dysfunction issues (we're still running with these, then- Ed) he cannot get a boner and therefore cannot thrust)".
Brucey:
A broken collarbone has hindered Bruce's attempts at selection of his team (and wanking), but the reigning champion is expected to challenge for honours once again. His thoughts ahead of the new campaign:
"I'm hoping for another competitive season. Obviously me and Seaniekins are the big two (that's what she said!- Ed) but many others could challenge if they have the ambition, instead of battling for a bottom 6 place and crying about not getting prize money for it. I'm glad it's a clean, debt free league now that Bryan has paid his dues. All the best for the season, lads".
Pud:
Last season's runner-up, and a previous winner, will be confident of another strong challenge for the title this season. This is what he's got to say for himself:
"I am hoping to have another strong season, although that will be difficult with the number of new teams added to the league in the much needed expansion. I believe myself and Brucey the past winners have the know how to win this league and this might be the deciding factor again. Although with just under 24 hours to go I still can't pick a settled side so I'm not as confident of starting off well. I am glad to see Bryan Shepherd FC has come out of administration, with the help of his new sponsors, Wonga. All the best to all the teams this year and may you guys challenge well but ultimately fail to beat me".
Bryan:
Fucked if I know. Bryan will be doing well to avoid the wooden spoon. Across his arse. Actually, he might like that
Me:
Well, I'd better share my thoughts with y'all, then. I've not had the best of times in this league, but all that will (maybe) change this year. I'm expecting surprises in the SPFL this season, particularly from Partick Thistle. Expect to see high-scoring games involving a number of sides, mostly because some sides (I'm looking at you, Hibs & St Mirren) have defences that look utterly dreadful on paper, while some sides (particularly Dundee United) look irresistible going forward (no David Goodwillie jokes- Ed). All the best to all involved, especially the new lads, who I'm sure will be a welcome addition to the league.
Honourable mentions, too, to G-Ham, Dave, and the new lads such as Burns & Jamie. Let's have a good season, chaps
BELIEVE IN THE SHIELD!
This writer spoke to a number of the competitors in this season's league- here's a tastefully edited version of their thoughts:
Duguid:
"I think the expansion of the league will make this year harder than Rory in the Ross County changing rooms. Hoping some of the unknown skills of the newbies will knock Brucey off his perch (and cause another shoulder injury)". An Aberdeen fan, he optimistically hopes for a top 4 finish for Derek Mcinnes' side, but has already warned off other teams eyeing up the Dons' more traditional 9th place.
Rory:
"I think Scott Duguid will win the league this year. With his erectile dysfunction (are we allowed to say erectile dysfunction?- Ed) problems it's been a while since he found anything hard. With big changes amongst several teams it will be hard to pick players. Hooper going makes it difficult to pick a Celtic top scorer. Motherwell and County have had massive overhauls- picking players from these teams will be difficult. Additionally, picking any player from Hearts' makeshift squad will be tough. However, I suggest you pick them over an Aberdeen player. With a new manager and exciting signings they have expectation thrust upon them once more and are therefore likely to finish near the bottom (please note Duguid cannot be blamed for thrusting this expectation on them as, due to his aforementioned erectile dysfunction issues (we're still running with these, then- Ed) he cannot get a boner and therefore cannot thrust)".
Brucey:
"I'm hoping for another competitive season. Obviously me and Seaniekins are the big two (that's what she said!- Ed) but many others could challenge if they have the ambition, instead of battling for a bottom 6 place and crying about not getting prize money for it. I'm glad it's a clean, debt free league now that Bryan has paid his dues. All the best for the season, lads".
Pud:
"I am hoping to have another strong season, although that will be difficult with the number of new teams added to the league in the much needed expansion. I believe myself and Brucey the past winners have the know how to win this league and this might be the deciding factor again. Although with just under 24 hours to go I still can't pick a settled side so I'm not as confident of starting off well. I am glad to see Bryan Shepherd FC has come out of administration, with the help of his new sponsors, Wonga. All the best to all the teams this year and may you guys challenge well but ultimately fail to beat me".
Bryan:
Me:
Well, I'd better share my thoughts with y'all, then. I've not had the best of times in this league, but all that will (maybe) change this year. I'm expecting surprises in the SPFL this season, particularly from Partick Thistle. Expect to see high-scoring games involving a number of sides, mostly because some sides (I'm looking at you, Hibs & St Mirren) have defences that look utterly dreadful on paper, while some sides (particularly Dundee United) look irresistible going forward (no David Goodwillie jokes- Ed). All the best to all involved, especially the new lads, who I'm sure will be a welcome addition to the league.
Honourable mentions, too, to G-Ham, Dave, and the new lads such as Burns & Jamie. Let's have a good season, chaps
BELIEVE IN THE SHIELD!
Monday, 22 July 2013
Not Quite the Return You Might Have Expected
I'm back, folks!
This evening's entry, as the title suggests, won't quite be the usual football betting predictions you've become used to from me. Instead, I'm going to be writing about an altogether more controversial issue- the attempts by David Cameron to crack down on access to pornography.
Personally, I am strongly opposed to any attempts by any government to censor any part of the internet, no matter how abhorrent it may be. The internet is the ultimate free market, where ideas, thoughts and information sources that are popular thrive, and those which are less desirable & popular eventually die (Hiya Myspace! Hey there Bebo! You still there Napster?). If nobody wants to view pornography, it'll die out. Expect to hear words like "abhorrent" and "vulgar" used by Cameron to describe the sort of material he wants to see banned. That's all well and good, David, and I'm not denying that there's material out there that could be described in such a way, but these are subjective terms- one person's definition of abhorrent and vulgar material is going to be different from another's. I'm listening to some particularly heavy rock music while writing this which some people might consider abhorrent or vulgar, yet I find it perfectly acceptable, and it's perfectly legal. I find it abhorrent and vulgar to have a paid lobbyist for the tobacco industry, Lynton Crosby, advising the government on tobacco policy, yet David Cameron finds this perfectly acceptable.
It's not the job of the government to censor the internet for us- we do that for ourselves. We read the news sites we want to see and about the subjects that interest us. We watch the videos to see and listen to the podcasts we want to hear. The stuff that doesn't interest us, we just ignore, which is what the vast majority of us do regarding the small smattering of illegal material (the stuff that we can all agree is abhorrent and vulgar) that we're told is out there. It's the same in our "offline" lives- yes, there's a liquor shop on the way home, a drug dealer on that street corner, a "sauna" 2 streets away, but we exhibit self-discipline and judgement over whether or not to consume these things. We don't need the government putting filters on in order to achieve that same self-censorship when online.
Questions also need to be asked of the filters themselves. For one, the technology that Cameron speaks of already exists; it just needs to be activated by the end user- it isn't even that hard to do, even for those not so technically literate. There are, however, 2 main problems with these filters. Firstly, they're not perfect- many perfectly legitimate, legal websites are currently blocked out by them. This is mainly a technical issue with the way the filters are set up: in layman's terms, when you build a website, you put things called "Metatags" on the pages, so that filters and search engines can see what is on them, so that when the end user searches for the Meta term, the website is picked up and returned as a possible result. Some writers (and I include myself in this) may lack the time or knowledge when composing their (perfectly legal) sites to put these in, so if the filter does not see any Metatags it recognises as being legitimate, it defaults to blocking the site, something I have personal experience with thanks to a period of previous employment with an ISP. Secondly, in a world where many children are more computer literate than their parents, there's a risk that these filters will be disabled as soon as the parents' back is turned- hardly convenient for a policy that's clearly being designed/cobbled together with the protection of children in mind.
Of course those who peddle anything illegal should be punished. But let's not restrict the freedoms of the internet for the rest of us just to drive out a small minority
This evening's entry, as the title suggests, won't quite be the usual football betting predictions you've become used to from me. Instead, I'm going to be writing about an altogether more controversial issue- the attempts by David Cameron to crack down on access to pornography.
Personally, I am strongly opposed to any attempts by any government to censor any part of the internet, no matter how abhorrent it may be. The internet is the ultimate free market, where ideas, thoughts and information sources that are popular thrive, and those which are less desirable & popular eventually die (Hiya Myspace! Hey there Bebo! You still there Napster?). If nobody wants to view pornography, it'll die out. Expect to hear words like "abhorrent" and "vulgar" used by Cameron to describe the sort of material he wants to see banned. That's all well and good, David, and I'm not denying that there's material out there that could be described in such a way, but these are subjective terms- one person's definition of abhorrent and vulgar material is going to be different from another's. I'm listening to some particularly heavy rock music while writing this which some people might consider abhorrent or vulgar, yet I find it perfectly acceptable, and it's perfectly legal. I find it abhorrent and vulgar to have a paid lobbyist for the tobacco industry, Lynton Crosby, advising the government on tobacco policy, yet David Cameron finds this perfectly acceptable.
It's not the job of the government to censor the internet for us- we do that for ourselves. We read the news sites we want to see and about the subjects that interest us. We watch the videos to see and listen to the podcasts we want to hear. The stuff that doesn't interest us, we just ignore, which is what the vast majority of us do regarding the small smattering of illegal material (the stuff that we can all agree is abhorrent and vulgar) that we're told is out there. It's the same in our "offline" lives- yes, there's a liquor shop on the way home, a drug dealer on that street corner, a "sauna" 2 streets away, but we exhibit self-discipline and judgement over whether or not to consume these things. We don't need the government putting filters on in order to achieve that same self-censorship when online.
Questions also need to be asked of the filters themselves. For one, the technology that Cameron speaks of already exists; it just needs to be activated by the end user- it isn't even that hard to do, even for those not so technically literate. There are, however, 2 main problems with these filters. Firstly, they're not perfect- many perfectly legitimate, legal websites are currently blocked out by them. This is mainly a technical issue with the way the filters are set up: in layman's terms, when you build a website, you put things called "Metatags" on the pages, so that filters and search engines can see what is on them, so that when the end user searches for the Meta term, the website is picked up and returned as a possible result. Some writers (and I include myself in this) may lack the time or knowledge when composing their (perfectly legal) sites to put these in, so if the filter does not see any Metatags it recognises as being legitimate, it defaults to blocking the site, something I have personal experience with thanks to a period of previous employment with an ISP. Secondly, in a world where many children are more computer literate than their parents, there's a risk that these filters will be disabled as soon as the parents' back is turned- hardly convenient for a policy that's clearly being designed/cobbled together with the protection of children in mind.
Of course those who peddle anything illegal should be punished. But let's not restrict the freedoms of the internet for the rest of us just to drive out a small minority
Saturday, 27 April 2013
Weekend Betting 27th-28th April
Yoo-hoo! Me again! With the end of the season approaching, I suppose I'd better furnish y'all with some tips:
SUCK IT!
- Manchester City at home to West Ham does look a home banker, and indeed it really should be. West Ham have now cleared the magical 40 point mark which usually guarantees safety from relegation (and should again be the case this season), plus their 3-4-10 away record this season means there's little reason to fancy them to take anything from this one- indeed, city are potent enough going forward at home (averaging 2.25 goals at home in the league this season) to cover a handicap. Take city -1 goal at 5/6 with Skybet
- Having made a prediction for the 12:45 kickoff- I'd better get a move on with the rest of these tips. Elsewhere in the Premier League, Everton (10-6-1 at home) should polish off an on-the-beach-and-safe Fulham- Hills will give you 8/15 on the Toffees
- It's the last day of the season in League 1 today, a league that I personally have hade plenty of success betting on. It's only fair, then, that I share with y'all my tip for today from that league. Bournemouth and Tranmere have gone in opposite directions in the 2nd half of the season- while Tranmere have fallen from title chasers all the way down to their current 11th (their last 16 games: W3, D1, L12), Bournemouth under Eddie Howe have stormed up the league, winning 13 of their last 18. Another win for Bournemouth (who have won their last 8, while Tranmere have lost their last 5) will see the Cherries take the League 1 title. Get on them at the generally available 4/5
- Delving a little deeper into the leagues, there's a couple of teams to be fancied in the Scottish 3rd Division. Berwick can effectively confirm their play-off place by beating Annan (4/7 with Coral), while Peterhead should continue their recent excellent form, which has helped them up to 2nd place in the league, by beating Clyde at Balmoor (2/5 general)
- More media coverage of the Bundesliga! After the midweek exploits of Bayern & Dortmund, I'm going to be tipping 3rd place Bayer Leverkusen to beat Werder Bremen. Leverkusen are in good form (only the 2 aforementioned Bundesligasuperpowers (in German, that is all 1 word) have beaten them at the BayArena this season), while Bremen are in a horrible mess right now- no win in their last 9, and with 2 key attackers (Marko Arnautovic & Eljero Elia) both suspended by the club having been caught speeding. With their defence is as abysmal as ever (no clean sheets away from home all season), all the signs point to a Leverkusen win (4/9 general), with enough in hand to cover a -1 handicap (Evens with Stan James)
SUCK IT!
Saturday, 10 November 2012
Weekend Betting, 10th-11th November
Hiya!
Really ought to put some good old-fashioned tips up for this weekend's games, hopefully just in time for y'all to get them on your coupons. Here goes:
Swans Are Solid
Southampton are starting to look out of their depth in the Premier League. They vaguely resemble the Blackpool side which briefly graced the top flight a few years ago- bravely committed to attacking play, but horribly naive defensively- 28 goals conceded in 10 games is a brutal stat. Nigel Adkins seems like an endearingly positive chap, but his days as Saints manager already look numbered- the repeated chopping and changing of goalkeeper (Kelvin Davis, Paulo Gazzaniga and Artur Boruc have all featured between the sticks this season) isn't helping. Swansea, meanwhile, are going along at a respectable nick, giving very good accounts of themselves against man city and Chelsea in their last 2 games, and are great value at 2/1 with 32Red to get the 3 points at St Mary's today
Sir Alex Likes His Claret
In the 5:30pm game today, Manchester United travel to Villa Park, which has traditionally been a happy hunting ground for them- United haven't lost a league game there since 1995, as well as having an excellent record in FA Cup semi finals played at the ground. After a slightly suspect start, United have started to click into gear, as they traditionally do around about October-November. Aston Villa's improvement under Paul Lambert has been...well...there hasn't really been one. With just 2 league wins and 8 league goals scored so far, Villa still don't exactly get one on the edge of one's seat. United to win outright are available at a general 1/2 if you fancy keeping your 3pm coupon waiting, otherwise, with Villa's prosaic attack and United's improving defence, which should see Chris Smalling available again, while David De Gea is now firmly established as 1st choice goalkeeper (we'll maybe see you at Galatasaray, Anders), United to win to Nil at 16/11 with Bwin is well worth considering
The Championship
There's a few tasty morsals to be had in the Championship today. I'd recommend being all over Crystal Palace (12 games unbeaten, Ian Holloway now in charge keeping them motoring) at 13/10 with Coral to win at struggling Peterborough. Also worth backing are Huddersfield at 15/8 with Victor Chandler to win at Barnsley, who have lost their last 3
And the Rest
Have a punt on Swindon to win at Walsall at 23/20 with Coral- Swindon's away record (4-2-2) is actually better than their 3-3-2 home record, while the opposite is true for out-of-form (5 defeats and no wins in their last 7 league games) Walsall. Also appealing are Aberdeen to win at St Mirren at a best price of 7/5 with Ladbrokes (yes, really. Ladbrokes do actually have the best price here). Despite the result last weekend, Aberdeen still dominated much of their 2-1 defeat at Ross County, which ended a 10 match league unbeaten run. St Mirren, meanwhile, have lost their last 4 league games, and go into this game without their suspended captain Jim Goodwin
Happy Christmas, Pilgrims!
Really ought to put some good old-fashioned tips up for this weekend's games, hopefully just in time for y'all to get them on your coupons. Here goes:
Swans Are Solid
Southampton are starting to look out of their depth in the Premier League. They vaguely resemble the Blackpool side which briefly graced the top flight a few years ago- bravely committed to attacking play, but horribly naive defensively- 28 goals conceded in 10 games is a brutal stat. Nigel Adkins seems like an endearingly positive chap, but his days as Saints manager already look numbered- the repeated chopping and changing of goalkeeper (Kelvin Davis, Paulo Gazzaniga and Artur Boruc have all featured between the sticks this season) isn't helping. Swansea, meanwhile, are going along at a respectable nick, giving very good accounts of themselves against man city and Chelsea in their last 2 games, and are great value at 2/1 with 32Red to get the 3 points at St Mary's today
Sir Alex Likes His Claret
In the 5:30pm game today, Manchester United travel to Villa Park, which has traditionally been a happy hunting ground for them- United haven't lost a league game there since 1995, as well as having an excellent record in FA Cup semi finals played at the ground. After a slightly suspect start, United have started to click into gear, as they traditionally do around about October-November. Aston Villa's improvement under Paul Lambert has been...well...there hasn't really been one. With just 2 league wins and 8 league goals scored so far, Villa still don't exactly get one on the edge of one's seat. United to win outright are available at a general 1/2 if you fancy keeping your 3pm coupon waiting, otherwise, with Villa's prosaic attack and United's improving defence, which should see Chris Smalling available again, while David De Gea is now firmly established as 1st choice goalkeeper (we'll maybe see you at Galatasaray, Anders), United to win to Nil at 16/11 with Bwin is well worth considering
The Championship
There's a few tasty morsals to be had in the Championship today. I'd recommend being all over Crystal Palace (12 games unbeaten, Ian Holloway now in charge keeping them motoring) at 13/10 with Coral to win at struggling Peterborough. Also worth backing are Huddersfield at 15/8 with Victor Chandler to win at Barnsley, who have lost their last 3
And the Rest
Have a punt on Swindon to win at Walsall at 23/20 with Coral- Swindon's away record (4-2-2) is actually better than their 3-3-2 home record, while the opposite is true for out-of-form (5 defeats and no wins in their last 7 league games) Walsall. Also appealing are Aberdeen to win at St Mirren at a best price of 7/5 with Ladbrokes (yes, really. Ladbrokes do actually have the best price here). Despite the result last weekend, Aberdeen still dominated much of their 2-1 defeat at Ross County, which ended a 10 match league unbeaten run. St Mirren, meanwhile, have lost their last 4 league games, and go into this game without their suspended captain Jim Goodwin
Happy Christmas, Pilgrims!
Monday, 17 September 2012
So Much to Blog About, So Little Time...
Evening, y'all
As the title suggests, I've plenty to write about here, yet Mother Time she is against me, so expect various smatterings of wholesome goodness from me.
How About Some Tips?
Let's start with some good old football betting tips. The UEFA Champions League returns this week, so it represents as good a place to start as any. The standout bet of the 1st round of fixtures has to be Arsenal (flying at the moment) to beat Montpellier (who have stumbled somewhat in Ligue 1 so far) at a general 5/4. Get on it quick, as that price could drop below evens by kick-off. Admittedly, aside from that game, there's not many bets from this week's fixtures that look like value- an accumulator featuring Dortmund, Barcelona, Braga, Paris Saint-Germain, Man Utd and Shakhtar Donetsk has a decent chance but won't make you a millionaire. Also, don't even think about backing misfiring AC Milan at home to Anderlecht. Looking at Champions League outrights, William Hill & Victor Chandler will both give you 10/1 on Manchester United claiming the trophy at Wembley next May, which looks a fantastic price.
Some More Tips
The Europa League kicks off again on Thursday, so let's have a gander at those fixtures and see what we can pick out. As ever with cup ties, it's often wise to wait until the team lines are announced before piling into certain teams- this is especially relevant when betting on English teams, who tend to rotate more in this competition, so for now we'll avoid backing any of the English teams. There look to be a few bankers out there- Napoli, Athletic Bilbao, Levante & Sporting CP should all win, but if you want a speculative punt go for Anzhi to beat Udinese at 9/5 with Stan James.
Charles Green. What's His Game?
This is more of a heads-up to a separate blog entry I'm working on, but I must admit to being confused as to what Charles Green's medium-term strategy at Rangers is. There's been chat recently that he intends to float the company which he launched this summer which now runs the club, however a quick consultation of my FSA handbook tells me that this is not possible- any company applying to be listed in the UK must have 3 years of financial statements that have been independently audited, a condition that Rangers obviously currently do not meet. Intriguingly, some media outlets (including the BBC & the Daily Record) both report that Ally McCoist currently owns 4.5% of the club. If true, then this would bar McCoist from any involvement with another Scottish team, or from any role within the SFA (e.g replacement for Craig Levein if/when he departs) as he would own greater than 3% of a member club.
Glazernomics
Last point from me this evening. Allow me to share with y'all a story I heard from a director at a top European club (I'll not name specifics to enable the source to retain anonymity). Apparently, United were interested in signing a player from them (a player I personally rate very highly indeed), however a deal could not be agreed. The sticking point was over the transfer fee, which United wanted to pay over 3 years (as has been commonplace under the Glazers), but the selling club wanted upfront (which was how United operated pre-Glazers). The selling club's concern was, and I quote "What happens if we allow United to pay over 3 years and then they go bust? We are left with no player and having to go to court to get paid". Witness also the current travails of Rapid Vienna, still chasing payment from the now-defunct Rangers for Nikica Jelavic
Going to Old Trafford? Do yourself a favour and shirk the official magazine & programme and instead furnish yourself with one (or more) of the excellent fanzines on offer outside the ground, United We Stand & Red Issue among them
As the title suggests, I've plenty to write about here, yet Mother Time she is against me, so expect various smatterings of wholesome goodness from me.
How About Some Tips?
Let's start with some good old football betting tips. The UEFA Champions League returns this week, so it represents as good a place to start as any. The standout bet of the 1st round of fixtures has to be Arsenal (flying at the moment) to beat Montpellier (who have stumbled somewhat in Ligue 1 so far) at a general 5/4. Get on it quick, as that price could drop below evens by kick-off. Admittedly, aside from that game, there's not many bets from this week's fixtures that look like value- an accumulator featuring Dortmund, Barcelona, Braga, Paris Saint-Germain, Man Utd and Shakhtar Donetsk has a decent chance but won't make you a millionaire. Also, don't even think about backing misfiring AC Milan at home to Anderlecht. Looking at Champions League outrights, William Hill & Victor Chandler will both give you 10/1 on Manchester United claiming the trophy at Wembley next May, which looks a fantastic price.
Some More Tips
The Europa League kicks off again on Thursday, so let's have a gander at those fixtures and see what we can pick out. As ever with cup ties, it's often wise to wait until the team lines are announced before piling into certain teams- this is especially relevant when betting on English teams, who tend to rotate more in this competition, so for now we'll avoid backing any of the English teams. There look to be a few bankers out there- Napoli, Athletic Bilbao, Levante & Sporting CP should all win, but if you want a speculative punt go for Anzhi to beat Udinese at 9/5 with Stan James.
Charles Green. What's His Game?
This is more of a heads-up to a separate blog entry I'm working on, but I must admit to being confused as to what Charles Green's medium-term strategy at Rangers is. There's been chat recently that he intends to float the company which he launched this summer which now runs the club, however a quick consultation of my FSA handbook tells me that this is not possible- any company applying to be listed in the UK must have 3 years of financial statements that have been independently audited, a condition that Rangers obviously currently do not meet. Intriguingly, some media outlets (including the BBC & the Daily Record) both report that Ally McCoist currently owns 4.5% of the club. If true, then this would bar McCoist from any involvement with another Scottish team, or from any role within the SFA (e.g replacement for Craig Levein if/when he departs) as he would own greater than 3% of a member club.
Glazernomics
Last point from me this evening. Allow me to share with y'all a story I heard from a director at a top European club (I'll not name specifics to enable the source to retain anonymity). Apparently, United were interested in signing a player from them (a player I personally rate very highly indeed), however a deal could not be agreed. The sticking point was over the transfer fee, which United wanted to pay over 3 years (as has been commonplace under the Glazers), but the selling club wanted upfront (which was how United operated pre-Glazers). The selling club's concern was, and I quote "What happens if we allow United to pay over 3 years and then they go bust? We are left with no player and having to go to court to get paid". Witness also the current travails of Rapid Vienna, still chasing payment from the now-defunct Rangers for Nikica Jelavic
Going to Old Trafford? Do yourself a favour and shirk the official magazine & programme and instead furnish yourself with one (or more) of the excellent fanzines on offer outside the ground, United We Stand & Red Issue among them
Monday, 3 September 2012
An Alternative Cabinet Reshuffle
So, David Cameron is set to announce a reshuffling of the ministers in his cabinet. Although, let's face it, now much is going to change, is it? A number of right-wing, Oxbridge-educated, middle-to-upper class, out-of-touch, neo-conservative little Englanders are going to be replaced with a different bunch of right-wing, Oxbridge-educated, middle-to-upper class, out-of-touch, neo-conservative little Englanders. So I propose to you, Dave, that you go with the following, to really rejig your government:
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Count von Count (replacing Gideon Osborne)
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Count von Count (replacing Gideon Osborne)
His well-documented love of counting things makes him the perfect man to replace Osborne- he's unlikely to be faze by such daunting tasks as tallying up the number of government functions that have erroneously outsourced to the private sector and how many school playing fields have been built over. He can surely also be trusted far more than Gideon to count (geddit?) how much tax he has to pay himself (for this reason, the currently unemployed Harry Redknapp must be ruled out of contention), and should also avoid the ignominy of being booed when presenting medals at the Paralympic games to the very people suffering the most under his cuts
Defence Secretary: Frankie Boyle (replacing Philip Hammond)
Two key facts here:
1. Britain has loads of cool shit for blowing people up currently going to waste in Iraq, Afghanistan & in numerous secrets bunkers, a few miles off the M27 near Southampton
2. None of you have ever heard of Philip Hammond
The appointment of Boyle as the man in charge of our weapons would eradicate both these problems (along with most of our enemies, whoever they are)
Culture Secretary: Mario Balotelli (replacing Jeremy Cun..er, Hunt)
The touting of this appointment does feel a bit awkward for this writer (regular readers will know that my affiliations lie with the other 3/4s of Manchester), but an "eccentric" individual such as Balotelli makes perfect sense as Culture Secretary. Just imagine the photo opportunities! Feeding the animals at Chester Zoo, parading a bizarre dress sense, promoting womens' prisons & helping boost fireworks sales that will get the economy going, both through the sales themselves & the resultant extra work for the emergency services
Friday, 3 August 2012
Weekend Betting is back. Yay!
So, we've got the SPL starting this weekend, along with the League Cup 1st Round. Let's get tipping:
- Arbroath to beat Stirling Albion at a best price of 8/15 with Paddy Power. Even at such a short price, this represents great value- Arbroath spanked 7 goals past Elgin (a comparable-strength team to Stirling) last Saturday, and Stirling are without a senior goalkeeper- Sam Filler is suspended & Mark Peat unavailable due to work commitments. Astute punters will pile in at that price, so get on it quick
- Skipping ahead to Sunday, Dundee United look best-placed to challenge for 2nd place in the SPL- they have made some smart acquisitions (among them Michael Gardyne & Mark Millar, arguably the 2 best players in the 1st Division last season) and gave a very good account of themselves against Dinamo Moscow on Thursday night, drawing 2-2. The 8/11 offered by Coral on them beating Hibs should be taken
- Elsewhere, it's possible to put together what should be a fairly safe accumulator in the League Cup- expect Falkirk, Partick Thistle, Hamilton & Raith Rovers to all get the job done in their games
Friday, 20 July 2012
When Your Car Needs a New Engine, Don't Buy Alloy Wheels Instead
This morning's paper talk of Manchester United being interested in signing Robin van Persie was rather surprising to this writer for a number of reasons. An even bigger surprise came this evening when Sir Alex Ferguson confirmed on MUTV that a bid had indeed been made. Here's a few reasons why, to me, this potential deal makes no sense and will not happen:
- Rooney, Welbeck, Hernandez, Berbatov, Macheda. Even assuming the likely departure of 1 of the last 2 of those names, United have a strikeforce as strong as any in Europe. Also factor in the likes of Kagawa, Young, Powell and Giggs who could all operate in the 10 position (plus talented youngsters like Will Keane & Josh King), and you have to come to the conclusion that United simply don't need another centre-forward. If van Persie is to be believed when he says his main motivation is to win trophies, then one could argue that Juventus, another of the teams in the running for his signature, give him at least as good, if not better, a chance of winning the Champions League in the near future
- There are, however, other areas of United's squad that need reinforcing. The central midfield issue needs no explaining (as earlier mentioned, Kagawa is more likely to be used as a 10, rather than as part of a Doppelsechs setup), while there is no senior cover for Patrice Evra at left-back- rookies Robbie Brady (a jinking left-winger by trade) and Tyler Blackett will be deployed there during pre-season, and possibly during the season should Evra be unavailable. A move for Everton's Leighton Baines seems to be on the back-burner for now- it's likely to stay there, and definitely will if the van Persie deal goes through
- As alluded to at the end of the last point, there is the issue of finances. The bid lodged by United announced today was rumoured to be in the region of £15 million, which Arsenal rejected, holding out as they are for £25million-£30 million. The signing of van Persie would also go against United's stringent transfer policy of signing young players with high sell-on value at relatively low wages. At 28 and injury prone, van Persie is the very antithesis of this policy
- More on the financial side now. United recently launched an IPO on the New Your Stock Exchange in an attempt to raise capital and also to relieve the club of some of the indebtedness it has taken on with the ownership of the Glazers, a tacit admission that the sheer size of the debt (well into the hundreds of millions) is now holding the club back. To put it simply, if United could meet Arsenal's asking price at the drop of a hat (the way, say, citeh, Paris Saint-Germain or Chelsea could), then they surely would. In the context of this IPO, we also have to consider a financial industry concept known as "signalling". This is where an institution, wishing to drum up positive investor interest (or downplay negative stories) in itself publicly releases positive information about itself that it would normally have kept confidential that may be exaggerated or not entirely truthful. To sum that point up, FERGIE'S LYING!!!
Friday, 6 July 2012
Ideological Blowback
So we now, at last, have confirmation of what most of us have known for a number of weeks now, after 7 SPL clubs declared their voting intentions: Newco Rangers will not play in the SPL in 2012/13.
But what is emerging this summer in Scottish football is something bigger, something far, far more powerful than the mere deciding of the fate of 1 tax-avoiding, soon-to-be-liquidated "establishment" club. The SPL clubs' No votes were, as has been admitted by the clubs and SPL Chief Executive (whose position is surely now close to untenable) Neil Doncaster, driven by the wishes and demands of supporters, who not only voiced their discontent, but also backed them up through refusing to purchase season tickets. It should also be noted that Scotland national team supporters' club memberships are selling much more slowly than normal this summer.
Classic consumer activism, or fan power if you like. But now we're at the stage where it's up to the SFL (Scottish Football League) member clubs to decide if Newco start 2012/13 in the SFL Division 1, Division 3 or if they are to be denied entry altogether, and it goes further than simple fan power. The vast majority (and we are talking vast- opinion polls have Division 3 as the favoured option of 95-98% of voters, including Rangers fans) of fans want Newco to be treated like any other new applicant to the SFL, and made to start from the bottom. However, Doncaster and his partner-in-crime Stewart Regan of the SFA (Scottish Football Association. Don't worry if you're new to the blog- even the most seasoned Scottish football fans get confused by the different governing bodies) are intent on forcing the will of the SFL member clubs into accepting Newco into Division 1. Unfortunately, their scare tactics look set to work on a few clubs, namely Stenhousemuir, but many clubs (and supporters of all clubs, SPL, SFL and Rangers) are standing firm, despite the bullying tactics (which represent at best a dereliction of duty, at worst borderline criminality) of the SPL and SFA.
This will take a bit of explaining, but there is a fascinating parallel between this current state of affairs in Scottish football and post-invasion Iraq.
Some people may look at that statement and think along the lines of: "Evil tyrant knocked off their perch and destroyed, the previously suppressed commoners rejoice!". However, to go with this viewpoint is to misread the current state of Scottish football and to misunderstand post-invasion Iraq.
The common timeline actually goes more like this: "Power vacuum created by the termination of a controlling influence leads to outside authority figures attempting to impose their preferred ideology, only to meet strong resistance from the masses". In post-invasion Iraq, the outside authority figures are represented by the USA, with their free-market ideology which they tried to impose on the Iraqi people, only for the Iraqi citizens to revolt against it, leaving the US government to gradually withdraw, the private contractors it had brought to Iraq having long since departed with billions of dollars of US taxpayer dollars in subsidies, their free-market experiment having crashed and burned.
The authority figures in Scotland (namely, exclusively even, Regan & Doncaster) in the absence of Rangers wish to force upon the rest of Scottish football a model which, ultimately, aims to have Newco Rangers parachuted back into the previously dominant position of the now-defunct Rangers. However, Regan & Doncaster's sole motivation for this seems to be maintenance of the status quo and the perceived level of income, which the footballing masses can see straight through. The rules & regulations governing the game make it quite clear that the procedure in an insolvency event such as the impending liquidation of Rangers that any new entry must apply to the SFL for admittance to Division 3- the masses simply want to see standard procedure followed. (Although, in a rather embarassing revelation for the SFL, it does not specify in their regulations that a new applicant MUST start in Division 3- the best explanation I can offer for this is that the SFL assumed no-one would have the bare-faced cheek to ask to start in a position more privileged than anyone else)
And hence we have ideological blowback, where the ideas preached by the authorities are thrown back at them with a vengeance. The sweetener that Doncaster threw into all his commercial deals of guaranteeing 4 Rangers v Celtic games per season has come back to haunt him, and haunt him loud, while Regan's frankly bizarre comments about potential "social unrest" should Newco be playing at a level below Division 1 surely now leave his position at least as untenable as Doncaster's, and also do a disservice to the significant proportion of Rangers fans who have conducted themselves with dignity and contrition during this sorry saga.
If we do not learn the lessons of history then we will end up repeating the same mistakes. Regan & Doncaster would do well to have Paul Bremer on speed-dial over the coming weeks
But what is emerging this summer in Scottish football is something bigger, something far, far more powerful than the mere deciding of the fate of 1 tax-avoiding, soon-to-be-liquidated "establishment" club. The SPL clubs' No votes were, as has been admitted by the clubs and SPL Chief Executive (whose position is surely now close to untenable) Neil Doncaster, driven by the wishes and demands of supporters, who not only voiced their discontent, but also backed them up through refusing to purchase season tickets. It should also be noted that Scotland national team supporters' club memberships are selling much more slowly than normal this summer.
Classic consumer activism, or fan power if you like. But now we're at the stage where it's up to the SFL (Scottish Football League) member clubs to decide if Newco start 2012/13 in the SFL Division 1, Division 3 or if they are to be denied entry altogether, and it goes further than simple fan power. The vast majority (and we are talking vast- opinion polls have Division 3 as the favoured option of 95-98% of voters, including Rangers fans) of fans want Newco to be treated like any other new applicant to the SFL, and made to start from the bottom. However, Doncaster and his partner-in-crime Stewart Regan of the SFA (Scottish Football Association. Don't worry if you're new to the blog- even the most seasoned Scottish football fans get confused by the different governing bodies) are intent on forcing the will of the SFL member clubs into accepting Newco into Division 1. Unfortunately, their scare tactics look set to work on a few clubs, namely Stenhousemuir, but many clubs (and supporters of all clubs, SPL, SFL and Rangers) are standing firm, despite the bullying tactics (which represent at best a dereliction of duty, at worst borderline criminality) of the SPL and SFA.
This will take a bit of explaining, but there is a fascinating parallel between this current state of affairs in Scottish football and post-invasion Iraq.
Some people may look at that statement and think along the lines of: "Evil tyrant knocked off their perch and destroyed, the previously suppressed commoners rejoice!". However, to go with this viewpoint is to misread the current state of Scottish football and to misunderstand post-invasion Iraq.
The common timeline actually goes more like this: "Power vacuum created by the termination of a controlling influence leads to outside authority figures attempting to impose their preferred ideology, only to meet strong resistance from the masses". In post-invasion Iraq, the outside authority figures are represented by the USA, with their free-market ideology which they tried to impose on the Iraqi people, only for the Iraqi citizens to revolt against it, leaving the US government to gradually withdraw, the private contractors it had brought to Iraq having long since departed with billions of dollars of US taxpayer dollars in subsidies, their free-market experiment having crashed and burned.
The authority figures in Scotland (namely, exclusively even, Regan & Doncaster) in the absence of Rangers wish to force upon the rest of Scottish football a model which, ultimately, aims to have Newco Rangers parachuted back into the previously dominant position of the now-defunct Rangers. However, Regan & Doncaster's sole motivation for this seems to be maintenance of the status quo and the perceived level of income, which the footballing masses can see straight through. The rules & regulations governing the game make it quite clear that the procedure in an insolvency event such as the impending liquidation of Rangers that any new entry must apply to the SFL for admittance to Division 3- the masses simply want to see standard procedure followed. (Although, in a rather embarassing revelation for the SFL, it does not specify in their regulations that a new applicant MUST start in Division 3- the best explanation I can offer for this is that the SFL assumed no-one would have the bare-faced cheek to ask to start in a position more privileged than anyone else)
And hence we have ideological blowback, where the ideas preached by the authorities are thrown back at them with a vengeance. The sweetener that Doncaster threw into all his commercial deals of guaranteeing 4 Rangers v Celtic games per season has come back to haunt him, and haunt him loud, while Regan's frankly bizarre comments about potential "social unrest" should Newco be playing at a level below Division 1 surely now leave his position at least as untenable as Doncaster's, and also do a disservice to the significant proportion of Rangers fans who have conducted themselves with dignity and contrition during this sorry saga.
If we do not learn the lessons of history then we will end up repeating the same mistakes. Regan & Doncaster would do well to have Paul Bremer on speed-dial over the coming weeks
Monday, 18 June 2012
So This Whole Newco Nonsense....
With a vote on July 4th to decide the identity of the SPL's "Club 12", let's have a look at the season-ticket situation. Many clubs are reporting (well, not reporting, but information is being leaked/extracted) that their season ticket sales are not merely falling but completely collapsing, due to the uncertainty regarding Club 12- some clubs are believed to have not yet shifted 200 season tickets when they would have expected to sell 10 times that number by this point in the summer. It's been well-documented why this is- supporters of all other SPL teams (and even a number of Rangers fans) do not want to see Newco Rangers allowed straight back in to the SPL, and many fans do not want to spend time and money backing a club that is complicit in their readmission to the league.
This got me thinking- how many season-ticket holders would a club need to lose to offset the additional ticket revenue brought in by the Rangers travelling support?
The answer is not many. I've collated the following pieces for each of the 10 SPL clubs who were there last season and will be there this season (newly-promoted Ross County didn't play Rangers last season and relegated Dunfermline won't play them this season. Their season ticket figures of approx 1250 so far are actually more positive than much of the SPL, helped by their clear No to Newco stance):
Aberdeen- 430 season ticket holders
Celtic- 541
Dundee United- 384
Hearts- 296
Hibs- 294
Inverness CT- 149
Kilmarnock- 606
Motherwell- 417
St Johnstone- 366
St Mirren- 242
From these figures, the stance of many clubs suddenly becomes clear. It's now far easier to see why Kilmarnock chairman Michael Johnston is vocal in his support for allowing Newco Rangers back into the SPL-with their diminishing crowds and comparatively large stadium capacity, Johnston feels Kilmarnock need to sell 2 full stands to Rangers fans twice a season in order to survive, and that he'd struggle to sell over 600 additional season-tickets to compensate for their departure. For the remainder of clubs, though, it's clear that only a small number of their season-ticket holders need not renew for them to lose out. It should also be factored in that for 2012/13, if Club 12 are not Newco Rangers, then they will almost certainly be Dundee, who would take a comparable travelling support to Dundee United, St Johnstone and perhaps Aberdeen to that of Rangers. For those reasons alone, that should be 3 No to Newco votes wrapped up- with Hibs chairman Rod Petrie previously vocal about sporting integrity being the priority, we can assume that Hibs will also vote No- they also need to retain all the season ticket holders they can (especially after a poor season on the pitch), as they need only lose fewer than 300 to offset the Newco travelling fans. Even allowing for the likely Yes vote from Kilmarnock for the reasons already mentioned, that's already 4 likely No votes, and would Celtic really turn down an opportunity to relegate their oldest rivals from the top flight?
Another factor to be considered is that, with each passing day, it becomes more and more difficult for Newco Rangers to put together everything they'll need to be competitive next season should they be in the SPL- no players have signed as of yet (Newco Rangers are obliged to OFFER Oldco Rangers' players and staff a new contract, but they players and staff are not obliged to accept) and season-ticket holders must be wondering whether they should commit to paying SPL prices for their tickets which could yet be for 3rd Division football, or even for no football at all. And one can only wonder at how Ally McCoist (if he is to continue as manager) has been preparing- does he devise a pre-season programme based on the technique required for the SPL (not much admittedly) or for the more physical, bruising nature of the 3rd division? Can he build a strong squad of quality players for an assault on the SPL, or does he have to try and find 18-20 part-time players for the bottom tier? The longer he has to wait, the more likely someone else is going to come in for all those players. Do the other SPL clubs really want a team who may not be able to compete with them whilst in financial turmoil, a la Gretna?
Lastly, I'd recommend that, if you're a fan of an SPL team, you let them know your feelings. Teams need to listen to their fans more than ever in these challenging times for Scottish football
Edited on 19.6.2012 for updated figures, thanks @MitchellenMan
This got me thinking- how many season-ticket holders would a club need to lose to offset the additional ticket revenue brought in by the Rangers travelling support?
The answer is not many. I've collated the following pieces for each of the 10 SPL clubs who were there last season and will be there this season (newly-promoted Ross County didn't play Rangers last season and relegated Dunfermline won't play them this season. Their season ticket figures of approx 1250 so far are actually more positive than much of the SPL, helped by their clear No to Newco stance):
- The cost of a 2012/13 Adult season ticket (where more than 1 price bracket exists, I've taken the median value)
- The cost of a 2011/12 Adult ticket for a match v Rangers (2012/13 individual match ticket prices are not available for most clubs at this time, and they're unlikely to fluctuate much anyway. Again, where more than 1 price bracket exists, I've taken the median value)
- The approximate number of tickets allocated to Rangers for these games in 2011/12
Aberdeen- 430 season ticket holders
Celtic- 541
Dundee United- 384
Hearts- 296
Hibs- 294
Inverness CT- 149
Kilmarnock- 606
Motherwell- 417
St Johnstone- 366
St Mirren- 242
From these figures, the stance of many clubs suddenly becomes clear. It's now far easier to see why Kilmarnock chairman Michael Johnston is vocal in his support for allowing Newco Rangers back into the SPL-with their diminishing crowds and comparatively large stadium capacity, Johnston feels Kilmarnock need to sell 2 full stands to Rangers fans twice a season in order to survive, and that he'd struggle to sell over 600 additional season-tickets to compensate for their departure. For the remainder of clubs, though, it's clear that only a small number of their season-ticket holders need not renew for them to lose out. It should also be factored in that for 2012/13, if Club 12 are not Newco Rangers, then they will almost certainly be Dundee, who would take a comparable travelling support to Dundee United, St Johnstone and perhaps Aberdeen to that of Rangers. For those reasons alone, that should be 3 No to Newco votes wrapped up- with Hibs chairman Rod Petrie previously vocal about sporting integrity being the priority, we can assume that Hibs will also vote No- they also need to retain all the season ticket holders they can (especially after a poor season on the pitch), as they need only lose fewer than 300 to offset the Newco travelling fans. Even allowing for the likely Yes vote from Kilmarnock for the reasons already mentioned, that's already 4 likely No votes, and would Celtic really turn down an opportunity to relegate their oldest rivals from the top flight?
Another factor to be considered is that, with each passing day, it becomes more and more difficult for Newco Rangers to put together everything they'll need to be competitive next season should they be in the SPL- no players have signed as of yet (Newco Rangers are obliged to OFFER Oldco Rangers' players and staff a new contract, but they players and staff are not obliged to accept) and season-ticket holders must be wondering whether they should commit to paying SPL prices for their tickets which could yet be for 3rd Division football, or even for no football at all. And one can only wonder at how Ally McCoist (if he is to continue as manager) has been preparing- does he devise a pre-season programme based on the technique required for the SPL (not much admittedly) or for the more physical, bruising nature of the 3rd division? Can he build a strong squad of quality players for an assault on the SPL, or does he have to try and find 18-20 part-time players for the bottom tier? The longer he has to wait, the more likely someone else is going to come in for all those players. Do the other SPL clubs really want a team who may not be able to compete with them whilst in financial turmoil, a la Gretna?
Lastly, I'd recommend that, if you're a fan of an SPL team, you let them know your feelings. Teams need to listen to their fans more than ever in these challenging times for Scottish football
Edited on 19.6.2012 for updated figures, thanks @MitchellenMan
Saturday, 9 June 2012
And Yet More Words On Euro 2012
One day in, let's now have a look at Group C of Euro 2012. After the barnstorming start I made (had Russia to win 4-1 at 50/1 and Dzagoev to score 2 or more goals at 35/1), I'll also furnish y'all with some tips for the next few games:
Group C: (Campeones, Corrupt Calcio, Cafe Table Cloths, Caffreys)
Reigning European and World champions Spain, despite being without the injured Puyol and Villa, are among the favourites. There's been much talk of fatigue amongst their players, particularly the Barcelona contingent, but this shouldn't be as much of a problem for them as it would be for other sides. Their possession-based game will see them typically with about 70% of possession each game, so opportunities will be there for the likes of Xavi, Alonso and Iniesta to take a "breather" during the games by simply retaining the ball amongst themselves, knowing that many opponents, Ireland in particular, will likely afford them much time and space in the middle of the park and play with 9 or 10 players within 30 metres of their own goal. By the time they reach the latter stages, though, fatigue may catch up with them, especially if confronted by a rapid-pressing, energetic, powerful Germany side. Behind them, Italy look rather shambolic. Another match-fixing scandal is rife in their domestic game, costing them the services of left-back Domenico Criscito, and their main attacking options are Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano- can either of them really be relied upon at this level? Croatia, still playing in those red and white cafe table cloths, must fancy their chances of finishing ahead of Italy- they are tactically versatile, with coach Slaven Bilic having an impressive array of attacking options available, even without the inured workhorse Ivica Olic- Luka Modric will pull the strings in the centre of midfield, with Darijo Srna motoring up and down the right flank. The left-midfield and central-attacking midfield positions will be filled by 2 from Niko Kranjcar, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic, with the impressive Nikica Jelavic either on his own upfront, or possibly partnered by Mario Mandzukic or Eduardo should Bilic opt for a front 2 ahead of a flatter midfield. Don't expect much from Ireland either aesthetically or in terms of results- the current squad is very much Caffreys (poor imitation) compared to the Guinness (real deal) of their 1994 and 2002 vintages. Giovanni Trappatoni's side have an extremely basic tactical framework- 4-4-2 with centre-backs at full-back, 2 holders in the centre of midfield, 2 wingers and a target man-little man strike partnership. While they could frustrate all 3 group opponents, they are unlikely to be able to create enough to threaten qualification
Now for some tips. Some good, some more adventurous:
Holland to beat Denmark at 8/11 general
Holland v Denmark under 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Betfred
Germany and Portugal to draw at 23/10 general
Half time/ full time Portugal/Draw at 16/1 with Skybet
Cristiano Ronaldo 1st scorer at 11/2 general
Germany and Portugal to draw 3-3 at 80/1 with Bodog
Spain v Italy under 2.5 goals at 8/13 with Skybet
Ireland v Croatia under 2.5 goals at 1/2 general
Group C: (Campeones, Corrupt Calcio, Cafe Table Cloths, Caffreys)
Reigning European and World champions Spain, despite being without the injured Puyol and Villa, are among the favourites. There's been much talk of fatigue amongst their players, particularly the Barcelona contingent, but this shouldn't be as much of a problem for them as it would be for other sides. Their possession-based game will see them typically with about 70% of possession each game, so opportunities will be there for the likes of Xavi, Alonso and Iniesta to take a "breather" during the games by simply retaining the ball amongst themselves, knowing that many opponents, Ireland in particular, will likely afford them much time and space in the middle of the park and play with 9 or 10 players within 30 metres of their own goal. By the time they reach the latter stages, though, fatigue may catch up with them, especially if confronted by a rapid-pressing, energetic, powerful Germany side. Behind them, Italy look rather shambolic. Another match-fixing scandal is rife in their domestic game, costing them the services of left-back Domenico Criscito, and their main attacking options are Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano- can either of them really be relied upon at this level? Croatia, still playing in those red and white cafe table cloths, must fancy their chances of finishing ahead of Italy- they are tactically versatile, with coach Slaven Bilic having an impressive array of attacking options available, even without the inured workhorse Ivica Olic- Luka Modric will pull the strings in the centre of midfield, with Darijo Srna motoring up and down the right flank. The left-midfield and central-attacking midfield positions will be filled by 2 from Niko Kranjcar, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic, with the impressive Nikica Jelavic either on his own upfront, or possibly partnered by Mario Mandzukic or Eduardo should Bilic opt for a front 2 ahead of a flatter midfield. Don't expect much from Ireland either aesthetically or in terms of results- the current squad is very much Caffreys (poor imitation) compared to the Guinness (real deal) of their 1994 and 2002 vintages. Giovanni Trappatoni's side have an extremely basic tactical framework- 4-4-2 with centre-backs at full-back, 2 holders in the centre of midfield, 2 wingers and a target man-little man strike partnership. While they could frustrate all 3 group opponents, they are unlikely to be able to create enough to threaten qualification
Now for some tips. Some good, some more adventurous:
Holland to beat Denmark at 8/11 general
Holland v Denmark under 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Betfred
Germany and Portugal to draw at 23/10 general
Half time/ full time Portugal/Draw at 16/1 with Skybet
Cristiano Ronaldo 1st scorer at 11/2 general
Germany and Portugal to draw 3-3 at 80/1 with Bodog
Spain v Italy under 2.5 goals at 8/13 with Skybet
Ireland v Croatia under 2.5 goals at 1/2 general
Wednesday, 6 June 2012
Some More Words on Euro 2012
2 days to go until the start of Euro 2012. Office sweepstake done? Check. Polish colleagues getting hyper-excited? Check. Smart gamblers with outright bets placed months ago? Check (for the record, yours truly has the following: Germany outright winners @ 10/3, Klose top scorer @ 14/1, Russia each/way @18/1, Lewandowski top scorer @ 50/1. Some of those prices, Lewy for the Golden Boot in particular, are long gone). Less organised punters still floundering around for semi-decent prices? Check. Fantasy football leagues setup? Check
Instead of doing a straight rundown of Groups C and D, I thought I'd offer some more general musings on what to expect at Euro 2012, as well as a few tips for the floundering punters.
In the last few days, many people have been getting excited about France- they're now as short as 9/1 to win the tournament with many bookmakers, while centre-forward Karim Benzema is now as short as 12/1 for top scorer- both outcomes were available at much longer prices only a few weeks ago. Most of this interest has come about due to their impressive warm-up results, however one must note that the quality of opponents they have faced recently has been lacking- Iceland took a 2 goal lead against them before going down 3-2, Serbia are in transition under new boss Sinisa Mihajlovic and Estonia offered very little against Les Bleus after the first 10 minutes. They should comfortably qualify from Group D, and should come through a likely quarter-final against Croatia or an utter shambles of an Italy side, but their central defensive frailties, where 1st choice pairing Philippe Mexes and Adil Rami have both endured difficult seasons at club level, are likely to be exposed by the time they reach the semi-finals. There are also question marks over who will be protecting the back 4, with injury concerns over DMs Yann M'Vila, Blaise Matuidi and Alou Diarra. World Cup 2014 could be their time, though.
As for Benzema, he's a more realistic shout of claiming outright glory. Again, it's his form in the aforementioned warm-up games that has got everyone interested, as well as the defensive travails of all of their Group D opponents- he's also got plenty of creativity behind him, as well as a potential target man to play off if Laurent Blanc decides to throw Olivier Giroud on alongside him. That 12/1 is just about worth a few quid- kudos to you if you got him when he was still in the 20s
I'll do the other 2 groups within the next few days, i.e. before any actual matches are played
Instead of doing a straight rundown of Groups C and D, I thought I'd offer some more general musings on what to expect at Euro 2012, as well as a few tips for the floundering punters.
In the last few days, many people have been getting excited about France- they're now as short as 9/1 to win the tournament with many bookmakers, while centre-forward Karim Benzema is now as short as 12/1 for top scorer- both outcomes were available at much longer prices only a few weeks ago. Most of this interest has come about due to their impressive warm-up results, however one must note that the quality of opponents they have faced recently has been lacking- Iceland took a 2 goal lead against them before going down 3-2, Serbia are in transition under new boss Sinisa Mihajlovic and Estonia offered very little against Les Bleus after the first 10 minutes. They should comfortably qualify from Group D, and should come through a likely quarter-final against Croatia or an utter shambles of an Italy side, but their central defensive frailties, where 1st choice pairing Philippe Mexes and Adil Rami have both endured difficult seasons at club level, are likely to be exposed by the time they reach the semi-finals. There are also question marks over who will be protecting the back 4, with injury concerns over DMs Yann M'Vila, Blaise Matuidi and Alou Diarra. World Cup 2014 could be their time, though.
As for Benzema, he's a more realistic shout of claiming outright glory. Again, it's his form in the aforementioned warm-up games that has got everyone interested, as well as the defensive travails of all of their Group D opponents- he's also got plenty of creativity behind him, as well as a potential target man to play off if Laurent Blanc decides to throw Olivier Giroud on alongside him. That 12/1 is just about worth a few quid- kudos to you if you got him when he was still in the 20s
I'll do the other 2 groups within the next few days, i.e. before any actual matches are played
Sunday, 3 June 2012
Some Words About Euro 2012
Euro 2012 begins on Friday (Poland v Greece, kick off 5pm, so you shouldn't have to sneak away from work too early), so I suppose I'd better share some musings about the upcoming soccerfest
Group A (Arshavin, Austerity, Ambition, Ach Who Cares?)
Arguably the weakest of the groups contains 4 fairly evenly-matched teams, all of whom will harbour realistic expectations of progression to the knockout stages. Russia are the strongest of the 4, and should top the group. They have a genuinely top class keeper in the fit-again Igor Akinfeev to compensate for a less-than world class defence, while a tough, workmanlike midfield will provide an attacking platform for 1 exciting young playmaker (Alan Dzagoev) and 1 older, less exciting playmaker (Andrei Arshavin) to create openings for the lone frontman, who will be 1 from Alexandr Kerzhakov, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Pavel Pogrebnyak. Co-hosts Poland should join them in the knockout stages- centre-forward Robert Lewandowski has established himself as one of Europe's best srikers and is well-fancied by many to be the tournament's top scorer, his price having moved from 40/1 to 20/1 in the last few weeks. Lewandowski's Borussia Dortmund club mates, Jakub Blaszczykowski and Lukasz Piczczek will line up down the right flank of a fairly standard 4-2-3-1 formation in which the 2 DMs, likely to be Dariusz Dudka and Rafal Murawski, will hold and do little else. Arsenal's Wojciech Szczesny will be in goals. Regarding the other 2 teams in the group, the Czech Republic's golden generation have now moved on, while their impressive Under 21 crop from last summer are not yet ready to step up, while Greece offer very little aside from dogged tenacity in defence and the hope of a set-piece at the other end- it's unlikely to be enough to see them past a slick, determined Russia and a decent Polish side on home soil
Group B (Bundesliga, Bacon, Bento, Boiler Suits)
Ah, the old "group of death". Germany go into the tournament as 2nd favourites behind Spain, with all the old Teutonic efficiency of old, but these days with a sparkling, powerful attacking game with young uberstars like Mario Gotze, Mesut Ozil, Toni Kroos and the World Cup Golden Boot winner Thomas Muller. 2 of these 4 will likely make up the 3 man attacking midfield (Lukas Podolski, a Nationalmannschaft veteran at the age of 27, should take the left-sided forward role) support to the lone frontman, the ageless Miroslav Klose. Concerns remain about the defence (not only is the awful Benedikt Howedes in the squad, he may actually play) but they were imperious in qualifying (10 wins from 10) and are capable of making it through this group with relative ease. Very strong chance of going all the way. Behind them, all 3 teams could conceivably go through. The bacon-munching Danes go into the tournament in good form- the loss of goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen was a blow but not an insurmountable one- Man Utd's Anders Lindegaard is an able deputy, while their key attacking threats are all fit and raring to go. Coach Morten Olsen is a wily old fox who will know how to extract the maximum from his side. Holland's fans will flock to the tournament to a man dressed in bright orange boiler suits with a potent attack but question marks over the playing style and the defence- Arjen Robben's propensity to screw up in crucial games is also not to be discounted. Portugal, under Paulo Bento, are basically Cristiano Ronaldo + a useless rabble of 10 others, which admittedly means they've still got a chance
Groups C and D will follow soooooon
Group A (Arshavin, Austerity, Ambition, Ach Who Cares?)
Arguably the weakest of the groups contains 4 fairly evenly-matched teams, all of whom will harbour realistic expectations of progression to the knockout stages. Russia are the strongest of the 4, and should top the group. They have a genuinely top class keeper in the fit-again Igor Akinfeev to compensate for a less-than world class defence, while a tough, workmanlike midfield will provide an attacking platform for 1 exciting young playmaker (Alan Dzagoev) and 1 older, less exciting playmaker (Andrei Arshavin) to create openings for the lone frontman, who will be 1 from Alexandr Kerzhakov, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Pavel Pogrebnyak. Co-hosts Poland should join them in the knockout stages- centre-forward Robert Lewandowski has established himself as one of Europe's best srikers and is well-fancied by many to be the tournament's top scorer, his price having moved from 40/1 to 20/1 in the last few weeks. Lewandowski's Borussia Dortmund club mates, Jakub Blaszczykowski and Lukasz Piczczek will line up down the right flank of a fairly standard 4-2-3-1 formation in which the 2 DMs, likely to be Dariusz Dudka and Rafal Murawski, will hold and do little else. Arsenal's Wojciech Szczesny will be in goals. Regarding the other 2 teams in the group, the Czech Republic's golden generation have now moved on, while their impressive Under 21 crop from last summer are not yet ready to step up, while Greece offer very little aside from dogged tenacity in defence and the hope of a set-piece at the other end- it's unlikely to be enough to see them past a slick, determined Russia and a decent Polish side on home soil
Group B (Bundesliga, Bacon, Bento, Boiler Suits)
Ah, the old "group of death". Germany go into the tournament as 2nd favourites behind Spain, with all the old Teutonic efficiency of old, but these days with a sparkling, powerful attacking game with young uberstars like Mario Gotze, Mesut Ozil, Toni Kroos and the World Cup Golden Boot winner Thomas Muller. 2 of these 4 will likely make up the 3 man attacking midfield (Lukas Podolski, a Nationalmannschaft veteran at the age of 27, should take the left-sided forward role) support to the lone frontman, the ageless Miroslav Klose. Concerns remain about the defence (not only is the awful Benedikt Howedes in the squad, he may actually play) but they were imperious in qualifying (10 wins from 10) and are capable of making it through this group with relative ease. Very strong chance of going all the way. Behind them, all 3 teams could conceivably go through. The bacon-munching Danes go into the tournament in good form- the loss of goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen was a blow but not an insurmountable one- Man Utd's Anders Lindegaard is an able deputy, while their key attacking threats are all fit and raring to go. Coach Morten Olsen is a wily old fox who will know how to extract the maximum from his side. Holland's fans will flock to the tournament to a man dressed in bright orange boiler suits with a potent attack but question marks over the playing style and the defence- Arjen Robben's propensity to screw up in crucial games is also not to be discounted. Portugal, under Paulo Bento, are basically Cristiano Ronaldo + a useless rabble of 10 others, which admittedly means they've still got a chance
Groups C and D will follow soooooon
Monday, 7 May 2012
Houston, we have a problem
So, Dundee United manager Peter Houston has come out this week and said that, without Rangers in the SPL, his club stand to lose in the region of £600,000. Let's rip that statement to shreds
Firstly, an SPL next season without Rangers would see United's city rivals, Dundee, admitted to the SPL in their place as 1st Division runners-up (although their final points tally was closer to bottom-placed Queen of the South than winners Ross County. Sorry folks, I couldn't resist). Games against Dundee at Tannadice would be guaranteed sell-outs (notably, neither of Rangers' 2 trips to Tannadice this season sold out) and would most likely be deemed "premium" fixtures, i.e. highest bracket of ticket and hospitality prices (another bugbear of this writer, but we'll leave that for another day). So loss of ticket revenue isn't going to be an issue. The issue of a loss of TV revenue is probably weighing on Houston's mind, given that 3 of Dundee United's 4 league games v Rangers were televised by Sky or ESPN, however it's a reasonable assumption to make that a Dundee derby will be an attractive proposition for live TV, and much as there has been some hand-wringing over Sky's future coverage of the SPL, ESPN, who show just as many matches, have a deal until 2017. And, let's face it, if Rangers start next season in Division 3, then by the time that deal is up for renewal, there's a good chance the Govan side will be back in the SPL.
Clubs like Dundee United would also benefit on the park. Houston would probably admit that, in ordinary circumstances, Rangers would almost certainly be plotting moves this summer for the likes of Johnny Russell and Gary Mackay Steven, and would be able to blow his side out of the water in financial terms, plus European football. This will now no longer be the case, thereby giving Houston more opportunity to build a stronger team around these talented players. This should, in theory, mean that by the time Rangers rise through the SFL and are back in the SPL (as will most likely happen), the rest of the league should be much stronger, which will benefit the whole of Scottish football.
So the short-term and long-term cases are there to see. What also has to be taken into account is the view of the supporters. The results of the recent SPL fan survey show that supporters are by and large unsympathetic to the idea of a Newco Rangers playing in the SPL, and rightly so. The results also indicate that there would be a significant drop in the already-diminishing crowds at SPL games. The chairmen, who will ultimately make the final decision, cannot ignore this. They may, and usually do, point at the TV deals as being a source of finance, but it's worth remembering exactly who Sky, ESPN and the BBC (who, should Sky pull out, would surely fancy boosting their diminishing live sports rights portfolio) televise football for: the supporters.
We can but hope for some sense and sensibility from the SPL chairmen when they (eventually) make their decision. We can but hope
Firstly, an SPL next season without Rangers would see United's city rivals, Dundee, admitted to the SPL in their place as 1st Division runners-up (although their final points tally was closer to bottom-placed Queen of the South than winners Ross County. Sorry folks, I couldn't resist). Games against Dundee at Tannadice would be guaranteed sell-outs (notably, neither of Rangers' 2 trips to Tannadice this season sold out) and would most likely be deemed "premium" fixtures, i.e. highest bracket of ticket and hospitality prices (another bugbear of this writer, but we'll leave that for another day). So loss of ticket revenue isn't going to be an issue. The issue of a loss of TV revenue is probably weighing on Houston's mind, given that 3 of Dundee United's 4 league games v Rangers were televised by Sky or ESPN, however it's a reasonable assumption to make that a Dundee derby will be an attractive proposition for live TV, and much as there has been some hand-wringing over Sky's future coverage of the SPL, ESPN, who show just as many matches, have a deal until 2017. And, let's face it, if Rangers start next season in Division 3, then by the time that deal is up for renewal, there's a good chance the Govan side will be back in the SPL.
Clubs like Dundee United would also benefit on the park. Houston would probably admit that, in ordinary circumstances, Rangers would almost certainly be plotting moves this summer for the likes of Johnny Russell and Gary Mackay Steven, and would be able to blow his side out of the water in financial terms, plus European football. This will now no longer be the case, thereby giving Houston more opportunity to build a stronger team around these talented players. This should, in theory, mean that by the time Rangers rise through the SFL and are back in the SPL (as will most likely happen), the rest of the league should be much stronger, which will benefit the whole of Scottish football.
So the short-term and long-term cases are there to see. What also has to be taken into account is the view of the supporters. The results of the recent SPL fan survey show that supporters are by and large unsympathetic to the idea of a Newco Rangers playing in the SPL, and rightly so. The results also indicate that there would be a significant drop in the already-diminishing crowds at SPL games. The chairmen, who will ultimately make the final decision, cannot ignore this. They may, and usually do, point at the TV deals as being a source of finance, but it's worth remembering exactly who Sky, ESPN and the BBC (who, should Sky pull out, would surely fancy boosting their diminishing live sports rights portfolio) televise football for: the supporters.
We can but hope for some sense and sensibility from the SPL chairmen when they (eventually) make their decision. We can but hope
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