My Thoughts
Back in 2008, Arsenal arrived at St Andrews pursuing the league title, and they do the same here. However, back then this game saw Arsenal's title challenge (along with Eduardo's leg) buckle, as 10-man Birmingham managed a 2-2 draw. Arsenal, epitomised by the sulking William Gallas that day, never recovered that season, showing a real lack of mental strength. However, this is a different Arsenal side- recently away at Stoke, they were given a similar examination- with 20 minutes left, and Stoke gamely competing and holding Arsene Wenger's side at 1-1, Aaron Ramsey suffered an equally horrific leg break. Yet this did not defeat Arsenal- instead they rallied, and thanks to late goals from Cesc Fabregas and Thomas Vermaelen (the signing of the season in this writer's opinion), they won the game 3-1.
The Verdict
Birmingham's long winter unbeaten run is now over, with Alex Mcleish's outfit having lost 4 of their last 7 league games. However, they have still lost just twice in the league at home this season, and as such their target for this season has changed from the pre-season hope of avoiding a relegation scrap, to knocking on the door of the UEFA Cup (I'm still calling it that) places. However, Arsenal this season have much, much greater mental strength than witnessed in previous seasons- Nicklas Bendtner's late winner away at Hull is testament to that- and with Fabregas and probably Bendtner available again, Arsenal should edge this, even if they do have to play Mickael Silvestre in central defence in place of the suspended Thomas Vermaelen. On the subject of Arsenal central defenders, I bet Sol Campbell hasn't yet given up hope of a place in Fabio Capello's World Cup squad.
The Bet
Arsenal to win outright are available at a best price of 4/7 with Betfred. As for a correct score bet, 2-1 Arsenal looks tempting given that Wenger's men have averaged exactly 2 goals per game in the league away from home this season, but have only kept 3 clean sheets in those games. It's available at a very tempting 15/2 with Blue Square. Another tempting bet could be Half Time/ Full-Time Draw/Arsenal. 7 of Birmingham's home league games this season have been level at half-time, while Arsenal are developing a canny knack of scoring late goals- it's available at a best price of 7/2 with Skybet
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