The First of What Will Hopefully Be Many But Probably End Up About Three

Well then. We're rapidly approaching the World Cup (June 12th is the big date), and in the runup I intend to put a few entries on here about all manner of World Cup related patter. For tonight's musing, let's have a look at the main individual trinket on offer in Brazil, the Golden Boot.

What History Tells Us
Almost exclusively throughout its history, the Golden Boot has been won by either a well-known, established, experienced centre-forward (e.g. Miroslav Klose in 2006, Ronaldo in 2002, Gerd Muller in 1974) or a breakout superstar from relative obscurity (e.g Thomas Muller in 2010, Davor Suker in 1998, Salvatore Schillaci in 1990). With the exceptions of Muller in 2010 and Hristo Stoichkov in 1994, the winners could also all legitimately be described as out-and-out centre-forwards operating in traditional Number 9 territory. 5 Brazilians (Garrincha & Vava shared the award in 1962), 3 Germans (Gerd & Thomas Muller, along with Miroslav Klose in 2006), 2 Italians (Schillaci & Paolo Rossi in 1982) and 2 Argentinians have won the Golden Boot, a spread that bears a passing resemblance to the spread of teams who have won the World Cup, although only 4 World Cup winning teams (Brazil in 2002 the most recent) have also had the Golden Boot winner among their ranks. Having said that, only joint-winner Oleg Salenko in 1994 has won the award playing for a team who failed to make it beyond the 1st round of the tournament.

This Year's Contenders
With all that in mid, let's have a look at a few of the main contenders for the Golden Boot this summer:

Lionel Messi (best odds: 9/1 with Coral)
Despite not having the best season domestically, he has to be a serious contender, even with lingering doubts over his fitness after missing 2 months earlier this season. Argentina's group is a very accommodating one, with Switzerland or Ecuador their most likely Round of 16 opponents- opportunities to score shouldn't be in short supply. On the other hand, this could work against Messi & Argentina- no disrespect to Iran (with Carlos Queiroz in charge) & Nigeria (bundles of talent but a complete mess organisationally), but it's not difficult to imagine both adopting a "damage limitiation" mindset and seeking purely to deny Argentina. Given those aforementioned fitness concerns (and bear in mind he's not a pure centre-forward), it's also plausible that Messi could be used sparingly in the early stages of the tournament (particularly if Argentina qualify for Round 2 with a game to spare).  Definitely to be considered if you're willing to back him at as short as 9/1

Cristiano Ronaldo (14/1 general)
Likely to start from the left for Portugal with some sort of centre-forward (possibly Hugo Almeida) in a more conventional Number 9/placeholder role. Don't expect him to have to do much defensive work, either- he'll remain high up the pitch, with Paulo Bento looking to exploit him as the most devastatingly brilliant counter-attacker in the world. He'll have to carry the team a lot, though- this is far from an outstanding Portugal side, and what may ultimately stop him from winning the Golden Boot is that Portugal simply won't go far enough into the tournament. Avoid

Romelu Lukaku (33/1 general)
Now here's a prospect. Having a great season at club level (without an energy-sapping European campaign) with his future wide open leading the line for a much-fancied dark horse, Romelu Lukaku could make a real name for himself in Brazil. Belgium have a winnable group, and will fancy themselves to at least trouble whoever emerges from Group G as their 2nd Round opponent. A supporting cast of Hazard, De Bruyne, Mirallas & Witsel amongst others should create plenty of chances for Lukaku. Definitely one to watch, at decent each-way money too

Miroslav Klose (50/1 Spreadex)
It's what he does. Still playing regularly for Lazio, and likely to have as good a supporting cast as anyone (Muller, Reus, Podolski & Kroos won't all start. Draxler may not even make the squad), Klose simply cannot be discounted, even at 35 (he turns 36 3 days before the tournament starts). Only Ronaldo has more World Cup finals goals, and only Gerd Muller has as many goals for Germany

I'll run through a few more names in the coming weeks