AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur, Tuesday 15th February

My Thoughts

This 1st Knockout Round Champions League tie is one of the most difficult to call, and from a tactical standpoint arguably the most intriguing. AC Milan are having an excellent season, with a 4-0 victory over Parma on Saturday keeping them 3 points clear at the head of Serie A, while a 2-1 victory away at Sunderland on Saturday keeps Tottenham well in contention for another top 4 finish. The intriguing aspect of this game is the contrast between the 2 sides' approaches to the game. AC Milan, under summer appointment Massimiliano Allegri, tend to favour a 4-3-1-2 formation. This leaves their midfield quite narrow, with the main creative responsibilities falling to the player in the trequartista role behind the front 2, a role that could be occupied by Clarence Seedorf on Tuesday, with 2 from Robinho, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Alexandre Pato ahead of him. Width is provided by the 2 full-backs, likely to be Massimo Oddo and Luca Antonini, while Robinho and Kevin Prince Boateng can also drift wide from advanced positions- their squad is also vastly experienced. Tottenham have a much younger squad, and, depending on the availability of Rafael van der Vaart, play a straighforward 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1. They place a much greater emphasis on width than AC Milan, with the wingers being supported by offensive full-backs Alan Hutton and Benoit Assou-Ekotto. They can, however, be left short in the centre of midfield on occasion, particularly when playing 4-4-2.

The Verdict
It is clear, therefore, that where one team is weak, the other is strong, and vice versa. For instance, in the wide areas, we are likely to see down the Tottenham left 34-year old Massimo Oddo up against Gareth Bale, with Assou-Ekotto supporting on the overlap, and on the right Aaron Lennon taking on Luca Antonini, who is a natural winger, with Hutton rampaging forward in support. Conversely, AC Milan should regularly outnumber Tottenham in the centre of midfield, even without the injured Andrea Pirlo and Massimo Ambrosini and the ineligible Mark van Bommel (reportedly a Tottenham target in January). This should lead to opportunities for Mathieu Flamini, the veteran Gennaro Gattuso and the youngster Alexander Merkel to start. In attack, AC Milan have a number of options to call upon for their front 3 positions, even with Antonio Cassano ineligible, and should give the Tottenham backline, which has been hit extremely hard by injuries this season, a thorough examining, and should edge this first leg.

The Bet
AC Milan can make the most of home advantage and Tottenham injury worries to win, and are availabe at 4/5 with Boylesports. Tottenham do not do cagey and defensive, so expect goals- Stan James will give you 8/1 on a 2-1 AC Milan victory, with 10/11 generally available on over 2.5 goals