Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group F

Reigning champions Italy are favourites to progress, with the other 2nd round place likely to be a straight fight between Paraguay and Slovakia, with New Zealand coach Ricki Herbert freely admitting his side are happy just to be in South Africa

Italy
After stepping down for Euro 2008, World Cup-winning coach Marcello Lippi has stuck faith with much of the side that triumphed in Germany in 2006- as many as 9 of the team that won the World Cup are likely starters this time round, which has its pluses and minuses: one of the main strengths of that side was their mental strength and resilience; Lippi created a siege mentality within the squad in the wake of the Calciopoli scandal. However, even back then some of the side seemed past their best, and their likely starting line-up contains 7 players over 30. There are concerns about a lack of mobility in a central midfield likely to contain 2 of those 30-somethings, namely Andrea Pirlo and Gennaro Gattuso, around whom doubts surround; Pirlo has been struggling with a calf injury, while Gattuso is no longer a 1st-choice at AC Milan, and hasn't had much match practice this season. At the back, while Gigi Buffon is one of the very best keepers in the world, there are doubts about the rest of the defence. Fabio Cannavaro has had a woeful season for Juventus (who have now released him. After the World Cup, he's off to the Middle East for some nice petrodollars) and AC Milan full-back is another of the over 30s and looks it. Lippi has at least replaced Marco Materazzi, although his replacement Giorgio Chiellini hasn't fully convinced- it will be interesting to see if Lippi puts in one or both of promising younger options Leonardo Bonucci and Domenico Criscito. Back in 2006, Lippi recognised his lack of a truly top-class centre-forward, and thus decided to take an arsenal of 6 attackers, all with different qualities, a decision that paid dividends. He has adopted a similar approach this time. The forward line features the goalscoring instincts of Alberto Gilardino and Gianpaolo Pazzini, the workrate and industry of Marco Borriello, Serie A's top scorer Antonio Di Natale, the physical presence of Vincenzo Iaquinta and the unpredictablility of Fabio Quagrialella. Providing Lippi's team can provide service to whichever 2 or 3 start in attack, they should progress comfortably, although they may struggle to make an impression beyond that

Paraguay
Argentinian coach Gerardo Martino's side qualified impressively for their 4th consecutive World Cup. They boast an impressive array of attacking talent, even without striker Salvdor Cabanas, who was shot in the head (no, really) in January; Benfica's Oscar Cardozo is set to be partnered by 1 or 2 from Man City benchwarmer Roque Santa Cruz, Dortmund striker Nelson Valdez or Pachuca's Edgar Benitez. And then there's the man this writer is tipping to make a big impact this summer, Valdez's strike partner at Dortmund, Lucas Barrios. Argentinian-born Barrios only received his Paraguayan citizenship earlier this year, but has already found the new for Martino's side in warm-up games, after a fantastic first season in Germany. He too is in contention to start with Cardozo. The problems for Paraguay, however, lie in midfield and defence. If Martino wants to go with 3 of his strikers upfront, then he'll have to swith to 4-3-3, a formation that Paraguay struggled with during qualifying- Martino may yet go 4-4-2 and use Barrios as an impact sub. The defence, which features Sunderland centre-back Paulo Da Silva, is solid enough alongisde the experienced Julio Cesar Caceres, however behind them 5ft 10 keeper Justo Villar is suspect at crosses. They do, though, have sufficient firepower to get them into round 2

Slovakia
This is their first appearance at a World Cup as an independent nation. They took great pride in defeating the Czech Republic in qualifying, and sealed top spot in Group 3 with a 1-0 win away to Poland. They have some highly-rated individuals- Martin Skrtel and Vladimir Weiss Jr (Vladimir Weiss Sr is the coach, and represented Czechosolvakia at Italia 90) both have Premier League experience, while talented Napoli playmaker Marek Hamsik captains the side at the tender age of 22. The squad is a young one- their provisional 30-man squad contained only 5 players into their 30s- with much of the focus being on Hamsik. There is no doubting Hamsik's ability, and he may well find himself moving on to an even bigger stage after the World Cup, but can he lead his side to round 2, particularly given doubts over Skrtel's fitness? They may just fall short

New Zealand
With the recent seismic shift in the Earth's surface that resulted in Australia becoming part of Asia, the Oceania qualifying section suddenly became New Zealand's to lose. They managed to see off the collective might of New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Vanderreal and Bahrain to make it to their first World Cup since 1982. I may have made one of those teams up. Expect Ricki Herbert's side to go with 4-4-2 or 4-5-1, with hard-as-nails Blackburn centre-back Ryan Nelsen captaining the side. While they lack the ability to seriously challenge for a place in round 2, they will look to threaten from set pieces, while they are industrious and hard-working. It's difficult to see them managing even 1 point from their 3 games against superior side, but they won't embarass themselves

The bets for Group F:
Italy to win Group F: best price 8/15 with Blue Square
Paraguay top goalscorer Oscar Cardozo: best price 4/1 with bet365
Slovakia to win 3 group points: best price 10/3 with Blue Square
New Zealand to score over 1.5 goals: best price 4/5 with bwin