Maybe This Battle Is To Fight Indifference

Ahoy-ahoy!

We're into August now so probably time for some gloriously disjointed pre-season previews, along with some other random musings

There will be more previews (probably) from me before the season starts, but for today let's have a quick look at the 3 teams promoted to the EPL, along with Dundee and Hamilton

Burnleh
Very much a surprise package in last season's Championship, and as such not massively equipped with Premier League experience and quality , but high on enthusiasm and youthful endeavour- not unlike the position Crystal Palace were in 12 months ago (signings such as Marvin Sordell, Michael Kightly and Lukas Jutkiewicz very much fit that bill). They have to start as favourites for relegation and indeed that will probably be where they end up, but they're a well-run club who won't bankrupt themselves chasing the impossible. They should be a decent watch, too

QPR and Leicester
These 2 are getting lumped together as there are numerous similarities between them. Both have spent (and will probably spend more yet) squillions on their sides thanks to not-at-all-dodgy Asia owners, both based their Championship successes of last season on strong, robust defences, expect to see some eye-bleedingly bad football from both sides, and both will probably survive by the skin of their teeth on the final day, thanks to some frantic January transfer window activity and maybe a change of manager or 2


Dundee
Last season's 1st Division winners have added a good mix of youth and experience to their side- fine young talents from the SFL such as Paul McGinn, Greg Stewart and Scott Bain come in along with old heads of the SPL such as James McPake, Kevin Thomson and Paul McGowan as part of a comprehensive squad overhaul by up-and-coming manager Paul Hartley. Their squad is as strong as any outside the top 6, and they should therefore avoid the relegation places quite comfortably. Being on a more sound financial footing these days, thanks on part to having a larger support base than many of their direct competitors, should ensure there's funds available should Hartley feel the need to strengthen further

Hamilton
Not unlike the aforementioned Burnley, Hamilton's promotion was a tad unexpected, but they capitalised on the fact that Hibs are shite to seal their place in the Premiership. They have a very successful youth system, which makes up a significant part of their side. They've added a quality goalkeeper in Michael McGovern, who finally gets a chance to play regularly in the Premiership, along with experienced winger and all-round pest Dougie Imrie, and player-manager Alex Neil will still pull on his boots when required. There's a startling lack of Premiership experience outside those 3, though, and they don't have the supporter base of Dundee to finance extra signings if they're required come January. They'll play some decent stuff and work hard for each other, but that alone probably won't keep them out of the bottom 2 come May. Another adventure through the play-offs is a possibility. And now...

A Day Out at the Commonwealth Games
Earlier this week, this intrepid reporter decided to take in some action at the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. This involved a trip to the newly-converted-and-soon-to-be-converted-back-again Hampden Park.

The weather was pleasant enough, and the route from the city centre well signposted to allow us to walk from George Square out to Hampden. 45 minutes later, we were in the International, a regular pre-match haunt for Scotland games. A very reasonably priced pint and a game of pool took us to just past 5pm, at which point the games to Hampden opened ahead of a 6:30pm start for the athletics. The route from the pub to the stadium was exceptionally well-marked, with enthusiastic volunteers every few hundred metres pointing folk in the right direction- this was the case inside the stadium too. The security at the games had been much talked about, but in reality it was nowhere near as onerous as it was made to sound, and certainly nothing like what one can expect at an airport these days.

Once inside the stadium (security was cleared in 5 minutes, with plenty of lanes run by staff as friendly as you're ever likely to get running these operations), the catering facilities were a significant upgrade on the usual Hampden fare- a wide variety of hot and cold meals and snacks were available, along with a selection of beer, wine and cider. Admittedly, the prices were on the high side, and there were understandably some queues at some outlets (15 minutes was the longest wait I personally had for some fish and chips), but it was massively refreshing and encouraging to see such choice.

After the athletics (£40 for 3 1/2 hours of top-end competition), the weather again was forgiving enough to allow a walk back to Queen Street (shout out to Scotrail here for putting on extra trains on many routes). There were, however, shuttle buses as far as the eye could see to ferry spectators back to the city centre, with ample staff again on hand. I could go on, but won't and will instead get to the point.

Why can't we have this for football matches at Hampden? Why do we not get extra catering facilities at Hampden for cup finals 9and semi finals) and Scotland qualifiers? Where are our extra shuttle buses? Outside of the services between Central Station and Mount Florida (which are at the behest of the police more than anything) where are our extra trains? On the pitch, the Scotland national team are doing as well as they have done in a long time. Off the pitch, however, there's plenty of room for improvement





SHOUT OUT TO "THE BOSS" JIM STEACY (CANADA), MENS HAMMER THROW GOLD MEDAL WINNER

Pain Is Brown, Hate Is White, Love Is Black, Stab The Night

2 more last-16 games for me to preview (totally not rushing here. Honest)

Argentina v Switzerland
I'll get the headline out of the way first: Switzerland are going to win. Now, to explain: Argentina as a TEAM have simply not been all that impressive so far- far too reliant on Messi in attack, uncertain defensively and far too cautious in midfield- witness coach Alejandro Sabella's insistence on retaining 2 defensive midfielders (Mascherano and Gago) when striving to break down a resilient Iran defence. With Sergio Aguero set to miss this game, Sabella will be forced to look to his bench where, quite frankly, he does not have the same quality of replacements. Ezequiel Lavezzi is Aguero's most likely replacement and while he does offer considerable pace, his finishing lets him down far too often. Sabella's other options include the workmanlike but limited Rodrigo Palacio, or a return to the 5-3-2 shape with which they looked distinctly unimpressive in their opening game v Bosnia. Switzerland, meanwhile, have flown under the radar somewhat in Brazil. As expected, they qualified in 2nd place from their group, edging past Ecuador, being picked off ruthlessly by France, before making light work of Honduras. Ottmar Hitzfeld has a very neat, tidy, well-balanced side with plenty of youthful endeavour and, in Xherdan Shaqiri, a genuine world-class attacker. Lionel Messi isn't the only top-quality diminutive left-footed playmaking genius on display here. There's another big shock coming in this tournament
The verdict: Switzerland will eventually beat Argentina- or Argentina will beat themselves (their World Cup knockout stages record is awful)
The bet: Switzerland to qualify at best odds of 7/2 general

Belgium v USA
Much-hyped (over-hyped in this writer's humble opinion) before the tournament, Belgium cruised through their group as expected, although it took some considerable time, and a switching to plan B, to do so in each game- 4 goals from 3 games is also less than the return than many were expecting from such a talented attack. The USA lack the individual quality of Belgium (and indeed arguably any side still in the competition bar Costa Rica). However, there's an outstanding team spirit in their side fostered by Jürgen Klinsmann (one can easily picture him being quite the motivational speaker), plus some players of genuine potential- tireless right-back Fabian Johnson has been a real find, while Clint Dempsey has excelled all across the front line. This could be a slow-burner.
The verdict: For various reasons, it'll take more than 90 minutes to separate these two
The bet: The draw is available at 5/2 general. You'll get 11/10 with Youwin on a draw at half-time too




"ARE YOU COMING ON TO ME?"

SPOILER ALERT: Maggie Did It

Now, to continue what I started yesterday:

Costa Rica v Greece
Let's be honest: who expected this to be a last 16 match? While Costa Rica were never going to simply roll over as whipping boys in Group D, their progress as group winners was still a sizeable shock. Greece, meanwhile, were, well, Greece- for the most part as exciting as watching paint dry, but remorselessly effective at frustrating stronger opponents. This Greece side are actually slightly more proactive than in previous years (watch for Torosidis and Holebas venturing forward from full-back). With both sides in unchartered territory, and in with a chance of progressing even further, one has to expect both sides will favour a cautious approach, at least to begin with.
The verdict: it might take extra-time and penalties, but Greece's tournament nous might just take them to the last 8
The bet: half-time score 0-0 at 5/4 general

France v Nigeria
This game has the potential to be just about anything- a wild, end-to-end classic, a demolition job by either team, or a cagey, nervy snoozefest. France rung the changes for their final group game v Ecuador, so a) they have fresh legs to bring in to face Stephen Keshi's mobile, athletic Nigeria side, and b) don't read too much into their slightly below-par performance. Nigeria impressed in their 3-2 defeat to Argentina, only eventually being undone by 2 moments of magic from Lionel Messi. They can run France close in this one, but there's a suspicion that their outstanding goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama will have just a bit too much work to do behind a somewhat porous defence. Slightly depressingly, the usual worries over bonus payments have started up, too
The verdict: France to edge an entertaining encounter
The bet: Both teams to score at 11/10 general

Germany v Algeria
Algeria were vastly underestimated by many- they frustrated Belgium for long spells, impressively brushed aside South Korea and then did the job required of them against, it has to be said, a disappointing Russia side to progress from Group H. Germany comfortably topped their group- with their vast array of attacking options, they shouldn't struggle for goals. The call for Jogi Low for this game should be to bring in Miroslav Klose from the start- Algeria's eventual undoing against Belgium came as a result of an alarming inability to defend against crosses, and it's that glaring weakness that, even with a talented midfield, will prove their undoing here
The verdict: Germany to win a gaols-laden match
The bet: over 3.5 goals at best odds of 13/8 with Coral

Am I Insane? I Ask Myself Over And Over Again

32 came. 16 have been sent home with their tails between their legs. How will the remaining 16 do? Let's have a gander at some of the 2nd round games: (that 1st bit works really well if you imagine Gerard Butler reading it in a deep, serious voice. The 2nd bit less so)

Brazil v Chile
Brazil topped their group, but looked far from impressive for long spells, most notably versus Croatia (where a couple of questionable refereeing decisions went their way) and Mexico (who were full value for their draw), before comfortably dispatching of a clearly demotivated Cameroon. It's clear that, Neymar aside, this is a functional unit that lacks real quality in attack- were they not called Brazil and playing on home soil, there's no way they'd be anywhere near as heavily fancied as they are. Chile, on the other hand, have been genuinely thrilling, dispatching of Spain with an eye-catching intensity and all-out commitment to attack. Their "meh" attitude to defending will most likely prevent them from winning the tournament at some point, but, having already seen off the reigning champions, there's every reason to reckon they can put the hosts out too.
Verdict: Chile to triumph in a topsy-turvy, wild and wacky match
The bet: Chile draw no bet at best odds of 15/4 with 888sport

Colombia v Uruguay
Arguably the best team of the tournament so far, with arguably its best player (James Rodriguez) as its creative fulcrum, Colombia were extremely impressive in making light work of their group. They have a plethora of quality striking options, with plenty of support from midfield (the aforementioned James is the star, but don't overlook the tricky, direct, powerful Juan Cuadrado on the right, and the wonderfully talented diminutive playmaker Juan Quintero) and adventurous full-backs, they could be at this tournament for some time. Uruguay, meanwhile, only just managed to scrap their way out of their group- this looks like the end of the line for some of the more experienced among their rank, while apart from the impressive young centre-back Jose Maria Gimenez, there aren't yet the quality of replacements coming through. With their main attacking threat now muzzled, they're on their way home.
Verdict: Colombia to break down stubborn Uruguay resistance
The bet: Colombia to win at best odds of 21/20 with Paddy Power

Holland v Mexico
This should be a fascinating tactical battle. Louis van Gaal has arguably been the best coach of the tournament so far, shifting his side effortlessly from 5-3-2 to 4-3-3 and back as circumstances require. His players have shown remarkable commitment to his ideals, too- witness Wesley Sneijder chasing Chilean midfielders all over the park, and Dirk Kuyt putting in a shift at left wing-back. Mexico, too, will use 5-3-2 initially, also with a significant degree of flexibility- both wing-backs will bomb on at will, while Rafael Marquez is more than capable of carrying the ball out of defence. Giovani dos Santos should again operate just off Oribe Peralta in attack, which will pose plenty of questions for van Gaal.
Verdict: Holland to just edge an intriguing encounter
The bet: Holland to win at best odds of 23/20 with Bet Victor





IF I STAY OUT OF THE PUB, THE REST OF THE GAMES WILL BE PREVIEWED OVER THE WEEKEND

We're Heading For Venus, And Still We Stand Tall

And we're off!

A tremendous game last night got Group A underway, but there's still (just) time to take a quick look at the groups I've not yet written up:

Group C- Cruising Through The Heat Lap Trial
This group was shook up when Colombia confirmed that they would be without Falcao this summer. Without him, Colombia are still a perfectly decent side, although they now arguably lack the world-class Number 9 who can get them out of trouble in the later stages. They should still win (and probably top) this group, but they're not quite of the same level as the sides generally in with a chance of winning the tournament. They're an adventurous side under Argentinian boss Jose Pekerman (Argentina's head coach at the 2006 World Cup), and Falcao's potential replacements are all of respectable pedigree- the industrious, workmanlike (although not in Falcao's league when it comes to finishing) Sevilla striker Carlos Bacca, Dortmund-bound Adrian Ramos, River Plate's unpredictable livewire Teo Gutierrez and Porto's cha-cha dancing Jackson Martinez. Pekerman usually played 2 upfront during qualifying, and will likely continue that philosophy in Brazil, certainly in the group stages. The main supply for the striker(s) will come from the wings, where Monaco's James Rodriguez from the left and Fiorentina's Juan Cuadrado from the right, both wonderfully direct and more than capable of getting on the scoresheet themselves, will provide support, themselves ably assisted by rampaging full-backs Pablo Armero (left) and Juan Zuniga (right). All this, however, does leave the central areas exposed. With 38 year old Mario Yepes (still commanding aerially, but with about as much pace on the turn as you'd expect from a 38 year old) occupying 1 central defensive berth (alongside him will be Carlos Valdes), don't expect too much adventure from central midfield (especially not with 2 Napoli wing-backs in the full-back positions). The main worry here is that with so many potent attacking players bombing on, and a defence that will surely be inclined to sit relatively deep, there could be massive spaces opening up between Colombia's defence and midfield. While Greece lack the creative talent to exploit those spaces, Japan a defence resolute enough to contain Colombia's potent attack, and Ivory Coast a combination of the 2, Colombia will surely come unstuck against the very top teams in the tournament. They'll be great fun to watch, though.

Of the rest of the teams in Group C, Ivory Coast are perhaps the most (over?) hyped of the 3. As always, there's no shortage of talented, powerful attacking players (even though the talismanic Didier Drogba is some way past his best, and should come under pressure for his starting place from Wilfried Bony). Support will come from Yaya Toure (given more freedom under Sabri Lamouchi) and widemen Salomon Kalou and the rejuvenated Gervinho- providing all are on form (and Toure's long season hasn't affected his output) there are enough goals in this team to get through. The defence, though, is an area of considerable concern. A central defensive partnership of Kolo Toure and Souleymane Bamba ,with Boubacar Barry behind them, is about as defensively secure as it sounds, and while full-backs Serge Aurier and Arthur Boka are both fine going forward, their lack of height leaves them vulnerable to back-post crosses (particularly if Gervinho and Kalou don't track the adventurous full-backs they will face in the group stage (yes, even Greece's full-backs will get forward. A bit). Japan are a neat, tidy side with some accomplished players in midfield (Keisuke Honda and Shinji Kagawa being the standouts), while plenty of their number have made their way to the Bundesliga recently. Like Colombia and Ivory Coast, scoring goals shouldn't be the problem for Alberto Zaccheroni's side- it's the defence that causes concern, where both height and a convincing goalkeeper are lacking. Greece, on the other hand, are a much more obdurate, resilient bunch. The tried and tested formula from their historic Euro 2004 triumph has been retained, even though only Giorgios Karagounis remains from that side (and he now plays a completely different role- the former number 10 is now stationed at the base of midfield as a scrapper). There have been a few tweaks to the side since 2004- expect to see the full-backs be given a bit more license to push forward (on the right will be Vasilis Torosidis, who was signed for Roma by Zdenek Zeman. Enoguh said), and the back line probably won't be quite as deep as previously. But the overall gameplan won't change- Greece will be extremely compact and hard-working without the ball, and not over-commit with it, instead hoping to win set-pieces to try and nick games 1-0 (incidentally, 5 of their 12 qualifiers ended with such a scoreline in their favour). If Greece are playing on any given evening, it's probably worth your while spending that afternoon painting a wall, so you've got something more exciting to do when the game starts by watching said Dulux Emulsion dry. It won't be pretty, but there's enough defensive nous (and enough weaknesses in the defences of their group rivals) to see Greece sneak into the second round

BETTING:
Colombia to win Group C: best odds 19/20 with Spreadex
Greece Stage of Elimination Round 2: best odds 7/2 with Coral
Ivory Coast v Japan over 2.5 goals and both teams to score: best odds 7/4 with bet365


GAS MAN! GAS MAN! GAS MAN!

Graeme's Silly Bet World Cup Special: Life Is Life

The Shiftyslastword World Cup preview wouldn't be complete without a contribution from our favourite guest contributor, Graeme of Silly Bet fame:

GRAEME'S SILLY WORLD CUP BETS

I am so fucking excited, gambling is back!

I haven't placed a bet since the final day of the Premier League season, once again I didn't win. Thanks Norwich you shower.

This years World Cup is perfect for me, most games start just after dinner and close just at last orders in the pub. The only downside is that we will all have to watch some Samba themed Ray Winstone 'bet now' shite. These adverts must be paying well for him because they have ruined any chance of him not playing a cock in any future films.

Due to my copious listening to various football podcasts over the past few weeks I feel pretty informed about the state off the respective squads in the World Cup. With their chances and foibles.

Therefore this isn't going to be a silly bet but more an alternative look at who this years winners and losers for me are going to be.

Winner -

 Brazil, as long as they beat Spain, Chile or Netherlands in the second round

Failures - 

Do Not bet on the Germans. Injuries are mounting up for them and a quarter final place will be an achievement in my opinion

Uruguay -  are also old and going to be mince.

Inevitible Dark Horses prediction - 

Inevitable Dark Horses prediction - 

Take your pick from one of Chile/ Columbia/The Swiss/England/Belgium

Incidently you can bet at Paddy Power on the first pundit to mention Belgium as this years dark horses.

If Sturridge can start finishing in big games England could do very well I reckon.

Crash and Burners -

Russia- they have no players from outwith the Russian leagues, they are going to be shit.

Ecudor will not score a goal, I'm putting a pound on that (25/1 with Skybet- Ed)

I also think France will bottle it in the second round,

Cameroon, wiithout Yann Songo'o they are going to ship goals.

On the plus side, if England do well and achieve the unthinkable, the yes vote will win in the Scottish independence referendum. As Shifty supports Scottish independence I'm sure he will be roaring England all the way to victory. Honestly, however, after the juicy second round matches that are going to be served up by various groups of death I can't really predict much more, although I did have a dream that Brazil beat Argentina 3-1 in the final.

Enjoy this month kickbaw and I leave you with this video of Diego.

I Feel So Extraordinary, Something's Got A Hold On Me

We are T minus 3 days from the opening game of the 2014 World Cup, so let's get the remainder of the tournament written up on here. And, given that said opening game is Brazil v Croatia, let's focus this evening's efforts on their group

Brazil: Home Advantage
The bookies all have Brazil as favourites to win the tournament at around the 3/1 mark, and it's more than justified: this is a side that, while not quite as technically outstanding as, say, Spain 2010 or Brazil 1970, and without the iron-willed defence of some of the great Germany and Italy sides to have conquered the world, this is still a very strong, well-balanced side, with a potent mix of youth and experience, without any obvious weaknesses. The generous group they've been offered should allow Luiz Felipe Scolari's side the chance to ease themselves in to the tournament ahead of sterner tests to come in the knockout stage, the first of which will see them face either reigning champions Spain (who Brazil comfortably dismissed 3-0 at the Confederations Cup last year), a youthful, underwhelming Holland, or the wonderfully adventurous yet naïve Chile, all of which would pose a challenge, but one which you'd expect this Brazil side to overcome. Neymar is the obvious star of the side, and will play most often coming from the left into a central role, with Hulk doing likewise from the right. Fred will operate as target man, with Oscar at 10 (although don't be surprised if Scolari brings in an extra DM later in the tournament, especially if Oscar takes his indifferent club form at Chelsea with him into the tournament). They are rightly favourites to win the tournament- indeed, it would be a considerable surprise if they didn't at least the semi-finals. They have everything they need to win.

The Rest
Of the remaining 3 teams in Group A, Croatia have the most tournament experience, Cameroon perhaps the most raw talent, and Mexico a combination of the 2 after their Under 23 side won the Gold Medal at the 2012 Olympics, 10 of whom have made their final 23. That tournament aside, it's notoriously difficult to assess just how good this Mexico side is- much of their side plays in the Mexican league, they don't frequently test themselves against nations outside Central America, and many of the squad that made an almighty mess of their qualifying campaign have been replaced by the 2012 Gold Medal winning generation. Their FIFA ranking of 20 (just below Croatia in 18th, and some way ahead of 56th placed Cameroon) suggests they've got a decent chance of qualifying, but their lack of experience may see them fall just short- the experience should see this young side in good stead for 2018, though. The more things change, they more they stay the same is a mantra that could easily apply to this Cameroon side. The raw talent is there in certain positions, although question marks exist over their discipline- they were extremely physical in a recent 2-2 friendly draw with Germany (more proof of that raw talent), which featured many late, crude challenges, especially from their 3 man central midfield anchored by Barcelona's Alex Song, with Stephan M'Bia and Eyong Enoh among the contenders for the other 2 positions. Maintain the style they demonstrated in that game, and it would be no surprise to see Volker Finke's men pick up a red card in one of their games- they've also only just dealt with their standard dispute with the Cameroonian FA regarding pay. All this leaves Croatia best-placed to make it to the last 16- an immensely talented midfield with Luka Modric joined by the outstanding Ivan Rakitic (set to be on his way to Barcelona from Sevilla) and Inter protégé Mateo Kovacic supplemented by an experienced back 4 and a respectable, if not quite world-class, attack, should see Niko Kovac's men into the knockout stages, although probably not much further.

Group A Bets
Brazil to win the World Cup- best price 3/1 general
Croatia Stage of Elimination Last 16- best price 11/5 with Ladbrokes
Cameroon to commit the most fouls in Group A- best price 5/4 with Paddy Power



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Salutations!

With just 11 days to go until the start of the World Cup, let's have a look at another of the groups. Which team are potential winners? Who will probably get out of the group but not get much further? Who's going home early? Let's have a look at Group E

France: Rare Harmony
When one thinks of France at tournaments, one thinks of talented yet combustible, enigmatic bunches of players- witness their shambolic campaign in South Africa in 2010, and the mutinous atmosphere that underpinned many previous tournaments, where senior players effectively ran the show in the absence of a strong manager. The significantly younger crew that Didier Deschamps is taking to Brazil has all the talent of their predecessors and then some, but are a far more harmonious, well-balanced bunch. Qualifying for the tournament may not have gone smoothly, yet they demonstrated their mental fortitude by overturning a 2-0 deficit to Ukraine in their play-off. They'll play 4-3-3, with an exciting blend of youth and experience throughout. Hugo Lloris will captain the team in goal- the Spurs keeper is one of the finest in Europe, and one of the few from his club to emerge with any credit from a fairly shambolic season. Patrice Evra has served his time over his role in 2010 and retains his place at left-back- PSG's Lucas Digne travels to Brazil as his deputy, and should eventually succeed him. Central defence should see Mamadou Sakho, 2 goal hero of that play-off victory, paired with Real Madrid's excellent youngster Raphael Varane, with Mathieu Debuchy should get the nod over Bacary Sagna. The midfield is genuinely excellent and one of the finest at the World Cup, featuring PSG team-mates Blaise Matuidi and Yohan Cabaye alongside the outstanding young powerhouse Paul Pogba (yeah, Mr Ferguson, he actually is as good as he thinks he is)- Matuidi will provide the defensive screening to allow Cabaye to provide the creativity and clever probing and Pogba the power and thrust. The front 3 aren't bad, either- Karim Benzema has hit a purple patch of form at just the right time (with Olivier Giroud as a more than capable backup option), with Franck Ribery providing service from one flank, and the diminutive genius Mathieu Valbuena set to get the nod on the other (Real Sociedad's Antoine Griezmann is an exciting wildcard option off the bench). Providing they get the job done and top the group, a favourable last-16 tie should be awaiting them, ahead of a potential quarter-final with Germany.

The Rest: Neat, Tidy, Cosmopolitan and Goalless
Switzerland, Ecuador and Honduras make up the rest of Group E. Their official ranking of 7th is about as credible as, well, most things FIFA have their pawprints on these days, but the Swiss should still progress from the group. They're a decent side with the exciting generation who got to the final of the 2011 European Under 21 Championship, among them that tournament's star player Xherdan Shaqiri, Admir Mehmedi, Granit Xhaka and Yann Sommer (plus 3 of the 7 standby players), starting to break through at full international level, plus a number of good-but-not-quite-world-class players who are regulars in Europe's top leagues. The legendary Ottmar Hitzfeld, for whom retirement beckons after the tournament, will lead this cosmopolitan crew (many of the players, Shaqiri, Xhaka and Napoli's Gokhan Inler among them, have dual citizenship) to Brazil. Shaqiri struggled for regular game time at Bayern Munchen this season, but he remains a key player for the Swiss, and will probably start on the right of a 4-2-3-1 system, and look to come inside on his left foot. The group itself is fairly kind on Switzerland, and qualification is to be expected. What's less kind, however, is that they're likely to face Argentina in round 2.

Having not appeared at a single World Cup before 2002, Ecuador have now qualified for 3 of the last 4 World Cups, reaching the 2nd round in 2006. Matching that this time round, however, could well be beyond them. Their record during qualifying makes for interesting reading- unbeaten at home, yet not a single victory away (they play home qualifiers at altitude)- they also suffered the tragic loss of key frontman Christian Benitez. They'll probably be better equipped to deal with the oppressive heat the teams will face in Brazil (they play Switzerland at 1pm local time on June 15th, when conditions are supposedly the toughest), but it's difficult to see them having enough firepower in Benitez's absence to make real progress.

Honduras are very much the outsiders of the group, and indeed one of the weakest teams at the entire tournament. There are few familiar faces in the squad (or at least few that will be familiar to anyone that doesn't follow Wigan Athletic), and they have struggled for goals (only managing 13 in 10 Central American qualifying games). There are some survivor from their 2010 World Cup campaign (where they managed a goalless draw with Switzerland after defeats to Chile and Spain), but it would be a major shock if they were to pose any threat to France and Switzerland.

Here's a few Group E-based punts for y'all to look at:

France to reach the quarter finals: best price 11/10 with Boylesports
Straight forecast: France-Switzerland-Ecuador-Honduras best price 2/1 with Bwin
Honduras v Ecuador Under 2.5 goals best price 3/4 with Bet Victor



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Good evening, ladies and germs

Some more pre-World Cup chitter chatter for your enjoyment, along with 1 or 2 other tasty morsals:

Uruguay have options even without Suarez
There was much hubbub last week when the news broke that Luis Suarez was to undergo knee surgery just 3 weeks before the start of the World Cup. Depending on which media outlet you used, the prognosis was an absence of anywhere from 2 to 6 weeks, meaning he'd be anywhere from being fine in time for their 1st game (v Costa Rica on 14th June) to missing the entire tournament. Should the latter turn out to be the more accurate prognosis, it won't necessarily mean the end of Oscar Tabarez's side's chances at the tournament. Aside from Palermo's Abel Hernandez, there are no real out-and-out number 9s among Tabarez's initial 25, but he does possess the option of moving Edinson Cavani forward from the slightly deeper role he prefers with the national team and bringing in another holder or playmaker, depending on the opponent. Of course, that's assuming they stay with the 4-3-1-2 they've often used in the past. Tabarez has demonstrated himself to be an extremely astute tactician, however, and has used a number of different formations in the past. Don't rule out the deployment of a back 3 at some stage, which would again provide the option of using another midfield player behind a front 2. Another option open to Uruguay is 4-3-3, with Cavan deployed at centre-forward supported by Diego Simeone's favourite impact sub Cristian Rodriguez on the left and Benfica powerhouse Maxi Pereira on the right, a role he's operated in on occasion for his club side this season. If Uruguay enter their final group game still in need of a result to qualify for the 2nd Round, however, then expect even a semi-fit Suarez to be rolled out (the same goes for another South American injury doubt, Colombia star Falcao)

It happened in 1988
Ayrton Senna won his 1st Formula 1 World Drivers Championship, the Netherlands won the European Championship (beating USSR 2-0 in the final, thanks to that Marco van Basten volley), this writer was born, Metallica released the ...And Justice for All album, the first Die Hard movie was released, George Bush was elected as POTUS and PSV Eindhoven won the European Cup. Now, 2 of those things are significant when we look at the World Cup.

Not since 1998 has a nation provided the winner of both the European Cup and a major nations tournament in the same year- you have to go back to 2004 to find a European Cup winning country providing even a finalist for that summer's major international tournament. Anyone who has followed Atletico Madrid throughout the last month of the season will have seen that, despite their historic achievement of winning La Liga (massive, massive props to Diego Simeone), they have looked more than a little tired, and by the end of the Champions League final were completely exhausted from a long season (with that in mind, expect Real's Dani Carvajal to get the nod at right-back over Juanfran, while there must now be some doubt over Diego Costa's participation). The other 2 dominant Spanish sides have also had long seasons (as discussed in my previous entry)- all of which and more works against Spain when considering contenders to win in Brazil.

Financial Fair Play
In the wake of some actual sanctions being imposed by UEFA on non-compliant clubs (including, but not limited to, PSG and Manchester City), there's been much wailing about the, ahem, fairness, of these new rules, with the global players' union, FIFPro being the latest to voice their discontent. The rules are an all too rare thing- well-intentioned and applied appropriately. Those that wish to genuinely grow a club for the long-term advancement of its prospects can do so without penalty- activities such as stadium expansion and building a youth academy are exempt from sanction- it's the short-term stockpiling of non-local players on exorbitant, unsustainable, market-distorting salaries that FFP is designed to clamp down on. And for those who say "Yeah, but it's Sheikh Mansour/Qatar's money, they can do what they like with it, they're in it for the long haul", speak to supporters of Portsmouth, Leeds United, Plymouth, Rangers (1878-2012), Dundee, Malaga, Rangers (2012-present), indeed Manchester City themselves under Thaksin Shinawatra and many, many others besides, about owners who have promised the earth, only to fail to deliver




IN FOR SHERINGHAM.......AND SOLSKJAER HAS WON IT!

We Don't Need No Education....

...Yes you do, you just used a double negative

Evening. Having looked at a few individual players for the Golden Boot contest at the World Cup, it's time to start looking at the teams themselves. Who'll go far? Who'll be sent packing with their tails betwixt their legs? Who will be the surprise packages? Will there be a decent fantasy football competition? Blogs about these and more are on the way

The logical place to start is, of course, Group A. But This blog doesn't work like that, so we'll shift along the wallchart (When Saturday Comes have a good one) and look at Group B, featuring Spain, Holland, Chile and Australia

A Step Too Far?
Spain's tournament pedigree these days is second to none (it's no coincidence that their youth teams have also been serial winning machines over the last decade). It's hard to avoid, however, a niggling feeling that we may be witnessing an era in its final throes not only with this current side, but also the Barcelona side who share so many of their players and defining characteristics- their sterile domination based on possession and ball retention has been at times brutally exposed by exponents of a rapid contain and counter style. Concerns must also exist over how much football many of their players have played this season, from those that have played perhaps too much (a number of the Barcelona and Atletico players will clear 60 games  this season by the time the tournament starts) to those who have perhaps played too little (Casillas, Torres, Llorente and Negredo have all struggled to get regular football this season), while as useful as Diego Costa will no doubt prove long-term, there must be question marks about how long it will take for his ultra-aggressive, physical game will fit into the precise passing unit that is La Seleccion. We leapt past Group A initially, but it's necessary to look back there for a second, simply to see the likely 2nd round opponents of the runner-up from this group: Brazil. Prediction: Pain for Spain

The rest of Group B looks like a straight fight between Chile and Holland (which should be fun, considering both teams have noteworthy history of World Cup scraps). Holland cruised through what was a very weak qualifying group, but there are serious doubts about their defence, which is hugely inexperienced at the top level. There are rumours flying around about Louis Van Gaal- the only one we'll look at here is that he's considering going with a 5-3-2 formation this summer. if your defenders aren't up to much, I guess it makes sense to play more of them. At the 2010 World Cup, Chile were a wonderfully adventurous, attacking, free-flowing side under the, well, mad, Marcelo Bielsa- his successor Jorge Sampaoli has continued much of his good work- expect Chile to once again be a fabulously entertaining watch. They're not without their vulnerabilities (goalkeeper Claudio Bravo is highly catastrophe-prone, and they're not exactly the tallest side, and thus poorly equipped to deal with set piece bombardment) and so can't really be considered potential winners, but they've more than enough firepower to outscore the Dutch and give Spain a hell of a fright. Nobody should expect anything from a youthful Australia side with one eye on the 2018 World Cup

SCOTTY 2 HOTTY: STILL GOT IT

If There's A New Way, I'll Be The First In Line. But It Had Better Work This Time

A follow-up to my preview of a few of the World Cup Golden Boot contenders (A follow-up! I've started a feature on here and am actually continuing with it!) as we look at a few more likely contenders:

Neymar (best odds 14/1 general)
The star man for the hosts, despite being just 22 he already has an impressive record for the Selecao of 33 goals in 48 appearances (including the Golden Ball award for Best Player at last summer's Confederations Cup). Likely to be deployed by Luiz Felipe Scolari initially from the left, with creative license to move infield, in a not dis-similar manner to the previously discussed Cristiano Ronaldo, a generous group should give Neymar opportunities to get at least 2 or 3 goals under his belt before the really serious business starts (even if Ross County's Yann Songo'o makes it into the Cameroon squad. 2 factors that work against Neymar, though, are his club form at Barcelona and the lack of other real stars among his team-mates. Firstly, while a record of 15 goals in 40 games is reasonable, it's difficult to look on his 1st season as a complete success- at times he appears to have upset the balance of what was an exceptionally well-oiled machine- at times, it's been difficult to justify his inclusion ahead of Alexis Sanchez (more on him later) and Pedro. As for the rest of the Brazil team, how much chances will the likes of Hulk, Fred & Jo really create for him? Brazil, though, should go far enough into the tournament for him to be among the leading Golden Boot contenders, though, and his price of 14/1 will only shorten as the tournament goes on

Karim Benzema (40/1 with Bet Victor)
Now here's an interesting contender. A true Number 9 hitting prime goalscoring form for a much-fancied outsider with a winnable group, Benzema has to an extent flown under the radar until recently- his price of 40/1 has shortened in the last few months from 66/1- indeed, some bookmakers have him as short as 20/1. Operating in a more central role than many that have been looked at so far, a strong supporting cast featuring the brilliance on the wing of Franck Ribery, the guile and passing range of Yohan Cabaye, the brute force, power and drive of Paul Pogba and the wildcard Antoine Griezmann should create plenty of chances for Benzema, who possesses all the qualities one would desire of a centre-forward. Opening games against Switzerland, Ecuador and Honduras should see Benzema rack up at least 2 or 3 goals early on in the tournament- with 6 goals being the average number being scored by the Golden Boot winner in the 8 tournaments where the last 4 play a total of 7 games, this should bring Benzema right into contention for the individual prize. If his team are good enough to compete for the teams' ultimate prize, Benzema could very well take the Golden Boot

The First of What Will Hopefully Be Many But Probably End Up About Three

Well then. We're rapidly approaching the World Cup (June 12th is the big date), and in the runup I intend to put a few entries on here about all manner of World Cup related patter. For tonight's musing, let's have a look at the main individual trinket on offer in Brazil, the Golden Boot.

What History Tells Us
Almost exclusively throughout its history, the Golden Boot has been won by either a well-known, established, experienced centre-forward (e.g. Miroslav Klose in 2006, Ronaldo in 2002, Gerd Muller in 1974) or a breakout superstar from relative obscurity (e.g Thomas Muller in 2010, Davor Suker in 1998, Salvatore Schillaci in 1990). With the exceptions of Muller in 2010 and Hristo Stoichkov in 1994, the winners could also all legitimately be described as out-and-out centre-forwards operating in traditional Number 9 territory. 5 Brazilians (Garrincha & Vava shared the award in 1962), 3 Germans (Gerd & Thomas Muller, along with Miroslav Klose in 2006), 2 Italians (Schillaci & Paolo Rossi in 1982) and 2 Argentinians have won the Golden Boot, a spread that bears a passing resemblance to the spread of teams who have won the World Cup, although only 4 World Cup winning teams (Brazil in 2002 the most recent) have also had the Golden Boot winner among their ranks. Having said that, only joint-winner Oleg Salenko in 1994 has won the award playing for a team who failed to make it beyond the 1st round of the tournament.

This Year's Contenders
With all that in mid, let's have a look at a few of the main contenders for the Golden Boot this summer:

Lionel Messi (best odds: 9/1 with Coral)
Despite not having the best season domestically, he has to be a serious contender, even with lingering doubts over his fitness after missing 2 months earlier this season. Argentina's group is a very accommodating one, with Switzerland or Ecuador their most likely Round of 16 opponents- opportunities to score shouldn't be in short supply. On the other hand, this could work against Messi & Argentina- no disrespect to Iran (with Carlos Queiroz in charge) & Nigeria (bundles of talent but a complete mess organisationally), but it's not difficult to imagine both adopting a "damage limitiation" mindset and seeking purely to deny Argentina. Given those aforementioned fitness concerns (and bear in mind he's not a pure centre-forward), it's also plausible that Messi could be used sparingly in the early stages of the tournament (particularly if Argentina qualify for Round 2 with a game to spare).  Definitely to be considered if you're willing to back him at as short as 9/1

Cristiano Ronaldo (14/1 general)
Likely to start from the left for Portugal with some sort of centre-forward (possibly Hugo Almeida) in a more conventional Number 9/placeholder role. Don't expect him to have to do much defensive work, either- he'll remain high up the pitch, with Paulo Bento looking to exploit him as the most devastatingly brilliant counter-attacker in the world. He'll have to carry the team a lot, though- this is far from an outstanding Portugal side, and what may ultimately stop him from winning the Golden Boot is that Portugal simply won't go far enough into the tournament. Avoid

Romelu Lukaku (33/1 general)
Now here's a prospect. Having a great season at club level (without an energy-sapping European campaign) with his future wide open leading the line for a much-fancied dark horse, Romelu Lukaku could make a real name for himself in Brazil. Belgium have a winnable group, and will fancy themselves to at least trouble whoever emerges from Group G as their 2nd Round opponent. A supporting cast of Hazard, De Bruyne, Mirallas & Witsel amongst others should create plenty of chances for Lukaku. Definitely one to watch, at decent each-way money too

Miroslav Klose (50/1 Spreadex)
It's what he does. Still playing regularly for Lazio, and likely to have as good a supporting cast as anyone (Muller, Reus, Podolski & Kroos won't all start. Draxler may not even make the squad), Klose simply cannot be discounted, even at 35 (he turns 36 3 days before the tournament starts). Only Ronaldo has more World Cup finals goals, and only Gerd Muller has as many goals for Germany

I'll run through a few more names in the coming weeks

When They're Playing In Your Town

Evening, y'all. It's been a while and all that, but here's a new entry from me. Various stuff you'd expect to see and some random stuff too

Good Old Tipping
Let's start with a look at this week's Champions League quarter-final 2nd legs, beginning with Bayern Munchen v Manchester United. Firstly, it's probably best to disregard the respective results of both teams at the weekend- both made wholesale changes to their starting XIs to what they're likely to field on Wednesday (plus the intricate interplay between MUFC's playmakers Juan Mata & Shinji Kagawa will most likely be shelved in favour of a contain & counter approach). Make no mistake, though- in the 1st leg United got at Bayern with an approach that, while not exactly expansive, was effective to a certain extent. Witness also Pep Guardiola's tetchy and frankly bizarre exchange with Guardian journalist Jamie Jackson in the post match press conference. One has to wonder, though, if Bayern will now find an extra gear to shift into- even with Javi Martinez & Bastian Schweinsteiger missing through suspension, replacements of the quality of Dante & Mario Gotze should mean they won't be too sorely missed. United can trouble Bayern, even if qualification may be beyond them. The bet here methinks in Both Teams to Score at 11/10 general. Elsewhere, Atletico Madrid & Barcelona are also tied at 1-1 after the 1st leg of their tie. These two have been extremely closely matched in their 4 meetings so far, with all 4 ending in draws (a 1-1 and an 0-0 at both the Vicente Calderon and the Camp Nou). Another low-scoring match looks on the cards here, with under 2.5 goals being the call at 4/5 general

A Lottery That's Actually Not A Lottery
The Grand National on Saturday was fun, wasn't it? I certainly thought so, although that's hardly surprising when you consider that, for the 2nd year running, I had picked the winner. How do I do it? Simple, really- I treat it in much the same way as any other horse race, doing my research, studying form and the like. It's important to remember when dealing with the National, though, that at over 4 miles, it's considerably longer than almost all of the races the horses will have competed, therefore form alone isn't always beneficial. For example, my selection of Pineau de Re had competed in a 3 mile race at Cheltenham last month and finished 3rd. Not much, on its own, but the horse actually finished extremely strongly, hinting at there being plenty more stamina in his legs, as well as the discipline to stay in the chasing pack early on, before showing a turn in pace near the end- none of these qualities were demonstrated in particular abundance by any of the supposed favourites such as Teaforthree and Monbeg Dude. I'll try and remember and post this in the run up to next year's race

Myth Debunking
Time for me to clear something up. It seems a few of you fell for my Facebook April Fool's Day declaration of support for the No campaign. Let me assure you that I shall be doing no such thing- I'll be keeping my opinion between me and the ballot box

And Finally....
I only caught extra-time and the pre-match reports of trouble in the Grassmarket, but yesterday's Ramsdens Cup Final brought back memories of my time at the League Cup Final with some Aberdeen fans last month. Similar to yesterday, the match itself was a fairly turgid affair, yet the clearly nervous 40,000 Aberdeen fans relentless continued to back their side, with a grand total of 0 arrests, in compete contrast to yesterday. There's a mental strength about this Aberdeen side that's getting them some big results where previously they would fail. It will be fascinating to monitor their progress in the next few years, especially as they will almost certainly be embarking on a Europa League campaign next season



"YES! YES! YES"!

If Jake The Snake Can Do It.....

'Tis the time for glorious comebacks, so here I am blogging again. A couple of topics for tonight, so let's get started with some good old-fashioned tipping:

Aston Villa v Arsenal

This one looks as if it will be decided not by which team will play better and win, but which team is least likely to make a catastrophic error to giftwrap the game to their opponents. Arsenal's love of a late-season collapse is of course well-documented, while they have of course suffered their standard quantity of season-derailing injuries- no more Theo Walcott for the season, although Olivier Giroud should be back for this one. In even more positive news, Nicklas Bendtner will miss the next few games. Villa, meanwhile, somehow find themselves in 11th place despite a mediocre season which has seen them record just 2 home wins all season. They have serious issues- Christian Benteke has gone way off the boil since signing his new contract (funny that), Andreas Weimann hasn't reproduced last season's form, their midfield (Fabian Delph aside) is desperately short on quality, while their defenders are among the finest exhibitors of physical comedy since Rik Mayall & Adrian Edmondson starred in Bottom. All that considered, it's hard not to fancy Arsenal to record another away win even at as short a price as 8/15. For something a little more adventurous, Giroud can be backed to mark his return by scoring 2 or more goals at 13/2

Anderson
So, it looms like Anderson is departing Old Trafford to head to Fiorentina. His story is one of undoubted potential that, for a variety of reasons, was never fully realised. Injuries, immaturity, a goalscoring record so bad it became a bad joke and a squad rotation policy that never allowed him the run of games that could have allowed him to truly establish himself all played their part. Anderson in a way reminds me of The 10 Minute Freeview- a tantalising glimpse of something enticing and delectable, yet never enough to truly satisfy, but just enough to ensure you'll want another look next week



"WE MAKE A GREAT TEAM. A GROIN-GRABBINGLY GREAT TEAM"

Weekend Betting, 14th September

ALLOW ME TO BEG YOUR INDULGENCE!

This weekend is one of my favourites of the football season from a betting perspective- Scottish Cup 2nd Round time. I shall explain.

This is one of those rare, rare weekends where the punter genuinely has advantage to exploit over the bookmaker. The bookmakers may not admit it, but they're nowhere near as clued up on the relative strengths of the non-league sides in Scotland as those who regularly follow football at that level.

There are a few bankers to be had- Brora Rangers, Wick Academy, Edinburgh City, Inverurie Loco Works, Auchinleck Talbot, Turriff United, Fraserburgh and Spartans should all come through their ties with something to spare. As a general rule, expect most of the Highland League teams to progress in their ties with non-Highlands teams. Compared to the rest of the non-league scene in Scotland, the Highland League is very strong at the moment. A number of clubs, notably Brora, Nairn County & Formartine all have wealthy backers as they chase the play-off place at the end of next season which could earn them a place in the senior structure.

Nairn County represent the standout bet of the cup ties. Competition sponsors William Hill offer 19/5 on them winning at Linlithgow Rose, which is extremely generous considering the strength of Nairn's squad (including Daniel Moore & Stuart Leslie, 2 of the standout players at 3rd Division Elgin City last season, and former Ross County U20 captain Archie Mcphee) and their track record for raising their game in the cup competitions (just ask Clyde and Arbroath). Huntly also represent good value at Evens (again with Hills) at home to Preston Athletic

Of course, it's not just the Scottish Cup going on this weekend. There's plenty of fun to be had elsewhere, notably at Villa Park, where Aston Villa can continue their upward trend with another enterprising, vibrant display at home to a Newcastle side who were poor on their travels last season and, Coloccini and Santon aside, have a defence that still does not fully convince. Paddy Power will give you 6/5 on the home win. Going back up to Scotland for a moment, a viable case can be made for an away win in all 6 matches in the SPL- it would be no surprise to see at least 3 or 4 of Celtic, Aberdeen, ICT, Motherwell, Hibs and Dundee United claim 3 points this weekend.

And finally, just a wee reminder. If you're lucky enough to be a player with any Scottish team, then you're more than welcome to read this blog. Just don't actually place any bets based on what you read on here, eh?

Graeme's Silly Bet is Back!

It's England v Scotland at Wembley on Wednesday- with that in mind, yours truly decided to resurrect an old feature on here for a match that we shall be attending. If you're in 1st Class on the 10am Edinburgh to London train tomorrow, say hello.

Shifty, in a state of post Ross County match drunkenness fame asked me to rekindle an old weekly post I did for him called "Graeme's Silly Bet" due to our impending visit to London for the upcoming Scotland vs England friendly to celebrate the 150th anniversary of the FA.

 

With the current run of my weekend football coupons it could be argued that all of my bets could be regarded as not just silly but financially damaging. I haven't won anything substantial in months. In fact I have never really won anything substantial.

 

So, for the match on Wednesday, and bear in mind that I haven't even researched the squads despite the SFA emailing me it all the time. My hot silly tip is going to be Scotland to win 1-0 with Kenny Miller scoring the winner after coming off the bench on the 81st minute for a farewell run out.

 

The bet: 1-0 Scotland, Kenny Miller 1st Scorer at 125/1 with Paddy Power

 

We'll be coming..

SPFL Fantasy Football Preview (Hopefully all in 1 part)

It's that time of year again, where we all sign up for various fantasy football leagues. We run our own one for the SPFL (I think that's what it's called now), so here's a preview of what to expect from the (newly expanded, in the spirit of league reconstruction) league this season.

This writer spoke to a number of the competitors in this season's league- here's a tastefully edited version of their thoughts:

Duguid:

Scotty Duguid has been an astute competitor in SPL fantasy football for a few years now. Here's what he had to say about this season's contest:
"I think the expansion of the league will make this year harder than Rory in the Ross County changing rooms. Hoping some of the unknown skills of the newbies will knock Brucey off his perch (and cause another shoulder injury)". An Aberdeen fan, he optimistically hopes for a top 4 finish for Derek Mcinnes' side, but has already warned off other teams eyeing up the Dons' more traditional 9th place.

Rory:

Another experienced fantasy football competitor who will be hoping for an improvement on last season's mid-table finish. Here are his erudite thoughts for the season ahead:
"I think Scott Duguid will win the league this year. With his erectile dysfunction (are we allowed to say erectile dysfunction?- Ed) problems it's been a while since he found anything hard. With big changes amongst several teams it will be hard to pick players. Hooper going makes it difficult to pick a Celtic top scorer. Motherwell and County have had massive overhauls- picking players from these teams will be difficult. Additionally, picking any player from Hearts' makeshift squad will be tough. However, I suggest you pick them over an Aberdeen player. With a new manager and exciting signings they have expectation thrust upon them once more and are therefore likely to finish near the bottom (please note Duguid cannot be blamed for thrusting this expectation on them as, due to his aforementioned erectile dysfunction issues (we're still running with these, then- Ed) he cannot get a boner and therefore cannot thrust)".

Brucey:

A broken collarbone has hindered Bruce's attempts at selection of his team (and wanking), but the reigning champion is expected to challenge for honours once again. His thoughts ahead of the new campaign:
"I'm hoping for another competitive season. Obviously me and Seaniekins are the big two (that's what she said!- Ed) but many others could challenge if they have the ambition, instead of battling for a bottom 6 place and crying about not getting prize money for it. I'm glad it's a clean, debt free league now that Bryan has paid his dues. All the best for the season, lads".

Pud:

Last season's runner-up, and a previous winner, will be confident of another strong challenge for the title this season. This is what he's got to say for himself:
"I am hoping to have another strong season, although that will be difficult with the number of new teams added to the league in the much needed expansion. I believe myself and Brucey the past winners have the know how to win this league and this might be the deciding factor again. Although with just under 24 hours to go I still can't pick a settled side so I'm not as confident of starting off well. I am glad to see Bryan Shepherd FC has come out of administration, with the help of his new sponsors, Wonga. All the best to all the teams this year and may you guys challenge well but ultimately fail to beat me".

Bryan:

Fucked if I know. Bryan will be doing well to avoid the wooden spoon. Across his arse. Actually, he might like that

Me:

Well, I'd better share my thoughts with y'all, then. I've not had the best of times in this league, but all that will (maybe) change this year. I'm expecting surprises in the SPFL this season, particularly from Partick Thistle. Expect to see high-scoring games involving a number of sides, mostly because some sides (I'm looking at you, Hibs & St Mirren) have defences that look utterly dreadful on paper, while some sides (particularly Dundee United) look irresistible going forward (no David Goodwillie jokes- Ed). All the best  to all involved, especially the new lads, who I'm sure will be a welcome addition to the league.

Honourable mentions, too, to G-Ham, Dave, and the new lads such as Burns & Jamie. Let's have a good season, chaps

BELIEVE IN THE SHIELD!

Not Quite the Return You Might Have Expected

I'm back, folks!

This evening's entry, as the title suggests, won't quite be the usual football betting predictions you've become used to from me. Instead, I'm going to be writing about an altogether more controversial issue- the attempts by David Cameron to crack down on access to pornography.

Personally, I am strongly opposed to any attempts by any government to censor any part of the internet, no matter how abhorrent it may be. The internet is the ultimate free market, where ideas, thoughts and information sources that are popular thrive, and those which are less desirable & popular eventually die (Hiya Myspace! Hey there Bebo! You still there Napster?). If nobody wants to view pornography, it'll die out. Expect to hear words like "abhorrent" and "vulgar" used by Cameron to describe the sort of material he wants to see banned. That's all well and good, David, and I'm not denying that there's material out there that could be described in such a way, but these are subjective terms- one person's definition of abhorrent and vulgar material is going to be different from another's. I'm listening to some particularly heavy rock music while writing this which some people might consider abhorrent or vulgar, yet I find it perfectly acceptable, and it's perfectly legal. I find it abhorrent and vulgar to have a paid lobbyist for the tobacco industry, Lynton Crosby, advising the government on tobacco policy, yet David Cameron finds this perfectly acceptable.

It's not the job of the government to censor the internet for us- we do that for ourselves. We read the news sites we want to see and about the subjects that interest us. We watch the videos to see and listen to the podcasts we want to hear. The stuff that doesn't interest us, we just ignore, which is what the vast majority of us do regarding the small smattering of illegal material (the stuff that we can all agree is abhorrent and vulgar) that we're told is out there. It's the same in our "offline" lives- yes, there's a liquor shop on the way home, a drug dealer on that street corner, a "sauna" 2 streets away, but we exhibit self-discipline and judgement over whether or not to consume these things. We don't need the government putting filters on in order to achieve that same self-censorship when online.

Questions also need to be asked of the filters themselves. For one, the technology that Cameron speaks of already exists; it just needs to be activated by the end user- it isn't even that hard to do, even for those not so technically literate. There are, however, 2 main problems with these filters. Firstly, they're not perfect- many perfectly legitimate, legal websites are currently blocked out by them. This is mainly a technical issue with the way the filters are set up: in layman's terms, when you build a website, you put things called "Metatags" on the pages, so that filters and search engines can see what is on them, so that when the end user searches for the Meta term, the website is picked up and returned as a possible result. Some writers (and I include myself in this) may lack the time or knowledge when composing their (perfectly legal) sites to put these in, so if the filter does not see any Metatags it recognises as being legitimate, it defaults to blocking the site, something I have personal experience with thanks to a period of previous employment with an ISP. Secondly, in a world where many children are more computer literate than their parents, there's a risk that these filters will be disabled as soon as the parents' back is turned- hardly convenient for a policy that's clearly being designed/cobbled together with the protection of children in mind.

Of course those who peddle anything illegal should be punished. But let's not restrict the freedoms of the internet for the rest of us just to drive out a small minority

Weekend Betting 27th-28th April

Yoo-hoo! Me again! With the end of the season approaching, I suppose I'd better furnish y'all with some tips:

• Manchester City at home to West Ham does look a home banker, and indeed it really should be. West Ham have now cleared the magical 40 point mark which usually guarantees safety from relegation (and should again be the case this season), plus their 3-4-10 away record this season means there's little reason to fancy them to take anything from this one- indeed, city are potent enough going forward at home (averaging 2.25 goals at home in the league this season) to cover a handicap. Take city -1 goal at 5/6 with Skybet
• Having made a prediction for the 12:45 kickoff- I'd better get a move on with the rest of these tips. Elsewhere in the Premier League, Everton (10-6-1 at home) should polish off an on-the-beach-and-safe Fulham- Hills will give you 8/15 on the Toffees
• It's the last day of the season in League 1 today, a league that I personally have hade plenty of success betting on. It's only fair, then, that I share with y'all my tip for today from that league. Bournemouth and Tranmere have gone in opposite directions in the 2nd half of the season- while Tranmere have fallen from title chasers all the way down to their current 11th (their last 16 games: W3, D1, L12), Bournemouth under Eddie Howe have stormed up the league, winning 13 of their last 18. Another win for Bournemouth (who have won their last 8, while Tranmere have lost their last 5) will see the Cherries take the League 1 title. Get on them at the generally available 4/5
• Delving a little deeper into the leagues, there's a couple of teams to be fancied in the Scottish 3rd Division. Berwick can effectively confirm their play-off place by beating Annan (4/7 with Coral), while Peterhead should continue their recent excellent form, which has helped them up to 2nd place in the league, by beating Clyde at Balmoor (2/5 general)
• More media coverage of the Bundesliga! After the midweek exploits of Bayern & Dortmund, I'm going to be tipping 3rd place Bayer Leverkusen to beat Werder Bremen. Leverkusen are in good form (only the 2 aforementioned Bundesligasuperpowers (in German, that is all 1 word) have beaten them at the BayArena this season), while Bremen are in a horrible mess right now- no win in their last 9, and with 2 key attackers (Marko Arnautovic & Eljero Elia) both suspended by the club having been caught speeding. With their defence is as abysmal as ever (no clean sheets away from home all season), all the signs point to a Leverkusen win (4/9 general), with enough in hand to cover a -1 handicap (Evens with Stan James)

And if your ass ain't down with that, I got 2 words for ya:

SUCK IT!

Weekend Betting, 10th-11th November

Hiya!

Really ought to put some good old-fashioned tips up for this weekend's games, hopefully just in time for y'all to get them on your coupons. Here goes:

Swans Are Solid
Southampton are starting to look out of their depth in the Premier League. They vaguely resemble the Blackpool side which briefly graced the top flight a few years ago- bravely committed to attacking play, but horribly naive defensively- 28 goals conceded in 10 games is a brutal stat. Nigel Adkins seems like an endearingly positive chap, but his days as Saints manager already look numbered- the repeated chopping and changing of goalkeeper (Kelvin Davis, Paulo Gazzaniga and Artur Boruc have all featured between the sticks this season) isn't helping. Swansea, meanwhile, are going along at a respectable nick, giving very good accounts of themselves against man city and Chelsea in their last 2 games, and are great value at 2/1 with 32Red to get the 3 points at St Mary's today

Sir Alex Likes His Claret
In the 5:30pm game today, Manchester United travel to Villa Park, which has traditionally been a happy hunting ground for them- United haven't lost a league game there since 1995, as well as having an excellent record in FA Cup semi finals played at the ground. After a slightly suspect start, United have started to click into gear, as they traditionally do around about October-November. Aston Villa's improvement under Paul Lambert has been...well...there hasn't really been one. With just 2 league wins and 8 league goals scored so far, Villa still don't exactly get one on the edge of one's seat. United to win outright are available at a general 1/2 if you fancy keeping your 3pm coupon waiting, otherwise, with Villa's prosaic attack and United's improving defence, which should see Chris Smalling available again, while David De Gea is now firmly established as 1st choice goalkeeper (we'll maybe see you at Galatasaray, Anders), United to win to Nil at 16/11 with Bwin is well worth considering

The Championship
There's a few tasty morsals to be had in the Championship today. I'd recommend being all over Crystal Palace (12 games unbeaten, Ian Holloway now in charge keeping them motoring) at 13/10 with Coral to win at struggling Peterborough. Also worth backing are Huddersfield at 15/8 with Victor Chandler to win at Barnsley, who have lost their last 3

And the Rest
Have a punt on Swindon to win at Walsall at 23/20 with Coral- Swindon's away record (4-2-2) is actually better than their 3-3-2 home record, while the opposite is true for out-of-form (5 defeats and no wins in their last 7 league games) Walsall. Also appealing are Aberdeen to win at St Mirren at a best price of 7/5 with Ladbrokes (yes, really. Ladbrokes do actually have the best price here). Despite the result last weekend, Aberdeen still dominated much of their 2-1 defeat at Ross County, which ended a 10 match league unbeaten run. St Mirren, meanwhile, have lost their last 4 league games, and go into this game without their suspended captain Jim Goodwin

Happy Christmas, Pilgrims!