Shifty's Last Word

The Return of Graeme's Silly Bet

2012-01-25T19:40:00.002Z

26th March 2010, it has been far too long.
Thought I'd blast out some words to inform you all of the current craze sweeping through my work.
By “craze” I actually mean myself and Scot talking over a pint about how to finally get a bloody coupon up.
Previously the pass at work has looked like this on a Saturday. Usually getting bust by 3pm as I forgot to check the times of the kick-offs before placing the bets hastily while late for work on a Saturday morning.

The idea is, instead of doing a long accumulator with a few dead certs and a couple of more risky and lucrative bets we change our approach and do a continuous accumulator. Start of with a £10, and just do one (odds on if you fell scared) bet a day, constantly increasing your stake.
Set a target out, for me it’s going to be £100. Then, do it all over again. I’ve searched around on the internet for anyone doing this and stumbled across this wee gem of a website. It explains the process far more eloquently and soberly than I can.
http://theaccumulator.co.uk/index.html
So, starting from Tuesday, 24th January. I will adopting this process of gambling. I’ll only ever risk £10 and if it comes of it is a more enjoyable and rewarding system off saving money than doing something stupid and putting your money into an ISA.
Rest assured if this system works I’ll write back and let you know.
In the meantime, here is a terrible but lucrative bet for this midweek.
1) I fancy Motherwell for 3rd spot in the SPL this season. If their stadium doesn’t catch fire I think they will be strong enough to pump Dunfermline.
4/6
2) Leviadiakos are 19/1 to beat Panathinaikos on the 25th. That has to be worth a quid!
3) Andy Carrol, anytime goalscorer against Manchester City on Wednesday night. No, on second thoughts just ignore that one.
Have fun and enjoy losing your money,
All the best and good betting!

Weekend Betting, Saturday 21st January

2012-01-21T11:26:00.002Z

Big weekend of soccer matches coming up (although, to be honest, they're all going to be big now. We're getting towards the part of the season where the football actually gets good), let's have a look at what we can have a punt on:

Newcastle away at Fulham firstly. The Geordies are currently shorn of 2 key men in Cheik Tiote and Demba Ba, along with new number 9 Papiss Demba Cisse. However, despite an arguably poor performance they still had more than enough to see of QPR last weekend. Fulham are wildly inconsistent this season, and were extremely poor last time out away at Blackburn. An improvement at home will be hoped for, but Newcastle are well worth backing, with 3/1 generally available

Stoke at home to West Brom has home win written all over it. West Brom's early-mid season form has tailed off badly, with Woy Hodgson's side winless in the league since early December and facing a Stoke side against whom they have a horrible recent record- 2 draws and 7 defeats for West Brom in their last 9 meetings. With the Europa League put to bed until the middle of next month, Stoke have recovered their league form, and are available at 11/10 to triumph with Hills. Get on that if you know what's good for you

As regular readers will know, I like a bit of trend-spotting. I like to find a reliable bet with good returns and stick it on most weeks. Last season, that was backing Norwich to win most games, which itself replaced Darren Bent 1st goalscorer. This season has yet to produce such a bet, apart from, well..er...Norwich again. The on-form Canaries are available at 5/1 to pull off a win against a slightly unconvincing Chelsea, shorn currently of Didier Drogba. They are not, though, without a goal threat, with Juan Mata adapting well to English football. He's 2/1 to score anytime today against a Norwich defence that has ye to keep a clean sheet this season

Outside the Premier League, there are a plethora of teams at backable odds today, among them Barnsley, Birmingham, Bournemouth and Carlisle

Tuck in

Weekend Betting, Saturday 7th January

2012-01-05T20:38:00.002Z

Into 2012 we go, and it's FA Cup 3rd Round (and Scottish Cup 4th Round) weekend. Plenty of opportunities for shocks, they tell us. Plenty of opportunity for betting, I tell you. Here are some pointers:

There's a growing trend towards making wholesale changes for the FA Cup, particularly among the Premier League clubs (nobody in the SPL has a big enough squad to make wholesale changes and still field a strong line-up). With that in mind, it's worthwhile waiting to see teamsheets before backing or opposing certain teams. 2 fixtures that immediately come to mind regarding this are Barnsley v Swansea and Norwich v Burnley. In both matches, if both teams were at full-strength, then Swansea (6/4) and Norwich (18/19) should both prevail fairly comfortably, but both sides are likely to prioritise their Premier League campaigns, and could send out much-changed sides, giving an opportunity to the Championship clubs

In-form lower league club at home to out-of-form Premier League club? Those sound like the conditions required for a cup shock. 2 prime examples of where these conditions apply are at MK Dons (7/4) and Swindon (21/10), who host misfiring QPR and Wigan respectively. Those prices will become even more appealing should the visiting sides make changes, as highlighted above. Cardiff (4/1) are also well worth a punt when they travel to West Brom

There are some ties, though, that should surely merit comfortable wins for the favourites, and could therefore form part of a reasonably safe accumulator, namely Everton, Fulham, Sheffield United and Tottenham

In the Scottish Cup, a similar coupon can be put together: back Hearts, Motherwell, Partick and St Johnstone to get the job done on Saturday. Shock-wise, if you're feeling really adventurous, then have a wee look at Arbroath v Rangers. Arbroath are going well in the 2nd Division and are unbeaten at home this season- Rangers travel to Gayfield without a number of key players, and with uncertainty surrounding the future of striker Nikica Jelavic, their attacking edge has been blunted of late. The draw is available at 13/2

FIFPRO World XI Shortlist

2011-12-02T21:39:00.002Z

Evening folks.

So, that FIFPRO World XI Shortlist, eh? This writer is of the opinion that it's an absolute joke. There are some players on the list who simply should not be there for 2011, while there are some glaring omissions. So many glaring omissions, in fact, that I reckon you could put together a pretty decent team out of them. Here goes:

GK: David De Gea (Man Utd, Spain U21)
RB: Maxi Pereira (Benfica, Uruguay)
CB: Mats Hummels (Borussia Dortmund, Germany)
CB: Adil Rami (Valencia, France)
LB: Fabio Coentrao (Real Madrid, Portugal)
DM: Diego Perez (Bologna, Uruguay)
CM: Toni Kroos (Bayern Munchen, Germany)
AMR: Mario Gotze (Borussia Dortmund, Germany)
AML: Ezequiel Lavezzi (Napoli, Argentina)
AMC: Marek Hamsik (Napoli, Slovakia)
ST: Gonzalo Higuain (Real Madrid, Argentina)

Pretty strong, eh? Additionally, this line-up, unlike most of these "fantasy teams" would actually work as a team. The addition of Diego Perez as the midfield destroyer would offer freedom to both full-backs, who are extremely adventurous, to roam forward. The attacking wide players, Gotze and Lavezzi, are interchangeable, and swapping them would add even more creativity to a talented attacking central midfield (where Kroos and Hamsik are also interchangeable, offering different styles of support to Higuain), and also create even more space in attacking wide positions for Maxi and Coentrao. There's a pretty handy collection of subs available, too:

GK: Justo Villar (Valladolid and Paraguay)
DFs: Diego Lugano (Paris S-G and Uruguay), Alvaro Pereira (Porto and Uruguay)
MFs: Nuri Sahin (Real Madrid and Turkey), Luka Modric (Tottenham and Croatia), Javier Mascherano (Barcelona, Argentina), Arturo Vidal (Juventus, Chile)
STs: Alexis Sanchez (Barcelona, Chile), Antonio Di Natale (Udinese, Italy), Pedro (Barcelona, Spain)

F1 2012 Driver Market Part 2

2011-11-23T19:31:00.002Z

As it says on the tin:

Williams
Nothing yet confirmed here, however the most likely partnership seems to be Pastor Maldonado alongside F1 returnee, 2007 world champion Kimi Raikkonen, with current team leader Rubens Barrichello sent on his way to retirement, or possibly a temporary gig at Lotus until Robert Kubica is fit. Now this writer is no fan of Maldonado- despite being statistically the worst Williams driver ever (and in this case, the stats do not lie), he will almost certainly retain his seat at Barrichello's expense, primarily due to the sponsorship deal he brings to the team from PDVSA, the Venezuelan state oil company, said to be worth somewhere in the region of £25 million per year. That deal, though, is reportedly under scrutiny- should the plug be pulled, that will almost certainly be the end of Maldonado's less-than-impressive F1 career, certainly with Williams, which could lead to Barrichello being retained, or perhaps a seat for likely Force India refugee Adrian Sutil

Toro Rosso
The smart money (and, in this writer's opinion, the smart thing to do) is on the retention of Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguersuari. However, both Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne of the Red Bull young driver stable are pushing very hard for a race seat- 1 of the 2 is likely to get at least some Friday morning mileage with the team, with a mid-season promotion a strong possibility should Buemi or Alguersuari fail to deliver

Marussia (nee Virgin)
Another name-changer. Timo Glock has a contract for 2012 and will be retained unless offered a drive from a much bigger team, which seems highly unlikely. Alongside him looks likely to be GP2 graduate Charles Pic, with Jerome D'Ambrosio likely to find himself gaining occasional employment as Lotus reserve driver- he's not thought to be a serious contender for a race seat. Canadian Robert Wickens could yet claim a race seat, but is more likely to find himself as 3rd driver, doing the odd Friday run

HRT
Pedro de la Rosa is confirmed as 1 of their drivers. The 2nd seat is likely to be decided by the size of the driver's budget. De la Rosa's compadre, GP2 graduate Dani Clos, is likely to be a contender having tested for the team during the Abu Dhabi young driver test. The addition of de la Rosa is a smart one, providing technical direction and a solid benchmark should a top team wish to evaluate a young driver, such as Red Bull did with Daniel Ricciardo

F1 2012. Who's driving where?

2011-11-21T20:58:00.003Z

And now for something slightly different....

The driver market for F1 2012 is starting to take shape, however, as I'm about to show, there's still much to be decided:

Top 4 teams
All done and dusted. Mclaren (Button and Hamilton), Red Bull (Vettel and Webber), Ferrari (Alonso and Massa) and Mercedes (Schumacher and Rosberg) are all staying put, at least for the start of 2012. More on that later

Lotus (nee Renault)
This is something of a basket case. Of the current incumbents, Vitaly Petrov has a contract for 2012 and brings in excess of £10 million in funding, but last week's rant on Russian TV at the team must raise questions about his future at Enstone. While he has subsequently apologised, one key quote stood out from the email: "I have one last opportunity to try and make you proud in Brazil". Alongside him since Belgium has been Bruno Senna, who has made a solid if unspectacular impression. A race seat for next season for him is probably dependent on him finding more financial backing. Romain Grosjean is set to take Petrov's car for FP1 in Brazil on Friday, and is widely thought to be a strong contender for a race seat, with him now being stronger and more mature than in his brief stint with the team in 2009. There is also the matter of Robert Kubica- while he has no contract for 2012 with the team, boss Eric Boullier has spoken of the moral obligation he feels to Kubica- if he's race fit for winter testing, one has to believe there's a cockpit waiting for him- if he wants it. More on that later. Externally, another opetion could be Adrian Sutil if he is not retained by Force India, however they are set to be priced out of a move for Kimi Raikkonen. Boullier has already stated his intenton to have 2 top class drivers in the car for 2013.

Force India
Much more straightforward- 2 from Adrian Sutil, Paul Di Resta and test driver Nico Hulkenberg. Paddock consensus seems to be moving towards a Di Resta-Hulkenberg pairing, with Sutil set to go and knock on the doors of Lotus and Williams for a drive

Sauber
Even more straightforward. Current incumbents Kamui Kobayashi and Sergio Perez are both retained

Caterham (nee Lotus)
Again, nice and simple. Current incumbents Heikki Kovalainen and Jarno Trulli are retained

Part 2, featuring the remaining teams and Robert Kubica, to follow later this week, but before Brazil

Partick Thistle v Ross County- Michael Fraser's Distribution

2011-11-06T19:13:00.002Z

Evening. (insert excuse for lack of activity on this blog here)

Yesterday, I decided to study County keeper Michael Fraser's distribution, and also to have a look specifically at County's shooting. I'll return to the shooting later, but firstly Fraser's distribution.The basic results are that, of the 24 times Fraser played the ball, he managed to find a team-mate just 5 times (I intend to have the graphic showing this online tomorrow). This gives Fraser a pass completion figure of just 20.83%. It's probably slightly unfair to level that exclusively as a criticism of Fraser, and it should also be noted that he kept a clean sheet and dealt competently with then somewhat stifled Partick Thistle threat, most notably a flying save late on to deny David Rowson what would have been a rather ill-deserved equaliser for Thistle.

It should be noted that Fraser's cause wasn't helped by the fact that many of his goal kicks and passes were directed at Michael Gardyne who, for all his technical ability, is always going to struggle to compete aerially. Compare and contrast this with the game away to Dundee 3 weeks ago, where the more physically imposing Sam Morrow was in the team instead, and able to retain the ball far more often.

The nature of Fraser's distribution is also worthy of comment. Apart from 6 occasions where he had to leave his goal, either in anticipation of forthcoming danger or to take a free-kick, all his kicks were straight down the middle, aiming for 1 of the 2 frontmen. It seems County this season are not for building from the back, or at least not involving Fraser- there were, interestingly, a couple of excellent transitions from defence to offence ending in shots on goal which completely bypassed Fraser. While it sounds churlish to be finding fault with a team unbeaten in 10 league games and top of the league, should County be denied the services of both Morrow and Colin McMenamin, they are going to have real issues with ball retention in the attacking 3rd of the park. But we'll worry about that another day

Thoughts from today's games

2011-09-10T22:32:00.002+01:00

Something of a Super Saturday today in the Premie League (no offence, but Norwich v West Brom and Fulham v Blackburn a Super Sunday does not make), here are my thoughts for your digestion:

The biggest surprise at the Britannia Stadium today is that people were surprised by the result. Stoke have always been exceptionally difficult to beat at home, and their deadline day additions have enhanced them even more. Liverpool's start may have looked encouraging, but if you dig a bit deeper the truth is rather different- they only gained control during their 2-0 win at Arsenal once Arsenal DM Frimpong had been dismissed and the Bolton side they dispatched have been exposed as severely wanting by both Manchester clubs. In summary, they are a long way from any sort of title challenge- fourth place is probably the extent of their realistic ambitions. Of Stoke, should they cope with this season's Europa League allied to their league campaign, then an entry to next season's competition is not beyond them

The Myth of Bolton Under Owen Coyle: they are no more aesthetically pleasing and no less thuggish than they were under both Megson and Allardyce. The only advantages Coyle has on Megson are that his teams do at least play with 2 wingers and 2 out-and-out strikers, and that he is more media-savvy. 8 defeats in their last 9 as well- the end-of-season slump from last season has not been arrested

FAO Kevin Davies: I hope you're proud of yourself for your assault on Tom Cleverley today. Despite the injury, Cleverley has achieved more in the last 6 weeks than you've done in your entire career. You and your mate Paul Robinson should have been off before the 20th minute today. And what happened to you roughing up De Gea?

It would be a surprise if both Phil Jones and Chris Smalling do not make the England squad for Euro 2012. One of the 2 should make the right-back berth their own, and after another shambolic showing today, there must be question marks about Gary Cahill's ability at the highest level, as highlighted by this blog recently

I'm Still Here!

2011-08-21T14:45:00.002+01:00

Ahoy sailors! Thought I'd better post an article-type on this here blog of mine (it's been a while and all that) about the soccer, eh? So here are some musings from yesterday's action:

Car Crash FC (aka Arsenal) had a bit of a disaster yesterday, and the injury to Laurent Koscielny has heightened calls for Arsene Wenger to sign another central defender. Among the names suggested has been Gary Cahill, however there must be doubts about Cahill's ability to fit into Arsenal's playing style, however good he may be aerially. The clearest example of this would be Cahill's pass completion stats from Bolton's 4-0 opening day win at QPR, in which Cahill succesfully completed only 28 of 39 passes (71.79%), which pales into comparison Koscielny's stats from Arsenal's 0-0 draw at Newcastle of 50 of 59 (84.75%) succesfully completed passes

2 more players linked with Car Crash FC have been Phil Jagielka of Everton and Scott Dann of Birmingham. Looking at the same stats for these 2 players, Jagielka didn't exactly cover himself in glory, losing possession in the build-up to QPR's goal, and completing only 74.45% of his passes successfully, with Dann faring only slightly better in Birmingham's 1-1 draw at home to Spurs last season (77.14%). Arsene Wenger's hunt for a ball-playing centre-back is likely to lead him overseas

Sunderland's Simon Mignolet didn't impress in their 1-0 defeat at home to Newcastle- his positioning for Ryan Taylor's goal was terrible, so much so that it would have been rude of Taylor not to put the ball in the far corner (the goal he conceded at Liverpool last weekend was from a similar position on the other side). Mignolet's distribution was poor as well, with less than half of his passes finding a team-mate. It's therefore difficult to see why Mignolet is in Steve Bruce's team ahead of the far superior Craig Gordon

I quite like the Guardian chalkboards

Also, y'all may have noticed the absence of a full-blown season preview. This is mainly due to the fact that I've been superuberdeuberdeduper busy, but also because of the situation where the season starts before the close of the transfer window. Therefore, were I to write at the beginning of August, for example, that Stoke City needed a new striker, Tony Pulis could then read this and go out and sign the required frontman

Why I'm Loving the Copa America

2011-07-14T21:01:00.002+01:00

As the title suggests, here's a quick irreverent rundown of why I'm enjoying the tournament so far:

There's quality players I'm discovering that even I hadn't heard of. For instance, Estigarribia of Paraguay, whose reward for dismantling Dani Alves (yes, that Dani Alves) against Brazil was to get Dani Alves dropped. Unfortunately for Estigarribia, the bizarre tournament format means he now will most likely have to face the much more defensively-sound (well, unless your name is Gareth Bale) Maicon in the quarter-finals. Also impressing was Venezuela's pirate-like centre-back Vizcarrondo, about whom Alexandre Pato is still probably having nightmares

There's an underlying feeling that this is a football tournament for proper football geeks like yours truly. ESPN's excellent, unflashy coverage, the late kick-off times, the regular tweets and Guardian columns of football tactics God Jonathan Wilson, this is a tournament for those who know their football

Following on from that point, the variety of different tactics and formations (far, far more than in any European tournament) have really added to the Copa. This writer will resist from going into too much depth in this post, but the contrast between, say, Argentina's 4-3-3, Chile (more on them later) and their 3-3-1-3/3-4-1-2, Brazil's 4-2-3-1 and Uruguay's 4-4-2 is fascinating

Chile. I adore them. The breathtaking all-out attack style favoured at the World Cup by Marcelo Bielsa has been continued by his successor, Claudio Borghi. Borghi has at times favoured adding another central midfielder at the expense of one of the front 3, but even that has helped release playmaker Jorge Valdivia, who excelled in the space between Uruguay's back 4 and midfield. And then there's Alexis Sanchez. Wonderful, wonderful player-unlike many of the other star names at the tournament, he's actually lived up to his headline billing, embodying the spirit of his team beautifully with his pace, trickery and technique. Should he, as expected, join Barcelona after the Copa, the rest of Europe might as well give up

Shifty's End of the Season Awards Sponsored By Sea Salt and Balsamic Vinegar Kettle Chips

2011-06-22T19:39:00.003+01:00

Right, it's that time of the year again (how many of my posts start like that, by the way?), awards time!

MANAGER OF THE YEAR

Plenty of candidates for this one. Headline candidates include Sir Alex Ferguson for knocking the scouse c***s (there's 2 sweary words that could be) off their perch, Pep Guardiola for another masterful campaign with Barcelona and Andre Villas Boas (Porto's Liga Sagres record this season: P30 W27 D3 L0 under the 33, yes 33, year-old), and all 3 were considered for this award. Also considered were some less well-known candidates: Jurgen Klopp steered a dazzling young Borussia Dortmund side to a deserved Bundesliga title, Luis Garcia worked miracles on a shoestring budget and with an ageing backline at Levante, fostering a fantastic team spirit as they comfortably avoided relegation from La Liga, while Barry Smith at Dundee responded to a 25 point deduction with a 23 game unbeaten run with a team shorn of its best players due to financial meltdown featuring kids, trialists, has-beens and never-will-bes. Now, I'd be at risk of opening myself up to accusations of bias if the award goes to Klopp or Ferguson, so I'll give it to Villas Boas for not just his record with Porto this season (their dismantling of Villarreal, whose own boss Juan Carlos Garrido nearly made the shortlist, was as remarkable as it was spectacularly impressive), but for getting me annoyed in that he was 6 years ahead of me in starting his coaching badges, and for the fact there's no chance he's getting this award next season

GAME OF THE SEASON

Easy one this. Back in February, runaway leaders of the Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund, travelled to Bayern Munchen, knowing that a win could effectively seal their title, while a defeat could let Bayern back in. What followed was a fantastic match, played at a crazily high tempo, but with the highest quality of technique, particularly from Dortmund, who took an early lead through Lucas Barrios, who outpaced Holger Badstuber to finish expertly. Bayern equalised soon after through a Luiz Gustavo header, but Dortmund retook the lead midway through the 1st half, their high intensity pressing game saw Badstuber dispossed inside his own half, with the ball finding its way to Nuri Sahin 22 yards out, who curled a beautifully-placed shot into the net. The hapless Badstuber was hauled off at half-time as Bayern piled pressure on Dortmund, with debutant goalkeeper Mitchell Langerak called upon may times. He didn't let his team down, though, and midway through the 2nd half Mats Hummels powered in a header from a corner to give Dortmund a 3-1 lead which proved unassailable, as they contained the Bayern threat until full-time, with Sahin and Sven Bender dominating the midfield, leaving Bastian Schweinsteiger floundering

More awards to follow. Probably Friday

Sheep's Stag Do Betting Review

2011-05-11T19:14:00.003+01:00

Well, what a weekend that was. And now that the bruises have healed, the superinjunctions have (for legal reasons, I cannot complete that sentence), the flirtatious texts to the Varsity big screen have been sent and Shifty's kart has been fixed, we can now look back at the betting tips for the weekend

First to be strip-searched at the airport
While there was no actual strip-searching taking place, Shifty's unfortunate decision to wear a pair of jeans with a busted top button left him, without his belt, in a horribly precarious situation going through security on Sunday
Winner: Shifty @ 7/4

Anyone to miss a flight
No- just. The Stag himself, Sheep, made the outbound flight with just moments to spare

To win the poker
As expected, G-Ham triumphed here, with Pud claiming 2nd prize and each-way honours. Sheep's lack of poker experience saw him end up with the wooden spoon
Winner: G-Ham @ 9/2
Runner-up: Pud @ 7/2

First to check in with the other half
Winner: Sheep @ 5/6

First to crack on to Hooters waitress
There was only going to be one winner here, and Duguid lived up to his billing as favourite, inquiring as to whether the attractive brunette serving us would like to join us in post-meal revellery. It is not clear if Duguid has ever NOT attempted to pull a waitress serving him
Winner: Duguid @ 5/4

When will the first Jagerbombs be had?
They were very nearly had on Saturday afternoon at the hotel bar, however the bar, clearly not stocked for 7 ravenous young souls, was not stocked with Jager, and so the Jagerbombs were delayed until the evening
Winner: Saturday evening @ 2/1

Any "unfortunate" incidents involving Sheep
Winner: Yes @ 11/10. Let's leave it at that, there were "unfortunate" incidents involving Sheep

First to be kicked out of the strip club
Astonishingly, no-one!

To spend most money in the strip club
Let's just say this was a keenly-fought contest

Anyone for a roast?
Unfortunately not. You can bet your house that, had there been one, Shifty would have been involved

To have the biggest Premier Inn breakfast
Sheep's mammoth effort on Saturday morning sees him claim this one. Honourable mention for Shifty's efforts on both Saturday and Sunday sees him claim each-way honours

Winner: Sheep @ 9/2
Runner-up: Shifty @ 6/4

To win the karting
A closely-fought contest between Sheep and Duguid was decided when Duguid, remembering that he should let the stag win, crashed. For such nobility, he has earned each-way honours. Shifty ended up with 3 wheels on his wagon, and retired due to chronic understeer

Winner: Sheep @ 5/2
Runner-up: Duguid @ 2/1

First to spew
To everyone's credit, there was no spewing action in Cardiff, Pud's late entry back in Aberdeen notwithstanding. This "award" is actually going to be shared on each-way terms of 1/2 for 1st and 2nd between Pud and G-Ham, for sporting the most impressive bruises after karting

Winners: G-Ham @ 6/1, Pud @ 4/1

So how did everyone do?
Let's see who managed to pick up a few wins, and who would have made any speculative, Brush-like punters a few bob. All 7 took part in 7 events, apart from Doug who did not kart. All returns are based on a 1 unit stake in each market

Sheep: 3 wins @ 5/6, 9/2 and 5/2
Total return 10.8333 units

Duguid: 2 wins @ 5/4 and 2/1
Total return 5.25 units

Shifty: 2 wins @ 7/4 and 6/4
Total return: 5.25 units

Pud: 2 wins @ 7/2 and 4/1
Total return: 9.5 units

G-Ham: 2 wins @ 9/2 and 6/1
Total return: 12.5 units

Sheep's Stag Weekend Part 3

2011-05-02T19:33:00.002+01:00

By popular demand, here's Part 3 of the betting preview of Sheep's Stag Weekend

First to be strip-searched at the airport
Shifty 7/4, Doug 3/1, Sheep 7/2, Duguid 5/1, G-Ham 6/1, Rory 8/1, Pud 10/1

Given that the CIA have been monitoring his movements for a number of years, Shifty has to be favourite in this somewhat abstract market. Doug could be a contender here too

Anyone to miss a flight or train (there or back)
Yes 2/1
No 4/9

To win the poker
G-Ham 9/2, Doug 5/1, Pud 13/2, Shifty 7/1, Sheep 8/1, Duguid 10/1, Rory 12/1

G-Ham has been successful on the gambling front before, and is just favourite. Doug is a mean poker player, while Pud and Shifty could also be in contention

First to check in with their other half
Sheep 5/6, Rory evens

Almost too close too call is this one

First to crack on to Hooters waitress
Duguid 5/4, Shifty 4/1, Sheep 6/1, Pud 6/1, G-Ham 8/1, Doug 8/1, Rory 8/1

Duguid has to be the market leader here. It just remains to be seen if the chat-up attempt will be delivered to the unlucky lady's face or chest. Shifty's attempt to impress may consist of ordering more than just chips

When will the first Jagerbombs be had?
Friday 12/1
Saturday morning 25/1
Saturday afternoon 7/2
Saturday evening 2/1
Sunday 50/1
None during the weekend 100/1

Any "unfortunate" incidents involving Sheep
Examples would include the stereotypical stag do pranks
Yes 11/10
No 4/6

Weekend Betting, Saturday 30th April

2011-04-29T20:58:00.002+01:00

Well, with all the blogging about next weekend's debauchery going on, I thought I'd better squeeze in (or should that be squeeze out) a look at some of this weekend's games:

There looks like being only 1 winner of Chelsea v Tottenham tomorrow teatime, and it's not Tottenham. Paddy Power will give you 8/15 on the home win, which would see Chelsea continue their recent good form which has seen them overhaul Arsenal in 2nd place. Tottenham can't be fancied, given their recent form- 1 win in their last 8 games in all competitions. Tottenham may also have one of their main attacking threats somewhat subdued- with Benoit Assou-Ekotto injured, Gareth Bale may have to drop back to left-back. Add this to the breaking of Fernando Torres' scoring duck, and the complete lack of form of any of Tottenham's strikers, and Chelsea to Win to Nil holds some appeal at 9/5 with Unibet

Blackpool v Stoke looks a tough one to call. Stoke appear not to have suffered any sort of hangover from their FA Cup Semi Final dismantling of Bolton, having drawn at Aston Villa and beaten Wolves at home since. Having said that, one can make a case for Blackpool, who won the reverse fixture 2-0 and will create chances against anyone. Therefore, the bet to be on is Both Teams to Score at 8/13 with Stan James, a bet that has a 100% success rate at Bloomfield Road this season

The remainder of the Premier League games on Saturday (and probably Blackpool v Stoke) all look distinctly drawy- this could be an opportunity for a rather speculative punt. Any combination of 4 of those games all to end in draws will generate odds of approximately 95/1. Have a go

EVERYBODY GTF (GET TO FALKIRK) TOMORROW. MON THE STAGGIES!

Shepherd's Stag Weekend, Cardiff: Part 2

2011-04-26T20:47:00.002+01:00

Here, by popular demand, are some more markets to keep an eye on for Shepherd's Stag Weekend in Cardiff:

First to be kicked out of the strip club
Duguid 2/1, Pud 5/2, Sheep 9/2, Shifty 11/2, Rory 7/1, G-Ham 8/1, Doug 9/1

Duguid is again among the frontrunners in this market, set to be dominated by the more excitable members of the group. The possibility of Shifty nodding off, while highly unlikely, cannot be completely ruled out

To spend most money in the strip club
Rory 5/1, Shifty 6/1, Duguid 6/1, Pud 7/1, Sheep 7/1, Doug 8/1, G-Ham 8/1

As the odds suggest, this is set to be a very close-run thing. Any one of the 7 could win this. Shifty has previous here, with Pud and Duguid (again) also set to feature prominently

Anyone for a roast?
Odds on it happening: 3/1
To take part if it does happen: Duguid 6/4. Pud 2/1, Shifty 3/1, G-Ham 4/1, Doug 6/1
Again, Rory and Sheep, being attached, are excluded from this market. Duguid is expected, along with possibly Pud and Shifty, to be pressing for this

To have the biggest Premier Inn breakfast
Shifty 3/1, Doug 7/2, Sheep 9/2, G-Ham 5/1, Pud 7/1, Rory 8/1, Duguid 8/1

Expect Shifty to plough through at least 2 bowls of cereal, some toast and maybe a bit of crumpet, in anticipation of a hearty weekend of debauchery. Doug, G-Ham and Sheep are unlikely to be far behind

Shepherd's Stag Weekend, Cardiff: Friday 6th- Sunday 8th May

2011-04-26T19:44:00.002+01:00

The eagerly-anticipated stag do takes place next weekend, and this writer, being among the travelling party, thought it fitting to open up a few markets on the weekend

To Win the Karting
Shepherd 5/2, Duguid 4/1, Shifty 9/2, Rory 8/1, Pud 8/1, G-Ham 10/1, Doug 12/1

The karting event should be a very close-run thing. Sheep the Stag (which sounds like a classic piece of Northern fucked-up crossbreeding) will be the favourite due to his prowess behind the wheel of a kart, with Scotty Duguid, always quick behind the wheel, set to be close behind. Don't rule out a challenge from the ever-competitive Shifty, either, with the rest close behind

First To Spew
Duguid 3/1, Rory 5/1, Pud 8/1, Shifty 12/1, G-Ham 12/1, Doug 25/1, Sheep 50/1

Duguid and Rory are the 2 favourites in this market- both have previous for this on a night out. At the other end of the market, Doug is a fine specimen of a man, who knows how to hold his drink, while Sheep is unlikely to (willingly) ingest the quantities of alcohol required

To Pull
Duguid 6/4, Shifty 7/2, Pud 4/1, G-Ham 5/1, Doug 8/1
Rory and Sheep are excluded from this market due to their attached status
Expect Duguid and Shifty to be fairly enthusiastic about using their mandatory chat-up lines, and maybe even a few of their own

Blackpool v Chelsea, Monday 7th March

2011-03-07T18:32:00.002Z

My Thoughts
2 sides here whose respective form is going in opposite directions. After a hugely promising start to the season, Blackpool's form has nosedived somewhat, with Ian Holloway's side bottom of the 6-match form table, and now just 2 points above the relegation zone. Chelsea, on the other hand, are getting back to their best form. Once Fernando Torres is fully integrated into their side, there may be even more to come from them

The Verdict
All the stats here point to an away win, and one by a considerable margin at that. Blackpool are further handicapped by the absence through suspension of both Charlie Adam and DJ Campbell. That said, they will still fancy their chances of scoring against a Chelsea defence which fares considerably worse away from home than at home- they have managed clean sheets in 62% of their league home games, but just 29% away from home, and with their gung-ho, all-out attack style, even without the aforementioned 2 key players, Blackpool should still create chances. That said, Blackpool's defensive record is little short of woeful- they have yet to keep a clean sheet at home this season, shipping 24 goals at Bloomfield Road so far (an average of 1.84 per game)- it's therefore nigh-on impossible to see at least one of Chelsea's frontline consisting of 2 from Torres, Anelka, Drogba and Kalou not hitting the net. It looks like goals could be plentiful, but Chelsea should come out on top. Away win

The Bet
With Chelsea a best price of just 1/3 with Paddy Power to win outright, best to look elsewhere for value. If Chelsea manage an early goal, then they should go on to win convincingly, therefore 2 bets to be looking at would be Half Time/ Full Time Chelsea/Chelsea available at a general 4/5, along with Chelsea on the handicap- Chelsea -1 available at 4/5 with Blue Square. A more speculative punt would be on the correct score- 3-1 Chelsea at 12/1 with Coral and 4-1 Chelsea at 17/1 with Unibet

Weekend Betting, Saturday 26th February

2011-02-26T12:17:00.002Z

Howdy folks. Here are a few tips for the weekend for you to either:
a) spend what little is left of your last pay cheque on
b) start spending your new pay cheque on

'Tis the Carling Cup Final on Sunday. Arsenal are overwhelming favourites to win the trophy, although a defence as stodgy as Birmingham's could frustrate them for some time if Arsenal don't score early, therefore I'm thinking about avoiding Betfred's 4/7 on Arsenal to win in 90 minutes. I'm more tempted to place a sizeable sum on Arsenal Draw No Bet at 2/9 with Bwin, or the 3/10 on Arsenal to win the trophy at 3/10 with Skybet
A league I know a fair bit about, having followed Ross County through its good, bad and mostly ugly travails, is the Scottish 1st Division, and there are a few interesting bets to be had today. One of the oldest footballing cliches is that the league table never lies. However, it does in the 1st Division this season, thanks to Dundee's 25 point deduction. Without it, they would be 6 points clear at the top of the league, which would be a fair reflection of their status as the best team in the league. They are unbeaten at home in the league this season, and hence are well worth backing at a general 4/7 to beat a Morton side with an away record of 1-4-5. Also worth backing in the 1st division are Falkirk to beat Cowdenbeath at a general 4/11. A more speculative punt in the same division comes at Stark's Park, where the first signs of the widely-expected Raith collapse have appeared, losing 3 of their last 5. John McGlynn's side are without a number of players due to injury for the visit of an improving Stirling Albion. If you're feeling particularly brave, Stirling can be backed to win at a general 15/2, otherwise the Double Chance Draw/Stirling is available at a general 12/5

RIP DEAN RICHARDS

AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur, Tuesday 15th February

2011-02-13T21:09:00.002Z

My Thoughts

This 1st Knockout Round Champions League tie is one of the most difficult to call, and from a tactical standpoint arguably the most intriguing. AC Milan are having an excellent season, with a 4-0 victory over Parma on Saturday keeping them 3 points clear at the head of Serie A, while a 2-1 victory away at Sunderland on Saturday keeps Tottenham well in contention for another top 4 finish. The intriguing aspect of this game is the contrast between the 2 sides' approaches to the game. AC Milan, under summer appointment Massimiliano Allegri, tend to favour a 4-3-1-2 formation. This leaves their midfield quite narrow, with the main creative responsibilities falling to the player in the trequartista role behind the front 2, a role that could be occupied by Clarence Seedorf on Tuesday, with 2 from Robinho, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Alexandre Pato ahead of him. Width is provided by the 2 full-backs, likely to be Massimo Oddo and Luca Antonini, while Robinho and Kevin Prince Boateng can also drift wide from advanced positions- their squad is also vastly experienced. Tottenham have a much younger squad, and, depending on the availability of Rafael van der Vaart, play a straighforward 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1. They place a much greater emphasis on width than AC Milan, with the wingers being supported by offensive full-backs Alan Hutton and Benoit Assou-Ekotto. They can, however, be left short in the centre of midfield on occasion, particularly when playing 4-4-2.

The Verdict
It is clear, therefore, that where one team is weak, the other is strong, and vice versa. For instance, in the wide areas, we are likely to see down the Tottenham left 34-year old Massimo Oddo up against Gareth Bale, with Assou-Ekotto supporting on the overlap, and on the right Aaron Lennon taking on Luca Antonini, who is a natural winger, with Hutton rampaging forward in support. Conversely, AC Milan should regularly outnumber Tottenham in the centre of midfield, even without the injured Andrea Pirlo and Massimo Ambrosini and the ineligible Mark van Bommel (reportedly a Tottenham target in January). This should lead to opportunities for Mathieu Flamini, the veteran Gennaro Gattuso and the youngster Alexander Merkel to start. In attack, AC Milan have a number of options to call upon for their front 3 positions, even with Antonio Cassano ineligible, and should give the Tottenham backline, which has been hit extremely hard by injuries this season, a thorough examining, and should edge this first leg.

The Bet
AC Milan can make the most of home advantage and Tottenham injury worries to win, and are availabe at 4/5 with Boylesports. Tottenham do not do cagey and defensive, so expect goals- Stan James will give you 8/1 on a 2-1 AC Milan victory, with 10/11 generally available on over 2.5 goals

Why Andy Carroll IS Worth £35 Million

2011-01-31T20:04:00.002Z

Sounds mad, doesn't it? But the price tag being bandied about for Carroll can be justified. Here's how.

At 22, Anrew Thomas Carroll still has the majority of his career ahead of him, and has already established himself in the Premier League and with the England national team. Given that his playing style is not overly reliant on pace, which usually a player starts to lose once they reach 30, it's not unreasonable to speculate that he has perhaps 12-15 years of top-flight and international football to look forward to. Given his current level of ability, allied to his future potential, his market value based purely on that is probably somewhere in the region of £15 million.

There are, however, more factors in a transfer fee than just that. Firstly, Carroll's English nationality and junior coaching at Newcastle means he counts as a "home-grown" player, of which each Premier League club must have at least 8 in their 25 man squad, with a similar rule in existence in European competition. Given the dearth of talented English players capable of performing regularly at the highest level, players such as Carroll are much sought-after, thereby increasing their market value- a recent example of this would be the £24 million Aston Villa paid for Darren Bent. Liverpool in particular are short on this type of player.

What also must be considered is the impact Carroll's departure at such a late stage in the transfer window would have on Newcastle. Should the transfer go through, Newcastle would have very little time to source a replacement for Carroll, and given that the prospective fee has been so publicised, this would hinder them in negotiations with other clubs (for example, should Newcastle offer £10 million for a new striker, why should the selling club not push them for more, knowing that Newcastle had £35 million in the bank?), and also leaves them surely too little time to bring in a replacement from overseas. The bracketed argument also applies to Newcastle as the club selling Carroll to Liverpool, with Liverpool's £50 million sale of Fernando Torres set to be completed.

Newcastle would also have to deal with the loss of a player who has scored almost 31% of their league goals this season. Should they fail to sign a striker to replace Carroll (and perhaps even if they do, as the prospective new striker settles in and Newcastle make any adjustment required to their playing style), they would have to deal with the increased possibility of finishing further down the league than their current 9th position, and perhaps even relegation.

And that is why Andy Carroll is worth £35 million

The Flaws in a 10 team SPL, and my vision for a better league, Part 1

2011-01-18T18:23:00.002Z

It has been announced this week that the SPL have provisionally decided on a 10 team SPL, with a 12 team "SPL2" featuring new regulations such as a requirement for a minimum of 3000 seats and undersoil heating at teams' stadia, along with full-time youth players. Over a few parts (I'm thinking 3) I'll explain why I, along with the majority of Scottish football supporters, feel this is the wrong route for Scottish football to go down, and give my vision for an alternative. In this first part, I'll explain why an 18 team SPL is the way forward.

The basic structure I, as self-appointed Head of All of Scottish Football Administration, would consist of an 18 team SPL- each team would play each other twice. The Scottish First Division would consist of 16 teams, again each playing each other twice, with the Scottish Second Division again consisting of 16 teams, each playing each other twice. The Scottish Third Division would cease to continue, with the teams currently residing in it moving up to the new enlarged Second Division. Between the SPL and the First Division, there would be 3 automatic promotion places at the end of the season, with 3 automatic promotion places also available between the First Division and the Second Division. No promotion/relegation play-offs would be entered into, although this, along with the number of places, would be reviewed annually.

In the SPL, each team would play 34 games, with the First and Second Division teams playing 30 games each. This would allow for all 3 leagues to take a proper winter break of 4-6 weeks from roughly the middle of December to the middle of January, during which time climactic conditions usually prohibit the playing of much football anyway. To accommodate this, the 3 leagues would all start late July, then after returning from the winter break playing until early-mid May, with the final SPL fixtures 1 week after the final First and Second Division matches. The reduction in the number of games will lead to a reduction in the requirement for leauge matches to be played midweek, when crowds tend to be lower.

The Scottish Cup would continue in its existing format. However, the SFL Challenge Cup would be discontinued, in order to allow the SFL to focus on improving the strength of the First and Second Divisions, in order to ready their teams for the SPL.

The existing SPL stadium rules of a requirement for undersoil heating and 6000 seats would remain in place in the SPL. There would be no new ground rules for the First and Second Divisions, and teams promoted from the First Division to the SPL would have 6 months from the end of their promotion season to install enough seats to give them 6000, and a further 6 months to install undersoil heating, in order to minimise disruption to the playing surface mid-season.

The structure of an 18 team SPL, 16 team First Division and 16 team Second Division would require a total of 50 teams. There would be no "pyramid" structure below this, as contrary to popular belief, there is a limited level of desire among the Junior and Highland League clubs for it- the last time a place in the existing structure opened up (when Annan Athletic joined the SFL) there were only 5 applicants. That demand could easily be met by the 8 new places that would be available by clubs such as Spartans and Cove Rangers.

Well, that's my blueprint. Part 2 will follow soon

Today's Championship Games, Saturday 15th January

2011-01-15T13:32:00.002Z

Thought I'd do some previews in a slightly different format today, and give y'all my thoughts on a few of today's Championship fixtures, a league I know a bit about (although not Swansea v Crystal Palace- that's already kicked off)

Bristol City v Middlesbrough
Both teams were rather disappointingly dumped out of the FA Cup last weekend by Sheffield Wednesday and Burton Albion respectively. Both sides started the season poorly, leading to managerial changes, but while Bristol City have recovered somewhat (with summer signing Brett Pitman finding his feet and starting to score goals at this level), Middlesbrough have been sluggish of late, and their dreadful 2-2-9 away record makes William Hill's 13/8 on Bristol City to win very appealing

Norwich v Cardiff
This 3rd v 2nd clash could be an absolute humdinger. Norwich have been very impressive under Paul Lambert this season- their squad contains few big household names, but many young players with potential and a point to prove, particularly after their FA Cup exit against Leyton Orient, and a strong holiday period leaves them well-placed for at least a play-off place. Cardiff, on the other hand, do have a smattering of big names and experienced players, but have had a ropey holiday period (last week's FA Cup draw away at Stoke notwithstanding), and have already lost 6 away games in the Championship this season. Snap up the 6/5 on Norwich offered by Boylesports

Nottingham Forest v Portsmuth
Forest have an unbeaten home record that stretches back as far as 30 games- their less impressive away form is the main barrier between them and a play-off place, and their attacking artillery looks set to be further enhanced by USA striker Robbie Findley. Portsmouth's recent form has dipped somewhat, culminating in a 3-1 defeat by Brighton in the FA Cup last time out, but they look like they should survive in the Championship this season, which would arguably be considered a success given their financial worries. Forest should be too strong at home for them, though, with 4/6 generally available on the home win

http://twitter.com/lewisdalgarno

Some Tips and Thoughts for 2011

2011-01-02T16:44:00.003Z

Happy New Year, y'all!

Now, being the generous soul I am, I thought I'd furnish you with a few of my thoughts and tips for 2011. Here goes:

At least 1 Midlands side will be relegated. Currently occupying 20th place are Wolves, and they look most likely to go down, due to their extreme difficulties in scoring and preventing the concession of goals. Last season, their home record kept them up, as their away form was honking. This season, however, their away form has remained honking (4 points from trips to Merseyside are all they have garnered thus far from 10 away games) while their home record of 4-2-4 leaves much to be desired. They are little better than 1/2 across the board to go down. Along with them, another Midlands team with dreadful away form, Birmingham City could well go down, as they too have seen a previously excellent home record disintegrate somewhat- they are 3-5-2 at home thus far. Frankly, Alex Mcleish's side would not be missed, with their defensive, physical approach and their continued deployment of Leeds Council Asian Community Outreach Officer Lee Bowyer. 32RED will give you 11/5 on Birmingham returning to the Championship
Regular readers of this blog will know of my love for all bets based on Darren Bent scoring. His continued good form this season, along with Wayne Rooney's lack of proficiency infront of goal, means that the circa 3/1 currently on offer on Betfair for Bent to be the Top English Goalscorer in the Premier League should be snapped up

The Premier League title is Manchester United's to lose.They have the ability and experience required to make it to the finishing line 1st, even though most of their performances this season have been at best average. The know-how of "Golden Oldies" Giggs, Scholes and van der Sar (Gary Neville might be old, but he certainly hasn't been golden when he's played this season), allied to the match-winning abilities of the likes of Nani (who had a sparkling 2010), Berbatov, Park (the scourge of Arsenal), Rooney (whose goal against West Brom might just see him kick on again) and Hernandez should see United claim a 19th league title. This side isn't up to the standard of Arsenal's 2003/04 unbeaten vintage or the Treble-winning side of 1998/99 (Darron Gibson and Gabriel Obertan, pictured, would never have got near that side), but it's arguably the strongest of the current league. Betfred will give you Evens on the Premier League trophy returning to Old Trafford. He can't understand why you'd bet anywhere else, and with that price, neither can I

Fancy a rummage in the January sales? Me neither. Get your hard-earned cash on those treats

Anyone see that Simpsons episode (around about season 14 I think) where Mr Burns buys up every media outlet in Springfield apart from Lisa's Red Dress Press, where she inspires the residents of Springfield to oppose Burns' empire by starting their own newspapers? Well, I'd like to think of myself as Lisa to Mr Burn's Rupert Murdoch. Check out Graeme's Rant at http://gtm999.blogspot.com
The Guardian is a great newspaper

FAO JAMES DART: I WANT A PLACE IN YOUR 100 FOR 2012

200 Not Out

2010-12-10T18:41:00.005Z

Ladies, gentlemen, boys, girls and the ruler of the planet Omicron Persei 8 (actually, who am I kidding? No girls read this), history today is made, for this will be my 200th post on this here blog! Many thanks to all who have read and contributed since the birth of this blog sometime early last year. This special 200th post will feature a bit of everything that we've tried to encapsulate since we started:

Tottenham might not win the Premier League or the Champions League. But we're certainly having fun watching them try
Harry Redknapp's side's Champions League debut has been most impressive, topping what looked like a tricky group (even moreimpressive after being pillaged by Young Boys for the first 30 minutes of their first qualifier), playing with real attacking gumption, while also maintaining a league position on the shoulder of the leading pack. With their impressive array of attacking options, their games have tended to be particularly entertaining, with their 16 league matches so far featuring an average of 2.8125 goals (regular readers of this blog will know of my belief that the under/over 2.5 goals stat is as good an indicator as any of a side's entertainment value and attacking potency). Even more impressively, their 8 European games so far have seen that average rise to a frankly preposterous 4.75 goals per game. Even their 0-0 draw on the opening day at home to man citeh was entertaining, as their attack peppered Joe Hart's goal with shot after shot. Their clash with Chelsea at White Hart Lane on Sunday is massive for both sides

Manchester United might have finally found replacements for Giggs and Scholes- it's just taken Sunderland and Wigan for them to realise this
The form of Danny Welbeck and Tom Cleverley during their loan spells has been particularly impressive. The technical abilities of the pair have never been in doubt, with the players now gaining invaluable Premier League experience (along with England Under 21 honours) in preparation for, they hope, places in Man Utd's first team next season. Both have also proved to be extremely versatile performers, with Welbeck impressing for Sunderland both upfront and from the left wing, and Cleverley featuring right across Wigan's midfield, capable of both pulling the strings from a central position, and running at full-backs and providing industry from the wings

Now, some tips for this weekend (assuming the games go ahead)

West Brom's form appears to have picked up after a recent slump, and they make the short trip to Villa Park in good spirits having won their last 2 league games, and with Villa seriously out of form themselves, Coral's 11/4 on the Baggies to triumph looks massive. Worth a punt, especially considering this writer priced them up at 9/5
There's much that unites Stoke and Blackpool- fond memories of Stanley Matthews, larger than life characters in charge and defiance of expectations in the Premier League. However, there's much that divides them, too, most notably their styles of play. While Stoke's physical, direct style is well-documented, Blackpool's quick, attack-minded gameplan has been a breath of fresh air, although it does leave them exposed to the sort of rapid counter-attacks that experienced Premier League teams are well-versed in, and the evolution in Tony Pulis' side that has seen them bring in speedy, direct wingmen Matthew Etherington and Jermaine Pennant means the Potters can now execute these kind of breaks, as well as offering a significant threat from set-pieces, another area Blackpool have been found wanting in on occasion this season. Admittedly Betfred's 4/6 on the home win is shorter than the 11/10 this writer has priced them at, it's still worth your while taking advantage of it
Sky's advent of Monday Night Football (well, it was actually the NFL that came up with it) was designed for matches like Man Utd v Arsenal, a crucial game for both sides- a win for either side would be a huge boost for their title chances, with the top 4 all playing one another in the coming weeks. Last season, this clash very much went to stereotype- Arsenal dominating early on with some majestic football but failing to capitalise, with their defensive frailties costing them late in the game. These traits are still very much a part of their game, meaning Sportingbet's 28/1 on half-time/full-time Arsenal/Man Utd should be considered
Wanna have a guess at what price you'll get on Real Sociedad, 6th in La Liga, having won their last 2 (including the Basque derby conquering of Athletic Bilbao), to win away at Barcelona on Sunday? Victor Chandler will give you 33/1. Yep, that's right, 33/1. A quid on them nets you £34 if they beat Pep Guardiola's superteam. Tempted?
Have a wee flutter on the mighty Staggies tomorrow. New manager Willie McStay takes Ross County to Partick Thistle tomorrow, with Blue Square offering 7/4 on County taking all 3 points

The Return of Graeme's Silly Bet

2010-11-30T22:03:00.002Z

After a long time away, the midweek stupid bet returns
This week I'm focusing on the UEFA secondary competition, the Europa League

Metalist Kharkiv to beat Debrecen
Hajduk Split to beat AEK Athens
Getafe to beat Odense BK
PSV to beat Sampdoria
Young Boys to beat Stuttgart
Zenit St Petersburg to beat Anderlecht
Levski Sofia to beat AA Gent
Atletico Madrid to beat Aris
Juventus to beat Lech Poznan
Man City to beat Red Bull Salzburg
Bayer Leverkusen to beat Rosenborg
Sporting to beat Lille

Place £1 on that at William Hill and it's 5975/1

I'm off out to the bookies to secure 6 grand. Tata now

Weekend Betting, Saturday 27th November

2010-11-26T19:48:00.004Z

Scottish Category 1 referess may be on strike this weekend, but this writer isn't, so here's a look at this weekend's somewhat truncated fixture list:

Aston Villa v Arsenal looks interesting, with one team managed by a Frenchman featuring plenty of talented youngsters who like to play quick, counter-attacking football but have been prone to late defensive lapses in recent weeks against...erm...you get the picture. Arsenal have lost their last 2 and must also now do without Cesc Fabregas for a couple of weeks, however they do have alternatives for his position, with Samir Nasri or Tomas Rosicky likely to play in Fabregas' advanced central midfield position, meaning they still possess a potent goal threat for an Aston Villa defence that is not always the most mobile. Villa themselves possess considerable attacking threat, with Ashley Young and Barry Bannan in particular thriving under the management of Gerard Houllier, and more than capable of troubling an Arsena backline that has looked distinctly unsettled without Thomas Vermaelen. All this makes the generally available 10/11 on over 2.5 goals worth snapping up
After their impressive start, West Brom's form has nosedived, with the Baggies now dowin in 16th place in the league. Everton, meanwhile, have recovered somewhat form their traditional awful start, and can be backed at a general 4/7 to beat Roberto di Matteo's side at Goodison Park
Quick word of warning for anyone blindly sticking Celtic on their accumulator tomorrow. Their opponents, caley thistle, are unbeaten in the league away from home for 364 days. That's not the sort of stat you oppose lightly
It's El Clasico on Monday night (yes, Monday night. It's unknown if anyone's actually pleased about this), with Barcelona v Real Madrid set to feature a dramatic contrast in playing styles and mentalities. Madrid will travel to the Camp Nou set on not losing the game and will most likely look to frustrate Barcelona, therefore it's worth backing them to manage this at least until half time, with 0-0 half-time available at 5/2 with Blue Square

"Wonder if Brewster likes Willie. Maybe he'd be convinced if Willie got Wood"

Shifty and Graeme's (and Danny and Rory's) Latest Big Blog Adventure

2010-11-19T12:18:00.003Z

Saturday 6th November 2010, Falkirk v Ross County

12:10pm
Graeme, Danny and Rory arrive in Falkirk, at Falkirk Grahamston station, conveniently situated in the centre of the town, and within walking distance of the imaginatively-named Falkirk Stadium. Shifty, however, due to Scotrail engineering works, ends up at Falkirk High station, which is on the other side of town, and therefore has to make a 20-minute cross-town trek to meet up with his chums. Why does a town the size of Falkirk need 2 railway stations anyway?

12:30
The group meet up in the Behind the Wall pub, and the first round of pints are ordered. The group notice that the pub are running a bus to the game, and then back to the pub afterwards, for free for anyone buying drinks. After some deilberation, the group decide to take up this offer of a free lift to the game.

12:50
Danny suggests a game- 20 questions, with the subject matter being obscure SPL and EPL players from the mid-1990s onwards. Classic names such as Hicham Zerouali, Theo Snelders, Billy Dodds and Mickael Silvestre all come up. The group also reminisce about the time when Shifty remarked that a particularly depressed-looking Davie Weir, immediately after one of Rangers' Champions League shellackings, looked like "his wife just died". NB: This is of course untrue. Mrs Weir met her maker throwing herself infront of the king's horse in the derby

13:20
Another drinking game. Name the ground, and if you've been there, take a drink. As the group are all fairly well-travelled, this didn't last long.

13:40
The pub have the Bolton v Tottenham game on. With Bolton winning 3-0, Harry Redknapp's face looks even more hangdog than usual. During the 2nd half, the group all put £1 in a "corner kitty", and every time there is a corner in the match, the kitty moves to the next person. Graeme eventually claims the £4 jackpot

14:20
The bus arrives, and the group head off to the match. Shifty gets heckled for wearing his County top

14:40
The group arrive at the ground and make their way around to the away end, to join a travelling County support of about 200, among them an old boy in a rastafarian hat

15:00
The match kicks off, with Graeme having used his corner kitty jackpot to get the 50-50 tickets in

15:15
Some choice chants are forthcoming: "Referee, ya balloon!", followed by the excellent "Referee, you're about as much use as Anne Frank's drumkit" (Copyright Danny, 2010)

15:27
GOOOAALLL! 1-0 County, Andy Barrowman after some sexual work from Iain Vigurs. Jose Mourinho is said to be monitoring his progress

15:45
Half-time, County deservedly 1-0 up, and playing with some style and panache too. The half-time queue for pies as quite big, though, with only 2 folk serving. By the time the group get to the front, all the pies are gone, meaning Rory has to munch on a jumbo hotdog. This lack of pies leads to some frustration among the more senile members of the travelling support

16:00
The 2nd half kicks off as the group get their munch from the kiosk

16:30
County still leading 1-0 but having to absorb some pressure, although the Staggies do look threatening on the counter-attack. Graeme, while checking other scores on his phone, happens to notice that Celtic are running up a cricket score against Aberdeen

16:50
Peep-peep! Full time 1-0 County. A bully result. The group begin the walk back into town

17:20
The group pitch up in Sportsters, in the town centre, and pints are ordered. Shifty is told to remove his County top. What sort of sports bar doesn't allow its patrons to wear sports kit?
The group find a table next to a PC, and much laughs are had when they find that the most visited website on it is bebo

18:00
The group move on to another pub, the Scotia. Again, Shifty is asked to remove his County top, but the locals are more friendly here, and the group have another pint before heading off home.

20:00
The group arrive back at their own pads, and find that, after all attending County games, home and away, for many moons, they have been dismissed as a "notable fanny element" on the County forum. Happy days

Weekend Betting Preview, Saturday 6th November

2010-11-04T19:57:00.003Z

Good evening, all. First things first, happy birthday Craig.

Now, down to business. The appearance of this entry on a Thursday has probably left you wondering that this writer is either a) super-organised or b) off out on the bevvy this weekend. It is the latter of those two options, and relates to the aforementioned birthday greeting. So, this weekend's tips, then (with it being a UEFA Cup Thursday, many games are on Sunday):

In the Premier League (curiously, the more accurate moniker of Bundesliga and La Liga are Better League has yet to catch on), Manchester United should extend their current unbeaten run to 24 games by beating Wolves at Old Trafford on Saturday, despite "Irishman" Mick McCarthy's side's victory over citeh last weekend. Coral's 1/4 on a United win isn't going to make you a millionaire, though, so for a bit more value, have a look at a few other markets. United have been in good goalscoring form of late, and with Wolves shipping an average of just over 2 goals a game away from home, the general 6/10 available on over 2.5 goals should be snapped up. Another market favoured by this writer is the Anytime Goalscorer market- with Darren Fletcher and Anderson likely to miss out injured, and the possibility of Paul Scholes being rested with Wednesday's Manchester derby looming, there could be a starting place for Darron Gibson (SHOOT!) which makes bet365's 4/1 on him to score anytime appealing

It's FA Cup 1st Round time! There are a number of "David v Goliath" clashes for you to blindly stick on an accumulator, and among them it's worh backing AFC Wimbledon (1/2), Carlisle (2/9), Port Vale (4/7), Hartlepool (4/11), Hereford (2/9) and Notts County (4/11). However, look a bit deeper and you can find a few potential shocks. One of those could take place at Highbury. No, Arsenal haven't decided to rebuild their old pad, but Fleetwood Town of the Conference host Walsall, who are currently bottom of League One, on a poor run of form and with just one league win away from home this season. Fleetwood Town, in decent form themselves, can be backed at a general 9/4 to beat The Saddlers

As promised earlier, let's have a look at the Brazilian Grand Prix this weekend. The weather is likely to play a significant part in proceedings for Friday and Saturday at least, with a dry race currently forecast, although that could all yet change. If qualifying were to stay dry, then the general 16/1 available on local boy (and Interlagos specialist) Felipe Massa must be snapped up, even if only each-way. Elsewhere, on what is essentially a power circuit, the Mercedes engine is the donkey to have in the back of your motor, and after doing so in the last 2 races, Michael Schumacher could be set for another top 6 finish- Blue Square'll give you 3/1 on him doing just that. He's pretty handy in the wet, too

"I'm a pro athlete, I'm not trying to be the best at exercise"

Preview of Weekend Betting Preview

2010-11-04T12:39:00.002Z

Ahoy, folks!

A quick line to say that I'll get a preview of this weekend's action up tonight, for tomorrow be featuring a classic game of Friday Football for this writer. I'll also hopefully squeeze in a quick bit about F1. On F1, looks to me judging by this article http://www.autosport.com/features/article.php/id/3151 that Autosport journo Mark Hughes has had his collar felt somewhat by Ferrari. Hughes is a well-respected F1 journalist from the north-east of England, and says his source is someone within the Ferrari team. Hmmm- I wonder if there's anyone in the Ferrari team who would have access to Felipe Massa's telemetry who's also from that part of the world?

Over and out

"What's this one called, Shrek?"

Weekend Betting, Saturday 16th October, and the incontinence problem among bookmakers

2010-10-15T19:26:00.003+01:00

Getting these on the now as I'm off to Old Trafford tomorrow. K Stand Tier 2

Here are a few tips for the weekend, then:

Arsenal, despite their recent aberration at home to West Brom, should have enough to comfortably dispose of a Birmingham side whose recent form can best be described as patchy. Boylesports' 1/3 is probably about right, along with over 2.5 goals at a general 1/2 in a game that usually produces them
Aston Villa host Chelsea in the 5.30pm game, a fixture that Villa won 2-1 last season. Given this, and that Chelsea will be without Drogba, Lampard and Alex amongst others, the 4/1 generally available on Villa seems good value. This is a fixture that has caught Chelsea out in the past, indeed a trawl through this very blog's archives will produce this writer tipping Villa in this fixture last season. Also, you'll never guess where this writer was the day of that game. Also worth considering in this game is John Carew 1st goalscorer- the giant Norwegian will be relishing the prospect of facing a potentially makeshift Chelsea defence, and is available at a best price of 10/1 with bwin
There are a few interesting bets to be had in the Championship this weekend. Doncaster to win away at Scunthorpe are great value at 15/8 with Stan James, while another away win in Yorkshire could be seen at Bramall Lane, with Burnley available at a general 7/4 to triumph over inconsistent Sheffield United. The best value bet, though, might just be Norwich to win away at QPR at an outstanding 9/2 with bet365. QPR's excellent start to the season has been well-documented, but Norwich under Paul Lambert have been quietly impressive on their return to the Championship and currently reside in 3rd place. The 9/2 on the Canaries could be a nice single if you're feeling brave, alternatively the double chance Norwich-Draw is available at a general 11/10
It's official: the bookies have shat themselves! Many have suspended betting on Stirling Albion v Dundee tomorrow, and those that are still running markets have severely shortened Stirling Albion after the redundancies at Dundee today. Of the odds still available, Hills' 6/5 as as good as you'll find (they were 7/4 yesterday), and should be snapped up- Albion must surely now be favourites given the shedding of playing and coaching staff forced upon Dundee
As regular readers of this blog will know, this writer tends to shy away from betting on his own teams, but the 4/1 offered by Ladbrokes on Ross County to win away at Dunfermline is very tempting, especially considering the return last weekend of strikers Andy Barrowman and Steven Craig for the Staggies

Remember the name, Shinji Kagawa

This Old Chestnut, and some other tips

2010-10-11T20:05:00.003+01:00

A few tips coming up, along with an old favourite topic of mine:

England v Montenegro, Tuesday 12th October
Regular readers of this blog will know my feelings about the odds offered on England games, and once again they have gone far too short in their pricing for this game, with England at a general 1/4. Montenegro, despite their lack of experience competing as an independent nation, are not the minnows their 5th seeding for these qualifiers suggests. They are currently ranked 40th in the world (only 3 places below that world footballing superpower the Czech Republic), and have won all 3 of their games in this group so far, putting them well in contention for at least 2nd place in the group. They can be backed outright at a general 14/1, with the draw available at 11/2 with totesport- both are worth a small flutter, or alternatively one should be able to lay England at somewhere close to 4/1. Also, on the handicap market, Montenegro +2 appeals, and if you shop around you should find this bet available above evens. Finally, if you're looking for a couple of anytime goalscorers, then have a wee punt on Steven Gerrard (13/8 with Boylesports), who should be free from the general malaise affecting his club side, and Montenegro's main goal threat, short-lifing Roma striker Mirko Vucinic (19/4 with Unibet)

Ah, international midweeks. Finding value here is extremely difficult, particularly this week, which seems to have even more big team v little team matches than usual. One could fairly safely populate their coupon with Turkey, Germany, Czech Republic, Portugal and France, but there are a few interesting bets out there. Italy are a very tempting 5/6 with Unitbet to win at home to a Serbia side just off the back of a 3-1 home defeat to Estonia, while the general 4/6 on Russia to win in Macedonia should also be snapped up. A final, more speculative punt would be to back in-form Austria at a general 4/1 to win away at inconsistent and inexperienced Belgium. Tuck in, folks

What we've learned so far this season

2010-10-02T13:33:00.002+01:00

Here are a few things we've learned so far this season, along with a few tips for this weekend:

Darren Bent- the gift that keeps on giving
Last season, this writer was quick to jump on the Darren Bent 1st goalscorer bandwagon, and made a healthy profit from doing so. He's started this season in good form as well, with 5 Premier League goals so far, 2 of them 1st, as well as getting off the mark internationally. This afternoon he's available at a shade under 7/1 1st goalscorer with Unibet, and 23/10 anytime scorer with Boylesports- outstanding value against a Manchester United defence that has conceded 9 goals in 5 away games in all competitions so far this season

Sir Alex Ferguson may have a sense of humour
When asked about Javier Hernandez's winning goal against Valencia, Sir Alex's response was along the lines of "he needs to work on his physique, but he's a fantastic finisher, it's like shelling peas to him". Hernandez bears the moniker "Chicharito" on the back of his shirt. Chicharito in Hernandez's mother tongue, Spanish, of course means "Little Pea". I'm here all week (Sir Alex isn't, though- he's not talking to anyone from the media for a month)

Steve McClaren is Wolfsburg boss, and was FC Twente boss last season
Commentators, pundits, journalists, WE ALL KNOW THIS. You do not need to remind us every time 1 of the 2 aforementioned teams comes up in conversation

A couple of tasty lower-league bets for you this afternoon
Rochdale (4th in League 1, unbeaten in their last 6, 2-2-0 away) are a very tasty 9/4 to win away at 11th place Exeter, while in League 2 table-topping Port Vale (won their last 5, 4-0-0 away from home) are a shade over (OVER!) 2/1 with Victor Chandler away at 12th-placed Oxford (no wins in their last 3, 1-1-2 at home). Tuck in to those, folks

Alessandro Del Piero: still got it
Il Pinturicchio has been in sparkling form for a stuttering Juventus side this season, and although the 35-year-old has yet to score in Serie A, he has been a joy to watch, creating opportunities for team-mates (and keeping new signing Simone Pepe mostly on the bench) and, along with Serbian winger Milos Krasic, providing flair and incision in an otherwise functional Juventus side. Extrabet offer 9/1 on him to get off the mark with the 1st goal in tomorrow night's game away to Inter

Rant

2010-09-14T22:12:00.002+01:00

First and foremost, get well soon Tony. Hearing that the injury is not dissimilar to that suffered by ex-Arsenal striker Eduardo. Also, this writer attaches no blame to Broadfoot, the tackle was a legal one.

However, as the title suggests, there is a rant to be had tonight.

The "performance" of Rangers tonight, and the "tactics" used by the geriatric Walter Smith deserve the most fierce condemnation. Absolutely no attacking intent was displayed, with the sole aim of stopping their opponents. The term "anti-football" has been thrown at them. While I myself am reluctant to use it, one thing is true.

This is not football.

What appals this writer, though, is the reaction to this. Tomorrow's back pages (and probably a couple of front ones, too) will praise Rangers for "a superb defensive performance" and the like. The usual meaningless buzz-words forever associated with Scottish football, "commitment", "desire", "determination", will no doubt be bandied about. The brutal hacks of Lee McCulloch (the worst of which earned him a yellow card in injury-time. It could very easily have been red) will be glossed over as the "spirit" and "composure" of 874-year-old David Weir are praised to the hilt, overlooking the fact that his total lack of pace forces his teams to play incredibly deep to avoid him being exposed.

In a continuation of this theme, I think we all know that the Rangers approach will be adopted by Scotland next month against Czech Republic and Spain. Mercifully, McCulloch is suspended for the Czech Republic game. Even still, playing this way this writer finds it difficult to love the national team under prgamatic coach Craig Levein, and would be ashamed if United or County ever adopted anything like such an eye-wateringly grim approach.

You shoulf enjoy your football. When your team's playing Rangers though, it's difficult

Weekend Betting 3rd-4th September

2010-09-01T20:15:00.003+01:00

Now, because some bright spark at UEFA thought that moving international qualifiers from Saturdays and Wednesdays to Fridays and Tuesdays (meaning that this writer msut endeavour to get away from work on time 2 nights as opposed to just 1, and can't enjoy very much pre-match bevvying at all), getting the weekend tips up on Friday simply will not do. So here are a few matches to keep an eye on this weekend (well, Friday):

As ever, finding value among the qualifying matches is difficult, with many matches expected to be particularly one-sided- for instance, Serbia, Holland, Spain and Russia should all see off minnows Faroe Islands (for whom Ross County centre-back Atli Gregersen should feature), San Marino, Liechtenstein and Andorra respectively
Still not great value, but Germany are available at a general 4/7 to win away in Belgium, who despite boasting a number of talented individuals, have been rather inconsistent in recent years
Blue Square also offer 4/7 on Slovakia to beat FYR Macedonia at home- surprisingly generous considering Vladimir Weiss' men getting to the last 16 of the World Cup. 4/7 is a good price considering FYR Macedonia's lack of top-level talent to complement Inter forward Goran Pandev
Norway impressed in a 2-1 friendly win over France last month, and are available at 10/11 with Betfred to win away to an Iceland side from whom they took 4 points during World Cup qualification. Striker Erik Huseklepp was particularly impressive against France, scoring twice, and he can be backed at a best price of 15/2 with Victor Chandler to score 1st in Reykjavik
England should be nowhere near as short as the 3/10 general that they are currently quoted at. A much better bet is the half-time draw at 6/4

And remember: Bet safely. Bet Shifty

Manchester City v Liverpool, Monday 23rd August 2010

2010-08-22T19:42:00.002+01:00

My Thoughts

Two teams here with ambitions of a top 4 finish, both with 1 point on the board thus far. While Liverpool were denied all 3 points on the opening weekend only by a rare late blunder by goalkeeper Pepe Reina, City never looked like getting 3 points at Spurs due to a complete lack of creativity and incision in the middle of the park. For Liverpool, Fernando Torres has been working his way back to full fitness following the World Cup, and could be ready to start with Joe Cole, who hasn't had the best of weeks, unavailable, although Woy Hodgson may well have Thursday's UEFA Cup tie away to Trabzonspor in mind when naming his team. City could hand home and full debuts respectively to Mario Balotelli and James Milner- they certainly need a more creative influence in central midfield, something the introduction of Milner could provide either as a direct replacement for perhaps Nigel de Jong or Gareth Barry, or wide left to allow David Silva to occupy a more central position

The Verdict
As aforementioned, both teams have aspirations of a top 4 finish and therefore would love all 3 points. However, a defeat for either would leave them 5 points off the top of the league, which even at this early stage of the season would leave them playing catch-up. Both managers are also likely to have one eye on UEFA Cup games on Thursday night. Draw

The Bet
The draw can be backed outright at a general 9/4. It's likely to be a cagey affair, so also consider under 2.5 goals at a best price of 4/6 with Boylesports. Also, with Fernando Torres still finding his form and fitness, Liverpool's best hope a goal with Joe Cole suspended could well be Steven Gerrard (who may or may not have obtained a superinjunction to prevent the reporting his alleged impregnation of a 15-year-old girl). He can be backed to score (as he may or may not have done in the aforementioned alleged incident) anytime at a best price of 7/2 with Paddy Power

Shifty's Season Preview Part 5

2010-08-09T19:49:00.002+01:00

BBB

After the Wigan preview, let's stay in Lancashire and assess the chances of Blackpool, Blackburn and Bolton.

Ian Holloway's Blackpool must be one of the most favoured relegation candidates in Premier League history at a general 2/7, and it's difficult to argue against that. So I won't bother.

The squad lacks not only quality but also quantity, and the morale of those players must surely be affected by the late payment of their promotion bonuses- given that they've had to spend money to bring Bloomfield Road up to Premier League standards, Holloway is unlikely to have much leeway to do anything other than raid the reserve teams of bigger clubs for a few loan deals, a tactic they had success with last season with Everton's Seamus Coleman and Aston Villa's Barry Bannan both impressing. Even if Holloway finds another few gems (and Charlie Adam continues his Championship form), they are unlikely to be anywhere other that 20th come May.

Blackpool prediction: 20th
How they'll cope with the home-grown rule: Absolutely fine- their squad is almost exclusively home-grown players, although it's still some way short of the permitted 25.

Blackburn Rovers ended last season very well, finishing 10th. The football under Sam Allardyce wasn't easy on the eye (and never has been under Allardyce) but Blackburn were difficult to beat, particularly at home, as their 10-6-3 record at Ewood Park shows. Allardyce must address their lack of potency in attack, though- their top scorer, David Dunn, managed just 9 league goals, and it's by no means certain that he'll be fit for all 38 games. Allardyce has brought in Manchester United youngster Mame Biram Diouf (allowing him the possibility of a Diouf and Diouf strike partnership), but one suspects they may still struggle to match last season's achievements. They have enough steel and defensive solidity, though, to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap.

Prediction: 13th
How they'll cope with the homegrown rule: Just about OK. Allardyce may yet add more Premier League experience, particularly in attack
RoversBet: Their lack of a proven Premier League goalscorer means Paddy Power's 25/1 on them to be the Premier League's lowest scorers is very tempting, especially when you consider the more cavalier styles of the 3 promoted sides

Bolton Wanderers under Owen Coyle were a more aesthetically pleasing side than under the deeply unpopular Gary Megson, finishing 14th. They look well placed to continue their improvement, with Coyle promising more entertaining football. Defensively, they are solid- Jussi Jaaskelainen has excelled in this league for a number of years, while Gary Cahill's England debut should come at some point this season. In midfield, Lee Chung-Yong has adapted very well to the Premier League, and was one of the few players in the league to have a good World Cup, while on the opposite flank Martin Petrov could be the free transfer of the summer. Up top, Kevin Davies provides bulk and a physical presence (if not massively prolific infront of goal), while Johan Elmander must surely start to justify his £9 million price tag. The Trotters' squad features a good mix of experienced Premier League campaigners, such as Davies and Jaaskelainen, along with promising youngsters such as Lee, Cahill, Marcos Alonso and Mark Davies (as opposed to the Allardyce regime, which almost exclusively contained 30-something journeymen booting both the ball and the opposition into the air). A top 10 finish is within their reach, provided they can maintain their upward trend under Coyle

Prediction: 10th
How they'll cope with the home-grown rule: Fine. No problems for Coyle in this department, with his side containing experienced Premier League home-grown players such as Davies, Zat Knight, Paul Robinson and Jlloyd Samuel alongside young talent such as Cahill, Mark Davies (a much more cultured technician than Kevin. They are, unsurprisingly, not related, which is unusual, as most people in Bolton are related to each other), Fabrice Muamba and Chris Basham
BoltonBet: Ladbrokes offer 5/1 on Bolton to finish in the top 10

Shifty's Season Preview: the SPL

2010-08-07T10:34:00.003+01:00

My Thoughts

Both halves of the Old Firm have seen their squads change significantly- while Celtic have added quantity and quality sufficient for the SPL (how the likes of Daryl Murphy and Charlie Mulgrew will cope in the Europa League remains to be seen, however), Rangers have lost a significant number of players. While the losses of Steven Smith, DaMarcus Beasley and perhaps even Nacho Novo may not be felt, they will surely miss the goalscoring ability of Kris Boyd, and the balance in midfield offered by Kevin Thomson (the merits of having a left-footed player alongside a right-footed player in the centre of the park are much under-appreciated), and the loss of promising centre-back Danny Wilson to, in all probability, Liverpool's reserve team, will be a blow. While it's unlikely Rangers will be playing Champions League football after Christmas, their continental exploits will surely stretch their slimmed-down squad to its limits. Admittedly, Celtic are unlikely to go much further in the Europa League, but their bigger squad means they are better-equipped to compete on 2 fronts, which is why this writer is tipping Neil Lennon's side to reclaim the title. Lennon adapted well to life as an SPL manager, with Celtic winning all their league games under him last season, losing only to Ross County in the Scottish Cup Semi-Final.

Behind them, the rest of the top 6 looks fairly clear-cut. Dundee United look solid, if perhaps short of a 20-goal striker, while Motherwell look set to continue their improvement under Craig Brown, and can't be ruled out from a challenge for 3rd. Hearts could well move above Hibs if Australian comedian Jim Jefferies can keep Kevin Kyle fit- as long as referees continue not to penalise him in the SPL, he'll continue to climb all over defenders for headers, while Hibs' season imploded towards the end of last season- John Hughes' side never really recovered from their Scottish Cup exit at the hands of Ross County.

Down nearer the bottom, Aberdeen and St Johnstone have outside chances of making the top 6, with the other 4 teams (Hamilton, Inverness, Kilmarnock and St Mirren) battling (often literally- don't expect much football to be played at this end of the division) to avoid the drop. The caravan-dwellers from Inverness have SPL experience in their ranks, and look arguably the best placed of the 4 to survive. Hamilton will miss James McArthur, but have the ability to scrap their way out of trouble, and as long as they can find a reliable goalscorer, they should just be OK. Kilmarnock under new manager Mixu Paatelainen have adopted a novel transfer policy this summer of signing players who have the same name as established quality players, namely Mohammed Sissoko and David Silva. Unfortunately for them, Juventus and Manchester City are likely to notice should Paatelainen attempt to swap his players for their more famous namesakes, although this writer is considering changing his name to Bastian Schweinsteiger in an attempt to get a game at Rugby Park. The favourites for relegation, however, must be St Mirren. Gus Macpherson has left to be replaced by former Cowdenbeath boss Danny Lennon, who has taken a number of his old players with him to St Mirren. Lennon clearly trusts these players, but there's no getting away from the fact that Paul McQuade and Gareth Wardlaw were 3rd division players 12 months ago. Factor in the loss of the excellent Andy Dorman, and St Mirren look set for the drop.

Bet: St Mirren to be relegated @ 11/4 general

Shifty's Season Preview Part 4

2010-08-06T20:30:00.002+01:00

Wigan Athletic

Wigan under Roberto Martinez last season were consistently inconsistent. Wins over Arsenal, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Liverpool were followed up by a 4-0 defeat to Portsmouth, 2 5-0 defeats at the hands of Manchester United and 2 8 goal beatings in London.
Over the summer, Martinez had lost experienced campaigners Titus Bramble, Mario Melchiot and Paul Scharner (who is still a free agent. Someone's going to get themselves a real bargain if they snap him up), bringing in Paraguayan centre-back Antolin Alcaraz, Argentinian centre-forward Mauro Boselli, Bolton reserve keeper Ali Al-Habsi and Hamilton midfielder James McArthur. While all these signings have their merits (Alcaraz had a particularly impressive World Cup, Boselli has a good track record in Argentina and McArthur has excelled for Hamilton for a number of seasons despite his tender years), they have a total of 0 Premier League games under their belts. Assuming they can keep hold of Maynor Figueroa, Charles N'Zogbia and Hugo Rodallega, they do have the makings of a good footballing side, however they look more likely to be involved in a relegation scrap, which they may be unable to battle their way out of, particularly given that only Blackpool appear to be significantly worse than them.

Sticking-me-neck-on-the-line-predicted-finishing-position: 18th

How they'll cope with the home-grown rule: Oh dear. 3 more homegrown players are needed. Wigan scout South America very impressively, less so South Lancashire

Shifty's Season Preview Part 3

2010-08-05T19:37:00.004+01:00

Wolves

Last season, Mick McCarthy's lot battled their way to safety, although they owe their survival to the sides below them all being absolute murder. During the summer, McCarthy has been busy, raiding 2 of the sides who were below them for reinforcements- Steven Mouyokolo and Stephen Hunt signed from Hull, with Steven Fletcher arriving from Burnley. It remains to be seen how those 3, along with left-back Stephen Ward, will be able to tell when McCarthy bawls out in his Yorkshire (note Yorkshire, NOT IRISH) drawl, "Stephen! Fookin get stuck in and lump it!" who is actually required to fookin get stuck in and lump it. During the World Cup, McCarthy also demonstrated a shocking lack of basic knowledge of the game- a couple of his "highlights" including:

"Is that the Veron?" upon seeing Juan Sebastian Veron in central midfield for Argentina. When the taxpayer is generously funding your appearance as an "expert" in South Africa, the least you can do is do a bit of research
"Can they not have Smith marking him?" upon seeing that Greece had deployed Sokratis Papastathopoulos as a man-marker on Lionel Messi

Still, he had one advantage over Mark Lawrenson in that this writer did not feel compelled to complain to OFCOM about him.

Back to Wolves. They stayed up last season but the football wasn't exactly awe-inspiring, as they managed just 32 goals last season. McCarthy often played just Kevin Doyle on his own upfront, with 5 in midfield- it remains to be seen if the signing of Fletcher will lead to a change to 2 upfront or a place either on the bench or in a wide midfield position for one of them. Behind the front line, new man Hunt will add endeavour on the wing, while Serbian Nenad Milijas will look to establish himself as a regular, having offered creativity and the odd long-range thunderbolt sporadically last season. Other than that, the midfield is hard-working and combative, but offers little penetration, and the passing ranges of centre-backs Jody Craddock and Christophe Berra are limited, although Craddock did get his head on a number of Milijas set-pieces last season- indeed, he was their 2nd top scorer. With 5. All told, they look set for another struggle, with failure the likely end result.

Sticking-me-neck-on-the-line-predicted-finishing-position: 19th

How they will cope with the home-grown rule: Fine. Wolves have a decent record of promoting academy graduates (Wayne Hennessey and Stephen Ward 2 of the most recent to make the 1st team) and much of their Championship-winning side who were recruited as promising youngsters from smaller clubs are still at Molineux

Shifty's Season Preview Part 2

2010-08-04T20:23:00.004+01:00

Everton

As previously explained, the teams are being written up in a completely random order. This is to ensure each team gets a fair write-up (I'll probably be running round looking even more like a madman than normal to get them all done by next Saturday).

So to Everton. After a horrific start to last season, both in terms of results and injuries, Everton did well to recover to 8th place, just missing out on a UEFA Cup (yes, I'm still calling it that) place. On the plus side, this means that their Thursdays are free this season. However, this does mean David Moyes has had little room to manoeuvre in the transfer market, a couple of young forwards notwithstanding.

Moyes has built a strong team at Goodison Park: the spine of the team is strong, provided by the likes of Phil Neville, Tim Howard, Tony Hibbert, Johnny Heitinga (Howard Webb's first appointment at Goodison will be interesting) and the fit-again Phil Jagielka, with flair and incision coming from the impressive Steven Pienaar, Mikel Arteta and Russian Lad Dinyar Bilyaletdinov. In attack, in Louis Saha and Yakubu they have 2 players who, injury permitting, could score 20 goals a season. Their resurgence in the 2nd half of the season (in the 2010 table, they are 3rd) was built mainly on an excellent home record of 11-6-2, as well as developing a handy knack of scoring late goals- 21 of their 60 league goals were scored in the last 15 minutes of games.

What will work against them is the continuing splashing of the petrodollars by other sides, but as long as they can stay clear of injuries, then with 1 or 2 additions (more on them in a minute) they can better last season's 8th place finish

Sticking-my-neck-on-the-line-predicted-finishing-position: 6th

How they'll cope with the new home-grown rule: Well, seeing as you ask, they might be a bit short. Hibbert, Jagielka, Neville, Baines, Osman, Vaughan and Anichebe are their only current homegrown players (Jack Rodwell is not yet 21, and therefore does not count as 1 of the required 8). Don't be surprised to see them linked with a loan move for David Bentley

Bet: Everton to finish in the top 6 @7/4 with Stan James

Shifty's Season Preview Part 1

2010-08-03T20:12:00.002+01:00

It's that time of year again: Season Preview time! Here's part 1 of a few, it'll probably be a mad dash to get them all on in time for next Saturday, but I'll manage it. Hopefully.

Stoke City

Right, hold on a minute here, you're thinking. Why not start with Arsenal, as per the alphabet, you ask. Well, as I hinted at earlier, this has sprung up on me quickly, and to start with Arsenal and go alphabetically would probably not give me enough time to properly write up the chances of the Ts and the Ws of the league.

So we begin with Stoke, who, after last season's 11th place finish, have established themselves in the league, and also the shinpads of many of its players (get well soon, Aaron Ramsey). Their summer transfer activity has so far been notable for its complete non-existence, although that could change if boss Tony Pulis finds a player with a throw-in akin to that of Rory Delap who can actually contribute in open play. Transfer speculation linking them with Carlton Cole is said to be wide of the mark, though.

Their playing "style" is well-documented, and despite managing an improvement from 12th place in 08/09 to 11th last season, the football didn't improve- don't count on that changing this term unless Pulis plans a late swoop for a ball-playing midfielder more comfortable in possession than the likes of Salif Diao, Delap, Amdy Faye or Glenn Whelan. One area they did improve on last season was their away form- while just 4 away wins is still nothing to shout about, it nevertheless represents progress.

While their defence is hard-as-nails, marshalled by a rejuvenated Thomas Sorensen (who developed a handy knack of saving penalties, which helped cover the backsides of a defence who gave away far too many of them), they simply must score more than last season's meagre total of 34 goals with winger Matthew Etherington top scorer with just 5. Etherington, like Sorensen, has found a new lease of life at the Britannia Stadium, and providing Pulis can find a new frontman (or get more goals out of his current motley crew of James Beattie, Dave Kitson, Mamady Sidibe and Ricardo Fuller) to get on the end of Etherington's deliveries, they should comfortably survive again without ever threatening the top 8.

Sticking-me-neck-on-the-line-predicted-finishing-position: 11th

How will they cope with the home-grown rule: Fine. Pulis' squad largely contains British players

Bet: Worst disciplinary record @ 5/1 with Victor Chandler. They'll battle it out with Blackburn (literally on October 2) for this somewhat dubious honour

Holy jeebus, the new season has come up on me quickly

2010-08-02T22:24:00.003+01:00

Ahoy-ahoy!

With the new season starting this/next weekend, it's time for me to get my season previews up. Rest assured, folks, these will all be on in time for the big kick-off, along with a guide to how each of the Premier League teams are looking regarding the new "home-grown" rule, and no shortage of tips.

Also, anyone else noticed the relative lack of publicity for the new Premier League season compared to previous seasons? Have Sky Sports finally accepted that it's actually not the best league around, and don't particularly want to push a league containing the players exposed so ruthlessly by Germany at the World Cup?

And another thing. Sky are unhappy about OFCOM forcing them to let other providers offer their sports channels. WE GET IT RUPERT

I love this woman

Shifty's Team of The World Cup before someone duffs it up in the Final

2010-07-10T22:13:00.002+01:00

Well, I had a go at the start of the knockout stage, with mixed results. Here's my definitive World Cup Team of the Tournament (we'll be adopting a 4-2-3-1 formation). Any suggestions or questions (for example, why would a police force tell us someone had been tasered when their autopsy shows no such signs?) then please leave a comment

Goalkeeper: My initial team had Uruguay's Fernando Muslera, but he has looked shaky in the knockout stages. Most folk will probably opt for Iker Casillas, but as regular readers of this blog will know, I'm obnoxious and perverse about these things, and enjoy being different. Step forward (not too far forward, though, or you'll get lobbed) Portugal's Eduardo

Right-back: Maicon got the number 2 shirt initially, but Brazil's early exit combined with the outstanding performances of Phillipp Lahm means the Germany captain gets the nod ahead of Holland's Gregory van der Wiel and Uruguay's Jorge Fucile

Centre-backs: Ricardo Carvalho and Ryan Nelsen got the nod 1st time round, but both are displaced by players whose teams have advanced further. Gerard Pique and Arne Friedrich have both been outstanding

Left-back: Again, a player who starred early on is replaced by someone who has taken his team all the way- Giovanni van Bronckhorst replaces Fabio Coentrao here

Central midfield: This team will play with 2 deep-lying midfielders as opposed to just Rafael Marquez in the initial team. Bayern Munchen pair Mark van Bommel and Bastian Schweinsteiger have both excelled, and their familiarity with each other will be an asset at the heart of this team

Right wing: Thomas Muller has emerged as an absolute megastar from relative obscurity at this tournament- he's a leading contender for the Golden Boot and Young Player of the Tournament, and takes the place of Alexis Sanchez in this team. Much has been made of Miroslav Klose's pursuit of Ronaldo's World Cup scoring record; come 2018, Muller could have that record of 15 well within his sights

Left wing: Arjen Robben. The Dutch taught everyone how to manage a player carrying an injury into the tournament. Never left the bench until 20 minutes from the end of the dead rubber group game against Cameroon, Robben was then able to add another dimension to Bert van Marwijk's functional outfit, and was influential in the knockout stages. Incidentally, Robben's inclusion brings the number of Bayern Munchen players in this team to 5

Playmaker: Wesley Sneijder
Sneijder has been a class above at this World Cup, adding guile to an at times pragmatic Holland team, scoring 5 goals in the process, practically unheard of for a midfielder

Striker: Now here's an interesting one. The 3 players behind this guy have all had successful tournaments because of the ability of the striker to occupy defenders, sometimes to the detriment of their own scoring record. That still doesn't mean Heskey's any use, though. This rules out deploying David Villa (who has spent much of the tournament starting wide left and moving towards goal) or Diego Forlan (who has found much joy playing just off the front, and with Suarez and Cavani operating in the channels ahead of him) in this position- were the team opting for a basic 4-4-2, then they would probably be the partnership of choice, but as aforementioned on this blog, 4-4-2 is dead. One trait that this team would have is the ability to break quickly down the flanks through Muller and Robben (Villa could have been an option on the left, but would not provide the natural width offered by Robben), therefore requiring a finisher inside the box. Step forward Bayern Munchen player number 6, Miroslav Klose

Shifty's Team of the World Cup so far

2010-06-26T11:07:00.008+01:00

Basically, I have long held the opinion that anything Mick Mccarthy can do, I can do better. So, when I saw the Irishman with the broad Yorkshire accent pick his team of the tournament on the Guardian website this morning, I decided to have a go myself. Unlike Mccarthy, who picked 11 players in no shape, with many of them out of position, I have decided to try and pick something which could work as a team, in a 4-3-3 formation.

Goalkeeper: Fernando Muslera (Uruguay). World Cup Sticker Book Status: Got

One of only 2 goalkeepers to have kept a clean sheet in all 3 of his side's games so far (Muslera got the nod just infront of Portugal's Eduardo, who would warm the bench for this side if there was one). Muslera has been commanding behind an ever-changing defence both in terms of personnel and shape- Uruguay have altered between a back 3 and a back 4 during the tournament so far. He has dealt with everything that has been thrown at him so far, and, with the Uruguayan front line lead by Diego Forlan in fine form so far, a continuation of his current form could see Uruguay go a long way

Right-back: Maicon (Brazil). World Cup Sticker Book Status: Got

Brazil's rampaging right-back edges out Holland's talented but rash Gregory van der Wiel and Germany captain Philipp Lahm in a position where, apart from the three aforementioned number 2s, no-one has really stood out: Argentina's Jonas Gutierrez is yet to be properly tested defensively, Portugal have used 3 so far, Spain's Sergio Ramos has yet to hit top form and Glen Johnson has looked shaky. Chile play with 3 central defenders, of whom Gary Medel looks like having the attributes required to play this position

Left-back: Fabio Coentrao (Portugal). World Cup Sticker Book Status: Not in book

One of the stars of the tournament so far, the 22-year-old only started to estabish himself for Benfica this season, before making the breakthrough into Carlos Queiroz's side. He has defended dilligently, and has ventured forward at every opportunity, getting involved in a number of Portugal's 7 goals against North Korea, using his pace to get into advanced positions, where his crossing has been excellent. Expect rumours of Real Madrid/Barcelona/Premier League interest to appear soon

Centre-backs: Ricardo Carvalho (Portugal, Got) and Ryan Nelsen (New Zealand, Got)

Carvalho has once again demonstrated his ability at the highest level, as well as an understanding of the dark arts of the game (and getting away with it) that is uneuqalled on the world stage. New Zealand's performances were nothing short of heroic, with Nelsen the perfect embodiment of that, displaying not only immense bravery but also good organisational and communication skills in marshalling the less experienced players around him, namely Tommy Smith and Winston Reid, both of whom should also get honourable mentions in this category

Defensive Midfield: Rafael Marquez (Mexico, Got)

Nominally a centre-back for Barcelona, Marquez has been used at the base of Javier Aguirre's 3 man midfield, the position he plays for this team. He brings the ball out of defence well, with short, quick, simple passes to his more forward-thinking team-mates, as well as providing useful height at set-pieces, as seen in the opening game, along with cover in central defence.

Central Midfield: Juan Sebastian Veron (Argentina, Need) and Angel Di Maria (Argentina, Got)

Seba Veron has been a joy to watch so far- such composure on the ball, with a fantastic passing range ('tis a very rare sight, Veron giving the ball away) and a ferocious strike. At 35, he no longer has the legs to run up and down the park for 90 minutes, but next to him he has the livewire Di Maria, who normally plays as a left-winger for Benfica (linking up with Coentrao), but an ingenious move by Diego Maradona has seen him stationed nominally in central midfield for Argentina alongside Veron, but with license to push on.

Outside-Right: Alexis Sanchez (Chile, Got)

Arguably the player of the tournament so far. Chile have been ultra-entertaining so far, with Sanchez on the right wing the pick of a very exciting young group. He has bags of tricks, plenty of pace and a great work ethic, tracking back when required. Another thing he does well that has drifted out of the game is that he holds his position wide when not in possession, thereby stretching the game and restricting any forward runs from the opposing full-back. His club Udinese will do well to keep him, although if they do lose him, they're likely to receive a transfer fee in excess of £20 million

Outside Left: Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal, Got)

Has single-handedly led Portugal's attack. Has shown only flashes of his immense talent, but expect him to improve as the tournament goes on. Along with Sanchez, he just edges out Landon Donovan, Giovani dos Santos, Lionel Messi and Lukas Podolski for these positions

Centre-Forward: Diego Forlan (Uruguay, Got)

Forlan has been imperious so far, dictating the pace of the game from a slightly deeper position. He would operate just off the front in this team, moving away from the opposition centre-backs, allowing Ronaldo to move onto the shoulder of the last defender. Another contender for this position would be Gonzalo Higuain, but Forlan's all-round game has been much better than the poacher Higuain

The World Cup So Far Part 1

2010-06-19T11:35:00.002+01:00

After the first week of matches, here are a few things we've learned from South Africa 2010 so far:

The Contenders- South American sides on top
At this stage, the most likely winners of the tournament are Argentina and Brazil. Diego Maradona's side possess such potency going forward that, even with some slight uncertainties over their defence (one has to wonder whether or not makeshift right-back Jonas Gutierrez would cope with an Arjen Robben up against him, with only Javier Mascherano likely to offer any help from midfield), they could simply outscore teams with their array of attacking talent. Brazil have the ominous look of a team that, unlike previous Brazil sides, can sacrifice flair and grind out results even when they are not playing well. They have no such doubts at right-back, with Maicon likely to be a key attacking outlet. Also among the favourites at this stage are Germany (despite their loss to Serbia, they should still make at least the quarter-finals) and Holland, who, like Brazil, have added extra steel and organisation to their undoubted attacking talent- they should also be able to add Arjen Robben to their side in the later stages.

Of the other heavyweights, Spain have work to do. Along with the Barcelona side from whom some of this seleccion is drawn, their playing style has been found out. Jose Mourinho and Ottmar Hitzfeld have both shown that, by congesting the centre of the park when not in possession and forcing the opposition into the wide areas, and by avoiding trying to retain possesstion in the centre and by moving the ball quickly to the front, Spain and Barcelona can be stopped. Vicente Del Bosque seems reluctant to change his ways, although he may have to consider starting with Jesus Navas on the right wing to try and beat Honduras, who will no doubt copy the Hitzfeld model. France are heading for a disgraceful early exit and deservedly so. A similar fate may well await England- even if they make it out of their group, a tough 2nd round tie awaits them against either Germany, a vibrant Ghana or a steely Serbia. Italy, even taking into account their tradition of starting a tournament slowly. don't look anything like potential winners- quarter-finals at best for them on current form.

Of the other sides, Chile, Uruguay and Mexico have all looked impressive- it would be no surprise to see at least 1 of them in the quarter-finals. Chile's madcap 3-3-1-3 formation, combined with some slick, accurate passing at high tempo made them a joy to watch against Honduras, with Alexis Sanchez on the right of the 3 man attack particularly impressive. Uruguay were solid if unspectacular in their opener against France, but were a class above against South Africa- coach Oscar Tabarez moving Diego Forlan into the trequartista position working beautifully, as Forlan ran the show, continually finding space behind South Africa's flat midfield (more on that later). Mexico were equally impressive with their fluid 4-3-3 system, full of neat passing and movement, with Guillermo Franco the pivot in attack off whom the livewire Giovani Dos Santos and Carlos Vela can operate.

The Formations- The Death of 4-4-2
As I mentioned before, the South American sides have had the edge so far- but intriguingly, one thing that all the contenders mentioned have in common is that none of them (Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Holland, Mexico, Chile and Uruguay) play 4-4-2. Argentina play a quasi-4-3-3, which almost becomes a diamond 4-4-2 when Messi drops away from Higuain and Tevez. Having Mascherano in the DMC positions allows Di Maria the freedom to push on as an orthodox left-winger, with Veron (or Maxi Rodriguez) playing more centrally. Brazil play a fairly regulation 4-2-3-1, with 2 holding midfielders in Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo allowing Maicon and Michel Bastos bombing forward from the full-back positions. Germany also play 4-2-3-1, although their 2 central midfield players (Schweinsteiger and Khedira) are given more license to push forward- in actual fact, when Phillip Lahm pushes on, their system almost becomes a back 3, with the more defensively-minded Holger Badstuber sitting back and moving more centrally, with right-sided centre-back Arne Friedrich covering Lahm. For Holland, replace the 2 DMCs with Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong, until they both get suspended. Mexico, as aforementioned, play a very fluid 4-3-3, with the emphasis being on moving the ball quickly and accurately, with width being provided by Carlos Salcido from left-back, and Efrain Juarez from the right. Chile's 3-3-1-3 formation has made them arguably the best team to watch so far- their game against Spain should be a treat, while Uruguay moved from a back 3 against France to a 4-3-1-2 against South Africa designed to allow Diego Forlan to dictate the game against a flat 4-4-2.

Shifty's End of Season Awards in association with Morningwood Industries

2010-06-14T21:49:00.005+01:00

The rumours, speculation, and provocative texts from former Serbian Under-21 international Scott Djukic can now stop. The votes have been counted and verified, it's time to announce the winners of Shifty's End of Season Awards:

Player of the Year:
The majority of the voting panel went for Lionel Messi, with honourable mentions for Kevin Nolan, Wayne Rooney, Diego Milito and Richard Brittain. Shifty's rapid recovery from a broken metatarsal also gets a mention

Goal of the Season:
Plenty of suggestions for this award, ranging from Arjen Robben's millimetre-perfect volley for Bayern Munchen against Man Utd, Benjamin Huggel putting a beautiful finish (in off the underside of the bar is to goalscoring what the reacharound is to foreplay) to a fantastic team move, Karim Benzema finishing after that backheel from Guti, Duda from Malaga scoring direct from a corner (I thought it was just me who could do that) and numerous other golazos! from La Liga. But this award has to go to Steven Craig's goal for Ross County against Celtic in the Scottish Cup Semi Final, as it's the goal that the majority voted for. You see, at ShiftysLastWord, we give the people what they want, unlike the Scottish PFA. You won't see us fixing the result of a vote just so an Old Firm player can win. This blog tries to keep the sweary words on here to a minimum, but in the case of the Scottish PFA ignoring the results of the fans' poll in their goal of the season awards to give the award to an Old Firm player, we feel the following is justified:

FRASER WISHART IS A HORSE'S ARSE

Gaffer of the Season:
Derek Adams. Youngest ever manager to lead his side to a Scottish Cup Final- he will one day manage a much bigger club than Ross County

Best-Dressed Man of the Season:
Derek Adams was again the front-runner for this award for sartorial excellence. But after receiving a recommendation from former Serbian Under-21 international Scott Djukic, another candidate entered the running. And, for having the audacity to, in amongst thousands of orange boiler suit-clad Dutch supporters and kilted Scotland fans, wear a suit, and at the Scottish Cup Final opt for the classic kilt-and-County top look, Shifty's taking this award for himself

The How Is He Still Being Paid to Play Professional Football Award
Many contenders here, among them half the Aberdeen team, Joey Barton and Ross Tokely. Michael Carrick was a front runner, but his form only really suffered after his disastrous stint as a centre-back, so this award goes to a player who was truly rotten, the French Charlie Adam, Jerome Rothen

Moment of the Season
Many of the judging panel put forward Steven Craig's goal, but having already given Craig goal of the season, methinks we need to give the award to someone else. As mentioned before, Wayne Rooney has had a magnificent season, one of the high points coming back in January. Carling Cup Semi-Final, 2nd Leg. A pulsating Manchester derby was set to go to extra time, until Ryan Giggs swung a cross over from the right. Up leapt the boy Rooney infront of the Stretford End and BANG! Some of the judging panel were at the game, and experienced what was by far the best atmosphere at Old Trafford for many, many years. The blue-blooded noisy neighbours had been well and truly silenced. Fook off back to Stockport

Stat of the Season
From the Sids 2010: In Feburary, Catalan hospitals reported a 45% increase in the birthrate- exactly 9 months after Andres Iniesta's last-minute goal that took Barcelona into the Champions League Final

Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group G

2010-06-09T19:05:00.002+01:00

This looks set to be one of the most interesting, and high-scoring, groups of the World Cup. Brazil are, along with Spain, favourites to lift the trophy on July 11. They should qualify comfortably from a group that also contains their B team (Portugal), Sven Goran Eriksson's Ivory Coast, and Kim Jong-Il's North Korea.

Brazil
Dunga's outfit topped the South American qualification section, and won last summer's Confederations Cup in South Africa. Their array of attacking talent is as impressive as ever- Sevilla frontman Luis Fabiano will lead the line, with midfield support likely to come from Benfica's industrious wideman Ramires on the right, Robinho on the left and Kaka in the middle in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with backup being provided in the form of Elano, Julio Baptista and Nilmar- Lyon forward Michel Bastos, who has been deputising at left-back, could also be pushed back into his natural position. But this Brazil team lacks the flair, the joie de vivre, the kamikaze attacking instincts of previous Brazilian sides. Dunga, very much a destroyer himself, will send his side out with 2 defensive midfielders in Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo- both players' remit does not extend into the opposing half, and neither has the range of passing to be able to open the game up. Expect Maicon to get the nod at right-back over Dani Alves to provide an extra outlet on the right, but no-one has made the left-back position their own. Expect them to be solid in defence nonetheless- Inter's Julio Cesar has established himself as 1st choice, and, unusually for Brazilian keepers, he's actually good, although he's a slight inury doubt for the start of the tournament. Should he miss out, Spurs' Heurelho Gomes has proved himself to be an able deputy. They should progress comfortably enough from this group (the quality of the opposition they face is not of a sufficient standard to turn them over), however they could struggle to break down a side who can contain their front 4. They also face a probable 2nd round match against a Chile side who could simply outscore them, or even worse Spain.

Portugal
It's unfair to describe this lot as Cristiano Ronaldo + 10 others. After all, they have a top-class goalkeeper in Eduardo of Sporting Braga, the defence features Chelsea pair Paulo Ferreira and Ricardo Carvalho, Porto's midfield anchorman Raul Meireles.....you know what, this is just Cristiano Ronaldo + 10 others. Coach Carlos Queiroz struggled to get the best out of Ronaldo during qualifying, with CR9 scoring a total of 0 times as Portugal limped through qualifying, needing a play-off victory over Bosnia. There are doubts over the fitness over Real Madrid central defender Pepe (who has been bewilderingly deployed in midfield), and, Ronaldo besides, there is a dearth of top-class players. Queiroz's attacking options were further limited this week with Nani being ruled out of the tournament after injuring himself performing an acrobatic overhead kick in training (no, really)- add to this concerns over the fading influence of Deco (against Brazil, Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo will surely have him for breakfast) and, Ronaldo apart, a lacklustre front line (apart from THAT howitzer of a free-kick for Porto against Inter a few years back, Hugo Almeida has done little of note), and an earlyish exit beckons. It's hard to see them getting beyond the last 16

Ivory Coast
The Sven Goran Eriksson World Tour makes its latest stop-off with Ivory Coast for this summer, before a probable move to a biggish European club. His squad arrive in South Africa after a poor showing in the African Nations Cup earlier this year, having been knocked out in the quarter-finals by a so-so Algeria side. Eriksson has had little time to stamp his authority on a side that possesses real strength and quality in some positions, but is desperately lacking in others, so much so that Hibs centre-back Souleymane Bamba is a likely starter alongside Kolo Toure. Behind a positionally clueless, foul-o-matic clown and Souleymane Bamba is Boubacar Barry, who has looked out of his depth at this level. The midfield is strong defensively and physically, with Didier Zokora and Yaya Toure among the best in La Liga, however there is a real lack of creativity- while Zokora and Toure are both excellent at winning the ball and are competent ball-carriers, neither of them have an extensive passing range. In attack, much (if not all) depends on the fitness of Didier Drogba- while the likes of Kader Keita, Salomon Kalou, Aruna Dindane and Gervinho can all play just off a frontman (or as wide attackers in a 4-3-3), none of them can lead the line with the physicality and hold-up ability of Drogba. With Drogba likely to miss what looks like being the crucial opening game against Portugal, the Ivorians may suffer a similar fate as they did in 2006, where a strong, well-fancied team were drawn in a "Group of Death" with Holland and Argentina, and were edged out.

North Korea
Underdogs? Yes. Underestimated? For sure. North Korea have been written off as mere cannon fodder, set for a gubbing in all 3 games. They have already gone down in World Cup folklore for their fantastically audacious attempt to increase their attacking options at the World Cup by registering striker Kim Myong-Won as their 3rd goalkeeper. They came through almost 2 years of qualifying matches to get to the tournament, conceding just 5 goals in the process. Their draw is undeniably tough, although facing such strong sides may actually help them: during qualifying, even against lesser lights such as Turkmenistan and Saudi Arabia, coach Kim Jong-Hun set his side out with 5 across the back, looking to utilise striker Jong Tae-Se's pace and power on the counterattack. Against sides with the attacking prowess of Brazil and Portugal, Shifty's Coaching Manual states that the best way to neutralise attack-minded sides is to station 9 or 10 men deep, behind the ball. There will be no expectations or criticisms of the side from home (dissent isn't generally tolerated by Kim Jong-Il), and so anything they get will be a bonus. The team have been together for longer than any other in South Africa (domestic-based players, which is most of them, have been given the last few months off league duty to prepare as a national squad) and have a great spirit about them. Recent friendly results have been encouraging (including a 2-2 draw against fellow qualifiers, and disciples of defensive play, Greece) and, should Kim Jong-Il allow it, many players will harbour aspirations of a move to Europe (North Korean- Russian diplomatic relations are said to be good). They may well struggle to avoid being tonked by Brazil in their opening game but, as long as they can bounce back from that, an off-colour Portugal and a Drogba-less Ivory Coast could be in for a nasty shock. You have not seen the last of North Korea

The bets for Group G:
Brazil to win 9 group stage points: best price 13/5 with Bodog
North Korea to qualify for round 2: best price 16/1 with bwin

Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group F

2010-06-08T18:56:00.002+01:00

Reigning champions Italy are favourites to progress, with the other 2nd round place likely to be a straight fight between Paraguay and Slovakia, with New Zealand coach Ricki Herbert freely admitting his side are happy just to be in South Africa

Italy
After stepping down for Euro 2008, World Cup-winning coach Marcello Lippi has stuck faith with much of the side that triumphed in Germany in 2006- as many as 9 of the team that won the World Cup are likely starters this time round, which has its pluses and minuses: one of the main strengths of that side was their mental strength and resilience; Lippi created a siege mentality within the squad in the wake of the Calciopoli scandal. However, even back then some of the side seemed past their best, and their likely starting line-up contains 7 players over 30. There are concerns about a lack of mobility in a central midfield likely to contain 2 of those 30-somethings, namely Andrea Pirlo and Gennaro Gattuso, around whom doubts surround; Pirlo has been struggling with a calf injury, while Gattuso is no longer a 1st-choice at AC Milan, and hasn't had much match practice this season. At the back, while Gigi Buffon is one of the very best keepers in the world, there are doubts about the rest of the defence. Fabio Cannavaro has had a woeful season for Juventus (who have now released him. After the World Cup, he's off to the Middle East for some nice petrodollars) and AC Milan full-back is another of the over 30s and looks it. Lippi has at least replaced Marco Materazzi, although his replacement Giorgio Chiellini hasn't fully convinced- it will be interesting to see if Lippi puts in one or both of promising younger options Leonardo Bonucci and Domenico Criscito. Back in 2006, Lippi recognised his lack of a truly top-class centre-forward, and thus decided to take an arsenal of 6 attackers, all with different qualities, a decision that paid dividends. He has adopted a similar approach this time. The forward line features the goalscoring instincts of Alberto Gilardino and Gianpaolo Pazzini, the workrate and industry of Marco Borriello, Serie A's top scorer Antonio Di Natale, the physical presence of Vincenzo Iaquinta and the unpredictablility of Fabio Quagrialella. Providing Lippi's team can provide service to whichever 2 or 3 start in attack, they should progress comfortably, although they may struggle to make an impression beyond that

Paraguay
Argentinian coach Gerardo Martino's side qualified impressively for their 4th consecutive World Cup. They boast an impressive array of attacking talent, even without striker Salvdor Cabanas, who was shot in the head (no, really) in January; Benfica's Oscar Cardozo is set to be partnered by 1 or 2 from Man City benchwarmer Roque Santa Cruz, Dortmund striker Nelson Valdez or Pachuca's Edgar Benitez. And then there's the man this writer is tipping to make a big impact this summer, Valdez's strike partner at Dortmund, Lucas Barrios. Argentinian-born Barrios only received his Paraguayan citizenship earlier this year, but has already found the new for Martino's side in warm-up games, after a fantastic first season in Germany. He too is in contention to start with Cardozo. The problems for Paraguay, however, lie in midfield and defence. If Martino wants to go with 3 of his strikers upfront, then he'll have to swith to 4-3-3, a formation that Paraguay struggled with during qualifying- Martino may yet go 4-4-2 and use Barrios as an impact sub. The defence, which features Sunderland centre-back Paulo Da Silva, is solid enough alongisde the experienced Julio Cesar Caceres, however behind them 5ft 10 keeper Justo Villar is suspect at crosses. They do, though, have sufficient firepower to get them into round 2

Slovakia
This is their first appearance at a World Cup as an independent nation. They took great pride in defeating the Czech Republic in qualifying, and sealed top spot in Group 3 with a 1-0 win away to Poland. They have some highly-rated individuals- Martin Skrtel and Vladimir Weiss Jr (Vladimir Weiss Sr is the coach, and represented Czechosolvakia at Italia 90) both have Premier League experience, while talented Napoli playmaker Marek Hamsik captains the side at the tender age of 22. The squad is a young one- their provisional 30-man squad contained only 5 players into their 30s- with much of the focus being on Hamsik. There is no doubting Hamsik's ability, and he may well find himself moving on to an even bigger stage after the World Cup, but can he lead his side to round 2, particularly given doubts over Skrtel's fitness? They may just fall short

New Zealand
With the recent seismic shift in the Earth's surface that resulted in Australia becoming part of Asia, the Oceania qualifying section suddenly became New Zealand's to lose. They managed to see off the collective might of New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Vanderreal and Bahrain to make it to their first World Cup since 1982. I may have made one of those teams up. Expect Ricki Herbert's side to go with 4-4-2 or 4-5-1, with hard-as-nails Blackburn centre-back Ryan Nelsen captaining the side. While they lack the ability to seriously challenge for a place in round 2, they will look to threaten from set pieces, while they are industrious and hard-working. It's difficult to see them managing even 1 point from their 3 games against superior side, but they won't embarass themselves

The bets for Group F:
Italy to win Group F: best price 8/15 with Blue Square
Paraguay top goalscorer Oscar Cardozo: best price 4/1 with bet365
Slovakia to win 3 group points: best price 10/3 with Blue Square
New Zealand to score over 1.5 goals: best price 4/5 with bwin

Shifty's World Cup Preivew: Group E

2010-06-06T14:53:00.003+01:00

Despite uncertainty surrounding an injury to Arjen Robben, Holland are much-fancied to do well, and should progress from this group. They are unlikely to be challenged by any of ther other 3 teams in the group; a Cameroon side who seem over-reliant on Samuel Eto'o, Morten Olsen's Denmark and a Japan side looking to improve on a disappointing 2006 World Cup.

Holland
As they do at most tournaments, Holland go into this World Cup as one of the favourites, with an execptionally talented squad at their disposal. However, in previous tournaments, in-fighting and defensive liabilities (not so much liabilities as deciding not to bother with it) have cost them the chance to add to their 1 tournament triumph from Euro 88. Coach Bert van Marwijk has sought to address both of those failings- they won all 8 of their qualifying matches, conceding just 2 goals in the process- the players also talk of a much better team spirit within the camp. They have looked impressive in their build-up to the tournament, putting 4 past Ghana and 6 past Hungary, indeed the only negative from the Hungary match was an injury to Robben. Should Robben make it, then he is expected to line up on the left wing in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Wesley Sneijder and Dirk Kuyt also operating behind Robin van Persie. If not, then van Marwijk has a number of options- he could replace Robben on the left wing with Rafael van der Vaart, Eljero Elia, Ibrahim Afellay or Ryan Babel, or move van Persie to left-wing and bring in Klaas-Jan Huntelaar at centre-forward. Behind them, Mark van Bommel will kick most things that come his way, with Nigel de Jong alongside him, although van der Vaart could come into that position if van Marwijk is looking for extra creativity. In defence, Feyenoord's Giovanni van Bronckhorst is still an international-class left-back at the age of 35 (incidentally, he shares his birthday (albeit 10 years apart) with the man he could possibly be marking in the quarter-finals, Cristiano Ronaldo), while at right-back Ajax youngster Gregory van der Wiel has come in, allowing van Marwijk to shift Johnny Heitinga into central defence alongside Hamburg's Joris Mathijsen, while Maarten Stekelenburg has taken over from Edwin van der Sar in goals. All things considered, they have all they great attacking talent of previous great Dutch sides, with an improved defence and team spirit. They are very much a force to be reckoned with in South Africa

Cameroon
Paul Le Guen (remember him, Rangers fans?) took charge of a struggling Cameroon side last summer and turned the team's fortunes around to get them to South Africa, before a disappointing showing in the African Nations Cup in which they became over-reliant on Samuel Eto'o before being knocked out by Egypt in the quarter-finals. There's no doubting the qualities of Eto'o (to abbreviate that to "his qualities" would have resulted in apostrophe overload, however it's difficult to see where the service to him is going to come from- aside from Betis midfielder Achille Emana, there's no real creativity in the side. Defensively they are sound- Carlos Kameni is one of Africa's best keepers, in defence Monaco's Nicolas N'Koulou is a real talent capable of playing anywhere along the back 4, and Arsenal's Alex Song offers extra protection in defensive midfield, but, without anyone in attack to help out Eto'o, they'll do well to make it out of the group

Denmark
The Danes qualified impressively ahead of Portugal and Sweden, with a strong blend of youth and experience- talented youngsters such as Simon Kjaer in central defence and Nicklas Bendtner upfront have established themselves as key players in a side otherwise containing players the wrong side of 30, which could be both an asset and a liability. In goals, Thomas Sorensen has carried his club form with Stoke onto the international stage, while Christian Poulsen will anchor the midfield. However, on the flanks Olsen looks set to start with 2 from Jesper Gronkjaer, Martin Jorgensen and Dennis Rommedahl, all of whom are into their 30s, and have lost the best of their pace. Given that Olsen's sides have traditionally favoured attacking from the wings, and that the only natural playmaker in the squad, 18-year-old Christian Eriksen, is unlikely to be put in from the start, they may struggle to create chances for Bendtner and Soren Larsen in attack. They are unlikely to threaten an on-form Holland side, but may just have the edge over Cameroon and Japan to take them into round 2

Japan
This will be only Japan's 4th appearance at the World Cup- their 2006 showing was a real disappointment as they crashed out in the group stage, failing to push on from their 2002 showing on home soil, where they reached round 2. Coach Takeshi Okada (who has set his team a target of reaching the semi-finals) retook the reins of the national team from Ivica Osim in 2007, and has built a technically sound side, who keep the ball well- midfielders Keisuke Honda of CSKA Moscow and Makoto Hasebe of Wolfsburg add Champions League experience, and, as England found out in their recent warm-up match, centre-backs Yuji Nakazawa and naturalised Brazilian Marcus Tulio Tanaka are both a threat from set-pieces. They do, however, lack an out-and-out goalscorer to strike fear into the hearts of the Dutch, Cameroonian and Danish defences, a problem they also had in 2006. If they can find goals from elsewhere in the team, however, then they'll be in contention with Cameroon and Denmark to sneak into round 2

The bets for Group E:
Holland to score 10 or more goals: best price 17/10 with totesport
Cameroon top scorer Samuel Eto'o: best price 7/4 with Paddy Power
Denmark to win 4 group points: best price 3/1 with bet365
Japan to reach the semi-finals: best price 66/1 with bwin

Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group H

2010-06-05T19:40:00.004+01:00

Apologies, readers, for not doing the groups in order: I'm skipping past groups E, F and G until we hear more definite news about the injuries to Arjen Robben, Andrea Pirlo and Didier Drogba respectively. For now, let's plod on with Group H. Spain are overwhelming favourites to top the group ahead of an exciting, adventurous young Chile side and Central American outsiders Honduras. Oh, and Switzerland have qualified again.

Spain
They go into every tournament with a talented squad and many people saying this is their year before failing around about the quarter-finals, but this time could well be different. Firstly, they have a frankly preposterous record in their last 47 games of 44-2-1, which is most certainly championship-winning form. Secondly, the side is largely settled, with most of the starting 11 the same as Euro 2008, but with enough newcomers such as Pedro and Jesus Navas emerging in (and on) the wings to keep the first XI on their toes. But perhaps most importantly of all is that this side, and these players, are winners. Spain have used Euro 2008 as a springboard and come into this tournament full of confidence. Significantly, many of the side's players have also tasted major success with their clubs. They should sail through this group and are, along with Brazil, the pre-tournament favourites to win the competition, a billing they can live up to

Chile
Expect Marcelo Bielsa's young, adventurous side to be one of the more entertaining sides to watch during the tournament. Bielsa is likely to send his team out in a 3-3-1-3 formation, with Sporting CP playmaker Matias Fernandez playing just behind a 3-man frontline that is likely to include ex-Liverpool winger Mark Gonzalez on the left, and thereby proving tht he and Fabio Aurelio are, in actual fact, 2 different people. Livewire Udinese frontman Alexis Sanchez is set to feature on the right, with Zaragoza centre-forward Humberto Suazo through the middle. Many of Bielsa's current squad featured in the 2007 Under 20 World Cup, where Chile finished 3rd. In that tournament, it was the 3-3-1-3 formation that brought them success, and as long as their talented youngsters perform again, Chile should progress from this group

Honduras
The Central American minnows are making their 1st appearance at the World Cup since 1982, and have only just made it now. They struggled to make it to 3rd place, and even that required the USA nicking a late draw against Costa Rica. They do have a few individuals playing in the Premier League, namely Wigan pair Maynor Figueroa and Hendry Thomas, alongwith Thomas' central midfield partner Wilson Palacios of Tottenham, but apart from that the team looks decidedly mediocre. They may not even be that attractive to watch, with coach Reinaldo Rueda likely to favour a cautiosu approach- it's difficult to see them finiishing anywhere other than bottom of this group

Switzerland
Ottmar Hitzfeld's side have qualified again, but were far from convincing during their qualifying campaign: indeed, their qualifying campaign featured the standout result of qualifying: Switzerland 1 Luxembourg 2. The side is solid if unspectacular, although a crop of talented youngsters are beginning to emerge- they won the Under-17 World Championship last year, though this tournament will be too soon for the players involved to make it into Hitzfeld's squad. There are question marks over centre-back Philippe Senderos' lack of match practice this season, and they lack a top-class goalscorer- it's therefore difficult to see them making round 2

The bets for Group H
Spain to win 9 points: best price 6/4 general
Chile to score over 4.5 group stage goals: best price 13/10 with bwin
Honduras group finishing position 4th: best price 4/7 with Sportingbet
Switzerland to win 3 group points: best price 10/3 general

Shifty's End of Season Awards: Goal of the Season

2010-06-05T13:09:00.002+01:00

Right, I thought I'd take a bit of time out from the World Cup previews to bring y'all the Shifty's Last Word End of Season Awards. Our crack team of judges are still deliberating over the rest of the awards, but we've decided to throw the Goal of the Season Award over to the masses. Here's a selection of goals that have stood out for our panel this season. Post a comment with yer vote either here or on Facebook

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEB3jB5dMHI&feature=related Andrei ARSHAVIN
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K2BH3dklJo&feature=related Steven CRAIG
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bx16iOUQn8A Arjen ROBBEN
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byK2oBB_ucQ Lukas JUTKIEWICZ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnBIU54iHR8 Karim BENZEMA

Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group D

2010-05-30T15:18:00.004+01:00

Germany will be expected to progress from this group ahead of 3 closely-matched sides: Serbia will be taking part in their 1st World Cup on their own, while Ghana and Australia will both be looking to equal their achievements in 2006 of making the 2nd round

Germany
Regardless of form, fitness of key players, etc, they always seem to be there or there abouts, and Jogi Loew's side look like contenders again. While the loss of captain Michael Ballack is an obvious blow, Bastian Schweinsteiger has reinvented himself this season from temperamental, flaky wideman into central midfield powerhouse, and will be expected to thrive in central midfield, with Stuttgart midfielder Sami Khedira his most likely partner, with Werder Bremen stars Mesut Ozil and Marko Marin offering creativity and thrust. Upfront, despite indifferent club form, Mario Gomez, Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski can all be relied upon for the Nationalmannschaft, with relative newcomers Stefan Kiessling, Cacau and Thomas Muller also likely to travel as backup. In defence, Loew has confirmed that Schalke keeper Manuel Neuer will be his 1st choice, ahead of Tim Wiese and Hans-Jorg Butt. Infront of Neuer is a defence which conceded just 5 goals during qualifying- in Ballack's absence, Philipp Lahm has taken the captain's armband, and he's likely to start at left-back, with Arne Friedrich or Andreas Beck at right back. In central defence, Per Mertesacker has matured into one of Europe's best centre-backs, with his partner likely to be Heiko Westermann. They do appear to be hitting some kind of form right now, and have plenty of options in attack- they should do well in South Africa, and can never be ruled out as potential winners

Serbia
Raddy Antic's side qualified impressively, finishing ahead of France, but Antic will have a number of concerns about his side going into the World Cup:

1st choice goalkeeper Vladimir Stojkovic hasn't played much football this season. Out of favour at Sporting CP, he went on loan to Wigan in January, but only made a handful of appearances for Roberto Martinez's men, and didn't exctly convince in those
Star striker Nikola Zigic is another player who has been short of match action this season, with David Villa keeping him out of the Valencia side (admittedly, he can't really have too many complaints abouth that)
At 31, Dejan Stankovic is starting to get on a bit (this, incidentally, will be his 3rd World Cup for a 3rd different country). His pace has already faded to such an extent that he's been used by Inter in a much deeper role this season. It remains to be seen how he will cope with a World Cup playing possibly 7 more games after playing 43 games for Inter this season
Their most recent warm-up match was a disaster, losing 1-0 to New Zealand. The travelling Serbian fans were so disgruntled with their side that The Great Leader Nemanja Vidic had to address them on the stadium PA system to calm them down. They obeyed

Given all these concerns, and throw in the fact that, Zigic apart, there's a lack of strength in depth in attack, and it's certainly possible that Serbia could fail to make it out of their group. However, given the weaknesses of the other 2 nations in the group, they should just make the 2nd round, and a probable meeting with England

Australia
Little has changed with Australia since their last-16 exit in 2006- coach Guus Hiddink has been replaced by his compatriot Pim Verbeek, and many of the players from 2006 are still in the squad- Mark Schwarzer will still be in goals, his defence will still most likely contain the likes of Patrick Kisnorbo, Lucas Neill, Scott Chipperfield and Craig Moore, while the midfield should still feature Brett Emerton, Vince Grella and Tim Cahill, with Harry Kewell operating on the left of a 3 man strikeforce. The crux of this is that most of those players are now the wrong side of 30- Verbeek's squad is short of strikers, too, and he risked alienating some of those players with his criticism of Grella and Cahill's tackling in their warm-up game against New Zealand. They look likely to miss out on repeating their 2006 exploits

Ghana
Like Australia, they made the last 16 in 2006, but like Australia, they look ill-equipped to progress. Losing Michael Essien is a massive blow, but the team looks suspect even with him there. In goals, there are doubts over Richard Kingson's fitness- should he miss out, there is no experienced back-up option for coach Milovan Rajevac. Defensively they look fairly sound, and while Essien will be absent, Sulley Muntari will add thrust and dynamism to the midfield. They do, however, struggle to score goals- in 5 matches during the African Nations Cup, they managed just 4 goals, and if they fail to improve on this, then they're going home

Bets for Group D:

Germany to win Group D: best price 10/11 with Blue Square. This is an insanely good price. Get on it people
Serbia Top Goalscorer Milos Krasic: best price 12/1 with Skybet
Australia to finish bottom of Group D: best price 11/8 with Blue Square
Ghana to score under 3.5 goals: best price 3/5 with bwin

Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group C

2010-05-23T14:39:00.003+01:00

This group looks fairly clear-cut: England, widely fancied as potential winners of the tournament, will be expected to progress along with an ever-improving USA side, ahead of a Slovenia team short on creativity and top-level experience, and an inconsistent Algeria side

England
Even by English standards, there is much hype about Fabio Capello's team, after they qualified with relative ease. Capello has brought discipline to the team, and has also managed to shoehorn Lampard and Gerrrd into the same team. Of his 30-man squad, it will be interesting to see who makes the final 23-man squad, to see if potential wildcards such as Adam Johnson, Darren Bent and Joe Cole, along with the injury-prone Ledley King, are retained. In the group, one of the bets I'll be recommending will be for them to finish on 7 points- this would require one of the following 3 possibilities to happen:

The USA stun a lacklustre England and claim a draw from their opening game
Over-confident after beating USA, England take their foot off the gas and slip to a draw with Algeria
Having already qualified after winning their first 2 games, Capello makes wholesale changes for the final game against Slovenia and a reserve side can only manage a draw

Of course, there is a chance that, should all 3 of the above happen, Capello's side could face an embarassing early exit, but that is extremely unlikely. More likely is a semi-final exit at the hands of Holland or Brazil

USA
Last year's run to the Confederations Cup final confirmed the USA's status as an emerging force in world football, with an incredibly hard-working and industrious side knocking out Spain along the way. The squad contains a number of players plying their trade at the highest level in Europe, among them established Premier League players Tim Howard, Clint Dempsey and Jonathan Spector- remember also Landon Donovan's successful loan spell at Everton earlier this season. However, their results since the Confederations Cup have been inconsistent, and after a strong showing in 2002, they then flopped at the 2006 World Cup. Still, they should get through the group, although that may be as far as they get, with their 2002 conquerors Germany potentially awaiting them in the 2nd round.

Algeria
The Desert Foxes have qualified for the first time since 1986, and coach Rabah Saadane, who led them to Mexico bck then, is in charge once again. They have some talented individuals, namely Wolfsburg's Karim Ziani and Portsmouth pair Hassan Yebda and Nadir Belhadj, but have displayed some staggering inconsistency in the last 12 months; their 1-0 playoff win over Egypt that earned them their place in South Africa last autumn was then followed by a 4-0 loss against the same nation in the African Nations earlier this year, a tournament in which they reached the semi-finals despite an early 3-0 loss to Malawi. In that match, Saadane experimented with a 3-5-2 formation, which has since been abandoned for 4-4-2, with veteran playmaker Rafik Saifi likely to play just off a lone frontman. However, it's hard to see them progressing from the group, given their inconsistency, and also due to the lack of a convincing goalkeeper

Slovenia
This nation of just 2 million people has qualified for only its 2nd World Cup, beating a much-fancied Russia side in the play-offs. Expect Matjaz Kek's side to line up in a fairly standard 4-4-2 formation, with Bochum forward Zlatko Dedic running the frontline playing off targetman Milivoje Novakovic of FC Koln. They will most likely be well-organised and able to keep hold of the ball, but lack a creative edge to help create chances for Dedic and Novakovic, and as such it's unlikely that they'll be providing too much trouble for the defences of the stronger teams

The bets for Group C:

England to win 7 points: best price 11/5 with Bodog
USA stage of elimination 2nd round: best price 13/8 with bet365
Algeria to finish bottom of Group C: best price 11/10 with expekt.com
Slovenia top goalscorer Zlatko Dedic: best price 10/3 with Skybet

Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group B

2010-05-21T20:23:00.002+01:00

Much has been written about Argentina under Diego Maradona, but they still arrive in South Africa as one of the contenders for the trophy, despite being widely written off due to some of Maradona's selection decisions. Of the other 3 teams in the group, Nigeria would appear to be Argentina's closest challengers ahead of a dour Greece side and a South Korea side who look a shadow of the side who memorably made the semi-finals in 2002

Argentina
A chaotic qualifying campaign and a somewhat scattergun selection policy were the hallmarks of the beginning of Maradona's stint in charge, but in recent months there seems to be a more settled look to the side, even if some of the selection decisions Maradona has made for his finals squad are nothing short of baffling (the previously unheralded Ariel Garce and Juan Mercier, along with 36-year-old Martin Palermo in; 136-cap Javier Zanetti, Gabriel Milito, Esteban Cambiasso and Lisandro Lopez out). In goals, Mardona's decision to trust AZ Alkmaar rookie Sergio Romero in goals has been an inspired one- he'll be protected by, in Diego's own words, 4 centre-backs (this his reasoning behind leaving out Zanetti)- infront of them will be Javier Mascherano, so while it may not be pretty, expect Argentina not to concede many goals. Going forward, the last person you would expect to see in central midfield would most likely be ex-Manchester United flop/"F***ing superb player" Juan Sebastian Veron- so you'll never guess who Maradona's gone and picked next to Mascherano. Yep, Seba Veron- he hasn't got the legs these days, but can still pass a ball. Upfront, Argentina have a wealth of attacking options- Messi, Aguero (Maradona's son-in-law, by the way), Tevez, Milito, Palermo, Pastore and Lavezzi to name but 7- providing they can work together, Maradona could well become only the 2ndmn, after Franz Beckenbaur, to win the World Cup as player and manager- now that would make for an eventful press conference

Nigeria
The Super Eagles have qualified once again, and seem to have fostered a better team spirit and are better organised under Swedish coach Lars Lagerback. In Vincent Enyeama, they have one of Africa's best goalkeepers, and he has infront of him a strong defence that was the backbone of their progress to the semi-finals of the African Nations Cup earlier this year. Infront of them they have the likes of Dickson Etuhu and John Obi Mikel, who while offering tenacity, do lack creativity, a problem replicated throughout the team- Lagerback's concern won't be with the ability of Yakubu and Obafemi Martins, it will be who will create chances for them. However, as long as they can keep themselves together as a team, they should progress from the group

South Korea
Semi-finalists in 2002, but have been a shadow of that side since then, failing to get out of their group in 2006. Coach Huh Jung-Moo's side contain a handful of survivors from 2002, amongst them 37-year-old goalkeeper Lee Woon-Jae. Going forward, they do have some quality- another 2002 survivor, Park Ji-Sung is one of their "Fab Four" of attacking players, also including Celtic's Ki Sung Yong, Bolton's Lee Chung-Yong and Park Chu-Young of Monaco- and based on their qualifying campaign and subsequent friendlies, scoring goals won't be an issue. However, it is the defence where there are concerns- they haven't had a stable central defensive pairing, and they have shown a worrying fondness for conceding goals at set pieces. If Huh Jung-Moo cannot correct this, then they're going home early

Greece
Was the word in 2004, but has since been replaced by The Bird. Veteran German coach Otto Rehhagel is still in charge and the football is still pretty dreadful- not much has changed since their triumphant showing in 2004, and their less triumphant showing in 2008. Expect them to be robust, physical and a threat from set pieces (watch out South Korea), and don't be surprised if Rehhagel opts for a back 3 (or 5), although one can assume that, even if they manage to make it out of the group, the Greek FA won't exactly be liberal with their bonuses. Panathinaikos youngster Sotiris Ninis has been tipped as a star of the future, and if the defence behind him remains solid, he could create the chances for the likes of Fanis Gekas, Georgios Samaras and Angelos Charisteas (scorer of the winner in the EURO 2004 final) to fire the Greeks into the 2nd round

The bets for Group B:
Argentina to win Group B: best price 5/11 with expekt.com
Nigeria to win 4 points: best price 3/1 with Paddy Power
South Korea top goalscorer Park Chu-Young: best price 5/1 with Betfred
Greece stage of elimination 2nd round: best price 11/4 with sportingbet

Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group A

2010-05-20T19:05:00.002+01:00

Right, time for me to start looking forward to the World Cup, with kick-off in South Africa just 3 weeks away. Between now and then, I'll be going through each group individually with this blog's usual mix of statistical-based analysis and witty banter, with Graeme hopefully weighing in with his tuppence worth along the way

Group A
This looks like being a surprisingly open group, with a below-par France up against hosts South Africa, an ever-improving Mexico and a Uruguay side containing a number of individuals playing at the highest level in Europe

France
After a disastrous EURO 2008, the question everyone was asking was "Who will replace Raymond Domenech as coach?" The answer was, er, Raymond Domenech (although Laurent Blanc takes over after the tournament). France were unconvincing to say the least in qualifying, only making it through by their fingertips. Domenech has again made some baffling selection decisions (Samir Nasri and Karim Benzema didn't even make the final 30, while Andre-Pierre Gignac did) and there's still a great deal of uncertainty in some positions (William Gallas has yet to find a regular central defensive patner, while the identity of their main striker is anyone's guess). If they don't get going quickly, then another embarassing group-stage exit beckons

South Africa
World Cup host ntions have traditionally performed well in their home tournaments, but South Africa aren't being considered as potential winners by anyone outside the most optimistic branches of their own, vuvuzela-playing support. A look at their squad reveals a distinct lack of experience at the highest level (only 5 of their squad play in one of Europe's strongest leagues), and coaching changes, along with mixed friendly results, have not helped their cause. Still, they were impressive in last summer's Confederations Cup, reaching the semi-finals, and are arguably best-placed to sneak into the 2nd round if either France or Mexico slip up

Mexico
Javier Aguirre returned to the helm after Sven-Goran Eriksson's disastrous tenure as coach came to an end, and has led the team to a 5th consecutive World Cup- they went out in the 2nd round in each of the last 4 tournaments, so the target for Aguirre's men is simple: the quarter-finals are the target. With an increasing number of players plying their trade in Europe (one to watch: left-winger Andres Guardado) and plenty of options in attack (soon-to-be Manchester United centre-forward Javier Hernandez among them) supported by a strong defence (although doubts linger over Rafael Marquez's match fitness), Aguirre's side are well-equipped to advance from the group stage- finishing top will be of importance to Mexico so as to avoid a likely meeting with Argentina, their conquerors after extra-time in 2006 (y'all must surely remember THAT Maxi Rodriguez goal), in the 2nd round

Uruguay
The last time Uruguay got beyond the group stages of the World Cup (Italia 90), their manager was one Oscar Washington Tabarez. Back in 2006, Tabarez returned to the fold, and led Uruguay to South Africa, but only just- they needed to play-off victory over Costa Rica after finishing 5th in the South American qualifying group. In attack they do have some quality individuals, most notably Diego Forlan, Luis Suarez and Nicolas Lodeiro, while behind them expect the usual "physical" stuff from Uruguay. It's a style unlikely to make them many friends, and it's unlikely to see them get past the group stage

So that's the tems in group A, here's a few bets worth thinking about in Group A:
France to win 4 points: best price 4/1 with Bodog
Mexico stage of elimination- quarter-finals: best price 11/2 with bet365
Soth Africa top goalscorer Teko Modise: best price 12/1 with Skybet
Uruguay group goals scored lass than goals conceded: best price 20/19 with bwin

Shifty's Season Review Part 4

2010-05-14T12:34:00.002+01:00

Manchester United
What I Said: They have every reason to belive that they can claim a 4th European Cup and a 19th Premier League title. Expect Ben Foster to be gradually phased in as 1st choice goalkeeper
What Actually Happened: Missed out on both titles, with only the Carling Cup being successfully defended. Poor form early in the season pushed Foster out of contention for the England squad, and may lead to him being one of a number of players through the Old Trafford exit door this summer

Portsmouth
What I Said: With minimal investment in an already limited squad, expect Pompey to be near the bottom come January, and praying for another miraculous escape
What Actually Happened: The financial situation deteriorated to such an extent that Pompey became the first Premier League club to be placed into administration, with the subsequent 9-point deduction merely serving to confirm what already looked like certain relegation. They at least went down with a fight, with some decent end-of-season form giving them a glimmer of hope for the FA Cup Final

Stoke City
What I Said: It won't be pretty, and may require a couple more shrewd signings, but expect Stoke to survive again
What Actually Happened: Dear sweet Jeebus it wasn't pretty (just like Aaron Ramsey's leg), even with the addition of Tuncay, but Stoke comfortably survived, notching up 2 more points than they did last season. This is a crucial summer for Tony Pulis and his side- how much ambition do they have, now that they have established themselves in the league? Will they look to play some more stylish football next season?

Sunderland
What I Said: A talented midfield and forward line (with potential for further investment in the squad in January) suggests that mid-table is very much achievable
What Actually Happened: Finished 13th after a consistently inconsistent season. Darren Bent's goals (many of them 1st, as previously reported here) not only won this writer a fair wad of cash over the season, but also got him into Fabio Capello's initial 30 man squad for the World Cup. Just 2 away wins in the league all season, though, sugest that there is still work for Steve Bruce to do

Tottenham Hotspur
What I Said: Spurs shouldn't concede too many once again, while strength in depth in midfield and attack suggests that a top-half finish is where they're heading
What Actually Happened: A great season saw Harry Redknapp's side finish 4th. They're still a long way off the level of those sides ahead of them, and demonstrated some worrying inconsistencies particularly against the smaller teams in the league (Stoke, Hull, Wolves and Burnley all took points off them), but they showed plenty of admirable qualities in trumping Man City, Aston Villa and Liverpool in the race for 4th

West Ham
What I Said: A quiet summer on the transfer market demonstrating Zola's faith in some talented youngsters
What Actually Happened: Never got going, and ended up in a relegation battle they seemed ill-equipped for. The January signing of Ilan proved to be of paramount importance, as the Hammers would have been in even more bother (only goal difference would have kept them ahead of Burnley) than they already were- it could be credibly argued that they were only saved by having 3 teams below them who were, let's be honest, pretty terrible. Zola's dismissal came as no real surprise

Wigan and Wolves both stayed up without ever looking like doing much more, but both did it in completely different ways. While Wolves plundered just 32 goals all season, and were generally pretty poor to watch, Wigan at least gave us some entertainment, and some remarkable scorelines. Home victories over Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea were offset by some utter gubbings- three 4-0 losses (including one at Portsmouth!), a 5-0 loss at Old Trafford and of course 8-0 and 9-1 shellackings away at Chelsea and Spurs respectively

Shifty's Season Review Part 3

2010-05-13T12:21:00.002+01:00

Fulham
What I Said: Mid-table obscurity, 1 or 2 more reinforcements may be required in order to compete in the Premier League and Europa League- Bobby Zamora hast to improve on last season's tally of 2 league goals
What Actually Happened: 12th counts as mid-table obscurity I guess. They didn't half compete in the Europa League, though, making it all the way to the final. Zamora's improvement brought him to the verges of the England squad

Hull City
What I Said: They will need to start in a similar manner to last season if they are to survive- it will be fascinating to see how US striker Jozy Altidore adapts to the Premier League. Phil Brown will need to demonstrate all his managerial skills in order to keep the Tigers roaring in the Premier League
What Actually Happened: Went down not roaring, but with something of a whimper. Brown "relieved of his duties" in February, replaced by Elephant Man Iain Dowie. How did Altidore get on? 1 league goal, 1 red card

Liverpool
What I Said: There is an over-riding feeling that last season was their best chance to win the league in many years. And they blew it. Now with Xabi Alonso departed, and doubts over the strength in depth in attack, if injuries affect Torres and Gerrard, they could lose touch with the lead
What Actually Happened: 7th place is most definitely out of touch with the lead. By all accounts, a dreadful season for the bin dippers. A revamp of the squad appears necessary, regardless of who the manager is come August

Manchester City
What I Said: They have spent money as if it is going out of fashion, although their bid for the Death Star looks likely to fail. If Mark Hughes can get his team set up the way he wants, then anywhere from 7th upwards should be considered a success
What Actually Happened: Finished 5th. Lost 3 derbies in injury time. Hughes got the sack just before Christmas, for falling short of the club's stated projected points tally of 70. Lost 3 derbies in injury time. Brought in Roberto Mancini, who seemed awfully keen on playing 3 defensive midfielders. Lost 3 derbies in injury time. Ended the season on 67 points. Did I mention that they lost 3 derbies in injury time?

Shifty's Premier League Season Review Part 2

2010-05-11T12:30:00.002+01:00

Blackburn Rovers
What I Said: Didn't lose many games, playing a "pragmatic" style. If they can find a regular source of goals, mid-table beckons. Sam Allardyce's side have alos finished bottom of the disciplinary table in 4 of the last 5 seasons
What Actually Happened: Finished 10th, despite not having a single player reach double figures in the league. Even more surprisingly, though, they finished 8th in the disciplinary table. 2 fewer yellow cards and, if Fulham beat Atletico Madrid tomorrow night, they'd be in the Europa League!

Birmingham City
What I Said: Expect low-scoring, binary games. If they can keep a few clean sheets, they look the best-placed of the newly-promoted teams to stay up
What Actually Happened: Stayed up comfortably in 9th, after a 15-match unbeaten run during the winter. 20 of 38 games saw under 2.5 goals, with Joe Hart in goals keeping 10 clean sheets (Maik Taylor managed one against Man Citeh). Ran out of steam a bit near the end of the season, though- Alex Mcleish will need to strengthen in order to avoid the onset of Second-Season syndrome

Bolton Wanderers
What I Said: Should be safe from relegation, but hard to see them challenging for a top 10 place. Ho hum
What Actually Happened: Finished 14th after an unremarkable season. Ho hum

Burnley
What I Said: Much will depend on whether their veterans can cope with the demands of the Premier League. Any side travelling to Turf Moor not fully on their game can expect to be turned over- expect some open games, with over 2.5 goals a bet to be considered
What Actually Happened: 24 defeats from 38 games tells us that their veterans did not cope, depsite some early-season scalps being claimed at Turf Moor. 23 of 38 games saw over 2.5 goals

Chelsea
What I Said: Expect either the Premier League title, the Champions League, or Ancelotti to be sacked
What Actually Happened: Premier League title was won, Jose Mourinho came back to send them meekly out of the Champions League, and Ancelotti's job looks safe as. An ageing squad will need a bit of refreshing in order to challenge again, though. Any new signings should introduce John Terry to their wives with extreme caution

Everton
What I Said: They may struggle to match last season's 5th place without 1 or 2 additions, but should be close to that position. European success is the one thing lacking from David Moyes' CV if he is to be considered a credible successor to Sir Alex Ferguson
What Actually Happened: An atrocious start (losing 6-1 at home to Arsenal, going on 66-1) and rotten luck with injuries hampered Everton's start to the season, but a strong second half of the season saw them finish 8th- if Fulham win the Europa League, then they will qualify for the Europa League through the Fair Play League. You heard it here first. Look up the Premier League disciplinary table.

With the Premier League Season Almost Over...

2010-05-06T20:51:00.002+01:00

It's time to have a look back and see how my predictions for the season have fared. I've waded through this here blog's archives to dig out how I thought each team would get on this season, and will post them on here over then next couple of days. Here goes:

Arsenal

What I Said: If luck is on their side, they could come very close to the title:
What Actually Happened: Title challengers well into the spring before a late-season, Fabianski-inspired collapse left them in something of a no-man's land behind the top 2 but ahead of the madding, Champions League-chasing crowd

Aston Villa
What I Said: Departures from an already stretched squad could lead to a long, disappointing season, and Villa sliding down the table
What Actually Happened: Disappointment in the cups, but Villa have just about managed to hang onto the coat-tails of the top 4

Birmingham City:
What I Said: Likely to be dour and unambitious yet resolute and organised, look best placed of the newly promoted sides to stay up
What Actually Happened: ALex McLeish's side stayed up comfortably, with an excellent defensive record, albeit without many goals. Joe Hart's performances have surely earned him a place in the England squad for the World Cup

The rest will follow soon....

Election 2010

2010-05-05T12:43:00.003+01:00

So, most of the media outlets have declared who they're backing in the election tomorrow: The Guardian, a fine publication in this writer's opinion, have declared their backing for Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats (which does sound a bit like how band names used to sound, e.g. Iggy and the Stooges), while pretty much everyone else is backing the tories.

But one major publication has yet to declare its support for anyone, and although the tip would be to back a hung parliament, for this writer, this election is as simple as ABC.

Anyone But Conservative

Get into the tactical voting, folks. Labour defending a narrow majority against the tories? Vote Labour. Lib Dems targeting a tory seat? Vote Lib Dem. You get the idea

If you're after a bet, though, hung parliament is the way to go. Such a result would go a long way to explaining why the party leaders always look so happy

Weekend Betting Review

2010-04-25T20:45:00.004+01:00

Here's how my tips for y'all got on this weekend:

Wolves v Blackburn 0-0: 1 unit returns 0
Wolves v Blackburn under 2.5 goals @ 4/7: 1 unit returns 1.57
Sunderland to Beat Hull @ 9/4: 1 unit returns 3.25
Darren Bent 1st goalscorer @ 9/2: 1 unit returns 5.5
St Mirren v Kilmarnock under 2.5 goals @ 4/7: 1 unit returns 1.57
Aston Villa to beat Birmingham City @ 8/13: 1 unit returns 1.62
Burnley v Liverpool over 2.5 goals @ 4/6: 1 unit return 1.67

Total outlay: 7 units
Total return: 15.18 units
Total profit: 8.18 units
Return on investment: 216.857%

Tips for Sunday 25th April

2010-04-24T20:14:00.003+01:00

So, to follow up my Saturday tips, here are another couple for Sunday's games:

Aston Villa have found some form again at just the right time, winning 3 of their last 4, and should overcome a fading Birmingham City's side, whose season has tailed off somewhat in recent weeks, with Alex McLeish's side failing to win any of their last 7 games
Burnley have gone from being a team who had good home form but shipped bucketloads away to being a team who just ship bucketloads, and are unlikely to adopt a safety0first, cautious approach now that they know they must win all of their remaining games in order to have any chance of staying up. Their opponents are Liverpool, who are travel-sick in more ways than one- still awaiting their first away win in 2010, it remains to be seen what effect (if any) their unorthodox travel plans for their midweek European game will have had on them. They too will know that they must go all out for the win, in order to maintain any chance of finishing 4th. Even without Fernando Torres, they still carry a goal threat, particularly against Burnley's shaky defence, so this game could well see over 2.5 goals

Betting Tips for Saturday 24th April

2010-04-23T20:09:00.005+01:00

Firstly, Shifty and Graeme would like to apologise for the lack of activity on here this last week: this is mainly due to the after effects of consuming gallons of champagne, in celebration of the astonishing achievements of Ross County FC in getting to the Scottish Chup Final- apologies also for getting the preview of that game totally wrong. I said it would be close, but the small loss anyone following the blog may have suffered on that will have been more than offset by Don't Push It triumphing in the Grand National.

Onto this weekend:

Wolves v Blackburn has the look of being a particularly dreadful game of football. Wolves have drawn 3 of their last 4 games 0-0, and have managed just 10 goals at Molineux all season, with most of their better results coming away from home- witness their 3-1 win last month away at West Ham. While Mick McCarthy's men have struggled at home, Blackburn have been pretty dreadful away, with a 2-4-11 record, managing just 11 goals on the road, shipping 36. Although with Rovers safe, and Wolves nearly there, there is a chance both of these managers may take the shackles off their sides and go out to try and entertain, neither McCarthy or Sam Allardyce are known for being anything other than hoof-it merchants, and one suspects both would be quite happy with another 0-0 draw. Also, given their lack of potency (and both sides' improving defensive records), under 2.5 goals is certainly worth a shout
A regular favourite bet of this blog is Darren Bent 1st Goalscorer, and it's well worth backing again when Sunderland visit Hull. Iain Dowie's side are in dire straits, and not just because they're Iain Dowie's side- 3 points from safety (effectively 4 considering their wretched goal difference) with only 3 games to play, Hull need a drastic change in fortune in order to stay up, and it just does not look like it's coming- indeed, safe in mid-table, Sunderland are worth backing to pick up only their 2nd away win of the season
Down at the bottom of the SPL, St Mirren meet Kilmarnock in a relegation dogfight, and expect it to be exactly that- neither side score many goals (Kilmarnock's total in the SPL away from home this season: 4. That's 0.23 per game) and neither side are playing the most stylish stuff at the moment. Have a think about under 2.5 goals in this one as well

Shifty's Grand National Preview Part 4 of 4

2010-04-09T21:30:00.003+01:00

Well, I've given y'all a look at a few of the runners- here are my own bets that I've got on for the Grand National tomorrow. How much you take these into consideration is up to yourself, especially considering my record (Bets placed: 9. Bets won: 0. Bets lost: 9) at Cheltenham:

Eric's Charm each way (I seem to have a knack of picking horses who finish 2nd, so I'm going each-way on these first 4). 40/1 William Hill

Don't Push It each way. 20/1 William Hill

Madison du Berlais (a horse that this writer has had success backing before) each way. 50/1 William Hill

Mon Mome each way. 12/1 William Hill

Also, Beat the Boys is 100/1. Ross County to beat Celtic tomorrow are 10/1. A double of these 2, this writer has £2 on. Potential return: £2,222. Mon the County!

Celtic v Ross County, Saturday 10th April

2010-04-09T12:34:00.003+01:00

Part 4 of the Grand National Preview will follow tonight

My Thoughts
For Celtic, the Scottish Cup represents their only realistic chance of a trophy this season, and (the final Old Firm derby of the season aside) perhaps the only chance for Neil Lennon to stake his claim for the manager's job on a permanent basis. For Derek Adams' fine young Ross County side, this is surely the biggest game in their 81-year history. County are probably now just too far back to realistically be in with a chance of winning the 1st Division this season, but this has still been a memorable campaign for the Staggies, with the quarter-final victory over Hibs among the highlights. For Celtic, this has been a miserable campaign, with only the temporary signing of Robbie Keane providing them with any joy (and, no doubt, some healthy merchandise sales)

The Verdict
Now, the verdict in this one has been causing this writer much trepidation. Despite Celtic being in a higher league than County, recently their performances have been poor- they were unconvincing in victories over Kilmarnock and Hibs, and then there's the results "achieved" under Tony Mowbray. County's recent form has generally been not bad, not great- of their last 4 games, they've won 1, lost 1 and drawn 2. It should be noted, though, that County's form going into the games against Hibs wasn't brilliant, and yet the Staggies progressed (with a few late goals thrown in. Bear that in mind after 75 minutes). Celtic's Scottish Cup record is good (they've won it 4 times this millennium, and plenty of times before then), especially when compared with County, who before this season had never been beyond the last 16, but their defence has been particularly unconvincing of late, with Robbie Keane being relied on to get them out of trouble. This could be a close one

The Bet
90 minutes at Easter Road couldn't separate County and Hibs, and it took until the 90th minute for Scott Boyd to score the winner in the replay- it's not beyond County to force extra time here. Therefore, the draw at 11/2 with William Hill looks great value. The same bookmakers also offer odds on County's free-kick expert left-back Scott Morrison to score anytime of 66/1, as well as a wee special double with the Grand National: County to win and Beat the Boys to win the Grand National: £5 would net you £5,555. Tempting

Shifty's Grand National Preview Part 3. There'll Probably be a Part 4

2010-04-08T12:34:00.002+01:00

This morning, the 40-horse entry list for Saturday's Grand National was confirmed. Here's a look at a few more of the contenders:

Don't Push It- confirmed this morning as the mount of Tony McCoy, who has won just about every horse race on the calendar apart from this one. McCoy is likely to have a job on his hands handling this 10-year-old, who is carrying plenty of weight. But this Jonjo O'Neill- trained horse has good recent form- don't expect him to be 33/1 for long. Has a good chance

Eric's Charm- a veteran of 12 years old, this Oliver Sherwood- trained horse has great recent form. Proven over this distance, his stamina should hold, and providing jockey Wayne Hutchinson can steer the horse through the early carnage, this old charmer, who will have less weight on than many around him, has a chance of becoming the first 12-year old winner since Amberleight House in 2004. 50/1 is well worth consideration

Shifty's Grand National Preview Part 2, ken

2010-04-07T22:10:00.002+01:00

Here's a look at a few more horses running in Saturday's Grand National:

Comply or Die- 'twas confirmed today that Timmy Murphy will be riding this 11-year-old, who fared well at Cheltenham recently, and won this race back in 2008. Recent form Cheltenham aside has been patchy, but is sure to be a factor in the race- William Hill's 22/1 is worth considering, especially as that price has shortened from 28/1 following the confirmation that Murphy will be in the saddle

Mon Mome- last year's 100/1 winner is much shorter 12/1 with totesport this time round, and that's not without good reason, as his recent form has been very impressive, including a 3rd place in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Following last year's win, he knows his way around the Aintree course, and should go well, although it's a long, long time since a horse won this race 2 years running

Tricky Trickster- a sprightly young thing is this one at 7 years old. Aside from a poor performance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, recent form has been good. Inexperience may count against him on such a tough, long course (his stamina at this distance has never been tested), but a potential contender- sportingbet will give you 18/1 on him

Chief Dan George- looks set to run on Saturday. This 10-year-old is carrying less weight than any of the other leading contenders, and has excellent recent form being ridden by Paddy Aspell. Has a real chance of winning, and therefore Ladbrokes' 33/1 looks a standout bet

Shifty's Grand National Preview Part 1 of However Many It Takes

2010-04-06T21:09:00.003+01:00

On Saturday, the biggest horse race in the UK, the Grand National, takes place, and after a disastrous Cheltenham festival, this writer will now have a crack at predicting the outcome at Aintree. Over the next few days, some of the horses that are running will be looked at, as well as a quick look at historical trends, and Shifty's tips for the race. One or two guest writers may also pop in with their say.

And they're off!

Madison Du Berlais- this horse is a particular favourite of Shifty's, having won him some money in the past (a 12/1 shot once upon a time, no less). His recent form is good, and he's a good jumper who likes to lead, therefore looking to avoid the carnage at the first few fences. Question marks over his stamina on such a long race, but looks good each-way value at 66/1 with William Hill

Ollie Magern- at 12 years old, getting on a bit now. Recent form hasn't been great, and therefore generally available quotes of 150/1 are probably about right. Unlikely to challenge

Silver Birch- won this race in 2007, but is now past his best at 13 years old. Doesn't look a potential winner on recent form, but can be counted on to make it round, although probably well short of a place. 66/1 with WIlliam Hill

Character Building- was impressive at Cheltenham (even though this writer wasn't), and is much fancied. Needs the right weather conditions and the right jockey on his back- much will depend if he is ridden by regualr jockey Dougie Costello, or if Barry Geraghty takes the ride. Currently available at 20/1 generally, but that could well change by raceday

My Will- was among the favourites last year, and delivered for each-way punters with 3rd place. Has been raced sparingly since then, so difficult to gauge where he really is. One thing we do know is that, unlike last year, he won't have Ruby Walsh on his back. Has drifted out to generally available 40/1, which is probably about right, as he is difficult to fancy strongly

Big Fella Thanks- My Will's loss looks like Big Fella Thanks' gain, as Ruby Walsh mounts this 8-year-old. Finished 6th last year, and won last time out at Newbury. Most bookies have him currently as the favourite, and rightly so. The Big Fella has a big chance of victory- totesport's 15/2 should be seriously considered

Sunderland v Tottenham, Saturday 3rd April

2010-04-02T20:57:00.002+01:00

My Thoughts

This looks like being one of those matches that the end of the season tends to produce- while Sunderland's tally of 35 points should be enough to keep them out of a relegation battle, Tottenham still have everything to play for, as they attempt to hold onto 4th place.

The Verdict
A run of 1 defeat in their last 6 has taken Sunderland clear of relegation trouble. However, their mid-season slump left them far too far back to consider a challenge for the UEFA Cup places- additionally, they perhaps have only 3 players in their squad looking to push for a World Cup place- therefore, Steve Bruce's men may well feel that they can take their foot off the gas in this one. Tottenham, on the other hand, will know that, with Manchester City, Everton and Liverpool (Aston Villa must now be considered out of the running for 4th place) all having very winnable games this weekend, and with Harry Redknapp's men still to face Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea, 3 points at the Stadium of Light are essential. This is the sort of game that, in previous years, Tottenham would most likely have struggled in. However, this is a much-improved Tottenham team that has learned how to grind out results- witness their current 5-match winning run. It will be tight, but they are well capable of making it 6 wins in a row

The Bet
Tottenham to win outright can be backed at a best price of 23/20 with William Hill. Alternatively, it's worth playing safe with Tottenham 2X, available at a best price of 1/3 with Stan James. As previously mentioned on this blog, Darren Bent 1st scorer is, in this writer's opinion, the best value bet in the Premier League this season- it's available at 5/1 with William Hill. Now, add all these predictions together, and methinks you'd end up with a correct score of Sunderland 1 Tottenham 2- such a bet is available at 17/2 with Skybet

Birmingham City v Arsenal, Saturday 27th March

2010-03-26T20:51:00.002Z

My Thoughts

Back in 2008, Arsenal arrived at St Andrews pursuing the league title, and they do the same here. However, back then this game saw Arsenal's title challenge (along with Eduardo's leg) buckle, as 10-man Birmingham managed a 2-2 draw. Arsenal, epitomised by the sulking William Gallas that day, never recovered that season, showing a real lack of mental strength. However, this is a different Arsenal side- recently away at Stoke, they were given a similar examination- with 20 minutes left, and Stoke gamely competing and holding Arsene Wenger's side at 1-1, Aaron Ramsey suffered an equally horrific leg break. Yet this did not defeat Arsenal- instead they rallied, and thanks to late goals from Cesc Fabregas and Thomas Vermaelen (the signing of the season in this writer's opinion), they won the game 3-1.

The Verdict
Birmingham's long winter unbeaten run is now over, with Alex Mcleish's outfit having lost 4 of their last 7 league games. However, they have still lost just twice in the league at home this season, and as such their target for this season has changed from the pre-season hope of avoiding a relegation scrap, to knocking on the door of the UEFA Cup (I'm still calling it that) places. However, Arsenal this season have much, much greater mental strength than witnessed in previous seasons- Nicklas Bendtner's late winner away at Hull is testament to that- and with Fabregas and probably Bendtner available again, Arsenal should edge this, even if they do have to play Mickael Silvestre in central defence in place of the suspended Thomas Vermaelen. On the subject of Arsenal central defenders, I bet Sol Campbell hasn't yet given up hope of a place in Fabio Capello's World Cup squad.

The Bet
Arsenal to win outright are available at a best price of 4/7 with Betfred. As for a correct score bet, 2-1 Arsenal looks tempting given that Wenger's men have averaged exactly 2 goals per game in the league away from home this season, but have only kept 3 clean sheets in those games. It's available at a very tempting 15/2 with Blue Square. Another tempting bet could be Half Time/ Full-Time Draw/Arsenal. 7 of Birmingham's home league games this season have been level at half-time, while Arsenal are developing a canny knack of scoring late goals- it's available at a best price of 7/2 with Skybet

Danny's England World Cup Squad

2010-03-26T11:45:00.003Z

ShiftysLastWord.Blogspot.Com FC's blonde-haired, blue-eyed stunner Danny took time out from one of his famous gallops down the wing to give us his World Cup Squad:

Green, Hart, James
Ashley Cole, Ferdinand, Terry, Upson, Johnson, Brown, Baines, Ridgewell
Lennon, Bentley, Carrick, Barry, Lampard, Milner, Young, Joe Cole
Rooney, Defoe, Crouch, Carroll

BULLY!

Danny

xxx

Also, in Ally's previously selected squad, he had David Beckham, who went and duffed up his achilles. Therefore, Ally has nominated Theo Walcott to replace him

The Return of Graeme's Silly Bet

2010-03-26T11:07:00.002Z

After months of sporadic posting I am back to post a stupid bet the day before for the first time in ages.
Agreeing with Shifty's last post, this season has been far harder to predict. Personally, I have only broken even and that is purely down to laying matches at huge potential risk to my bank balance.
On a positive note, this season has seen the rise of the mighty Ross County as exemplified by a mention on the Guardian Football Weekly podcast (32:30 minutes in).
So let's take stock. The Premier League, which teams are going down, and in what order are the top teams going to be found come May?
After at least half an hour looking at the relevant fixtures this evening on the BBC Sport website I can say with real confidence that Portsmouth are going to be relegated. I really hope that muppet with the bell finds something else to do with himself if his team have to sell their ground to make way for a new car park or Tesco.
However, every other place in the division is up for grabs. Relegation it seems is going to claim 2 out of Hull, Burnley and West Ham, big cheers for Mick McCarthy (Shifty's tip for the next Celtic manager) for showing how practice can make perfect in how to keep a newly promoted side up. Well done Wolves, you are nearly there.
To win the title however, and indeed the top 8, it is much harder to call the final line up. So here goes:
1. Manchester United (only if Rooney stays healthy)
2. Arsenal
3. Chelsea
4. Everton (what am I thinking, but they have the easiest run in)
5. Tottenham
6. Liverpool
7. Manchester City
8. Aston Villa

In other leagues, specifically the Irn Bru First Division, if the mighty County can beat Dundee at home and ICT Scum midweek the club are in pole position to win the league. This is unbelievable. I, like most other Ross County fans, am positively creaming my pants over this whole scenario.
The third league being looked at is possibly the most interesting. The Irn Bru EPL, run courtesy of the Premier League, is my fantasy football league and the race for 4th place is between Shifty and Graeme's sides as we enter the final phase of the season. Anyone can still join, just go to fantasy.premierleague.com and the code for my league is 498115-112179.
Silly tip for Saturday? Hearts and Kilmarnock double. £5 on, and who cares about the odds. It would be funny for the Old Firm to both lose twice in a row

What the season has taught us so far...

2010-03-23T12:35:00.002Z

With the season about to enter the finishing straight, I thought I'd post a few musings and tips from the season so far from a betting perspective:

This season has been hard. I'm sure, like myself, many folks have had less coupons coming in this season- surprise results seem to be everywhere. Witness particularly a general deterioration in the results of the bigger teams in the top league, particularly away from home
Manchester United concede the first goal on more occasions than one might think. It's a surprising claim, but in 31 league games, United have conceded the first goal on 11 occasions- that's in 35.4% of their league games. Think about that before blindly picking Wayne Rooney as 1st goalscorer
The best bet in the Premier League this season is..... Darren Bent 1st goalscorer. He has plundered 50% of Sunderland's league goals so far this season (20 of 40), with 12 of those being the 1st goal in the game. Give that he's very rarely shorter than 5/1 for this bet, it has to be considered outstanding value, regardless of the opposition (Bent has scored 1st against Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool (well, the dubious goals panel were going to give it to the beachball) this season). He still won't make it to the World Cup, though
Displaced teams. Given the number of teams that have been given points deductions (usually for entering financial quagmire, giggidy giggidy), a number of teams are in slightly false positions, or displaced. Therefore, it is necessary to consider that Southampton and Crystal Palace, to name but two, should really be further up the table. Also consider the position of Livingston in the Scottish 3rd Division, a league their 1st Division squad was demoted to at the start of the season

Ally's England World Cup Squad

2010-03-19T20:43:00.002Z

Apologies to young Ally (he of the lightning pace and left foot like a traction engine) of ShiftysLastWord.Blogspot.com FC for the delay in posting his England World Cup Squad

Hart, Green, James
Cashley Cole, Ferdinand, Terry, Johnson, Brown, Baines, Lescott
Lennon, Gerrard, Lampard, Milner, Carrick, Joe Cole, Ashley Young, Barry, Plus One (I'm so late in putting this squad up, when Ally sent it in, Beckham was still fit. A replacement player shall be nominated in due course)
Rooney, Carlton Cole, Crouch, Defoe

Portsmouth v Hull City Odds

2010-03-19T20:26:00.002Z

Portsmouth to win outright: best price 6/5 with bet365
Portsmouth to win to nil: best price 11/4 with Paddy Power
Frederic Piquionne to score anytime: best price 24/13 with expekt.com. No, I've never seen a bet priced at 24/13 either

Portsmouth v Hull City, Saturday 20th March

2010-03-18T12:29:00.002Z

My Thoughts

First off, an apology for the lack of action on here recently- this writer has been busy plotting his first step on the property ladder (and having a stinking run at Cheltenham), while Graeme has been setting up his own blog, graemelikes.blogspot.com.

On to the match. Both sides effectively had their relegation confirmed this week- Portsmouth's 9-point deduction for entering administration was confirmed, while Hull appointed Iain Dowie (who would win an ugliest face competition even when up against Carlos Tevez and The Elephant Man) as their new manager.

The Verdict
In all probability, this will be a Championship fixture next season, and hence that is the standard of football that these 2 are likely to serve up. Hull's away form (0-4-11) is truly shocking, and they ship goals at a rate in excess of 2 per game. Add to this the remarkable stat that Portsmouth have failed to score at home just 3 times this season (the most recent of those against Everton in September), and it's very difficult to see Hull keeping a clean sheet. Portsmouth's recent run of form (Monday's 4-1 defeat at anfailed notwithstanding) is actually half-decent considering their position, with Avram Grant's side winning away at Burnley and claiming a point at home to Sunderland in the last 5 league games, as well as reaching the FA Cip semi-finals- they may just sneak another win here. You'd have to be a bit brave and/or mental to back the team bottom of the league to win, but regular readers of this blog know that this writer falls into both of those categories.

The Bet
Portsmouth outright should be worth taking around the 6/4 mark (sorry folks, I'm at work. Odds to follow later), and if you're feeling really brave, Portsmouth to win to nil could be worth considering. Also worth considering could be Frederic Piquionne anytime scorer for Pompey, who is beginning to find his feet in the Premier League (they were at the bottom of his legs all along).

Arsenal v Burnley, Saturday 6th March

2010-03-05T12:28:00.002Z

My Thoughts
Some say Brian Clough signed him without seeing him play, telling him "If you're crap, Ronnie Fenton signed you. If you're good, I signed you". And that on Wednesdays, he insists on tying his shoes with his teeth. All we know is, he's called Brian Laws, and dear sweet jeebus does he have a tough task on Saturday away at an Arsenal side who are now within sniffing distance of the top of the Premier League.

The Verdict
Last Saturday's victory at Stoke was a massive one for Arsenal; in just about the most adverse conditions possible (having seen Aaron Ramsey suffer such a horrific injury, having failed to deal with the long-throw threat of Rory Delap and being thoroughly bullied off the park) Arsene Wenger's side managed to secure victory with 2 late goals. At home, Wenger's side have an excellent 11-1-2 record in the league this season, averaging 2.71 goals per game- that average goes above 3 if you take out the top 6 sides in the league. Burnley, on t'other hand, have a well-documented dreadful away record, even by the standards of this season's Premier League, in which most teams seem to have a case of Awaydayitis- just the 43 goals conceded in 14 away games so far, in which they have collected a grand total of 1 point. Brian Laws has not arrested a slide that started in the winter months, and it's difficult to see how, even if they go with a more circumspect approach than the attacking style which they deployed away at Aston Villa, they can stop Arsenal scoring a few here. Home win

The Bet
You'll not get much better than Blue Square's 1/7 on the home win, therefore have a look at a few other markets. With Nicklas Bendtner fit again, Arsenal now have one of their most important players available again, and Bendtner has to be considered on the anytime scorers market. Arsenal to win to nil should also be considered, given that Burnley aren't big scorers anywhere right now, and will surely adopt a damage limitation strategy. Along those lines, over 2.5 goals looks a decent bet given Arsenal's firepower, but this writer wouldn't go crazy on the number of goals to be scored- with a midweek Champions League game with Porto coming up, don't be surprised if Arsenal settle for perhaps 3 or 4.

Jack's World Cup Squad

2010-02-25T20:30:00.003Z

In an ambitious venture, Shifty's Last Word is delighted to announce that it is to become chief sponsor of Vanderreal FC- more details to follow.

Vanderreal FC's centre forward Jack has sent in his England World Cup Squad, which makes for interesting reading, notably a change in goalkeepers, plus an additional cente-forward (Jack had sent me his squad on Wednesday morning, before Wayne Bridge pulled out. He was included, with Baines as Ashley Cole's replacement)

Hart, Green, Robinson
Ferdinand, Terry, Upson, Lescott, Ashley Cole, Leighton Baines, Johnson, Brown
Gerrard, Lampard, Barry, Ashley Young, Beckham, Milner, Lennon
Rooney, Defoe, Crouch, Heskey, Agbonlahor

Stoke City v Arsenal, Saturday 27t February

2010-02-25T12:32:00.002Z

My Thoughts

A notable clash in playing styles is set to take place on Saturday: Arsenal's array of continental short-arse stars will arrive at the Britannia intent on weaving their way through Stoke with endless precise, quick passing, with besuited Economics graduate Arsene Wenger masterminding it all from the touchline. Stoke, meanwhile, will look to outmuscle Arsenal, with a side packed full of 6 foot-odd homegrown musclemen (plus the brilliant Turkish international Tuncay), generally getting stuck in, going for the long-ball and shouting BULLY!. Leading them from the touchline will be the tracksuited, baseball-cap-wearing Tony Pulis. He's from Wales.

The Verdict
One of these teams is unbeaten in 2010, and saw off Manchester City in the FA Cup Sponsored By Enron in midweek, as well as their opponents in this one 3-1 the last time they met. Yep, Stoke. 11 unbeaten, they gave an admittedly under-strength Arsenal side one hell of a bloody nose in their FA Cup meeting last month. They are extremely strong at home (6-4-3) for a side in mid-table and with only Manchester United having won with any sort of conviction at the Britannia this season (in fact, ever), Wenger's side will know that they're in for quite an evening. Arsenal's previous 2 trips to the Britannia have both ended not only in defeat, but a convincing outmuscling from Tony Pulis's men, and given Stoke's current form (plus Arsenal's less-than-convincing current form), it would be no surprise if Stoke got at least 1, if not 3, points from this one.

The Bet
On Wednesday evening, this writer placed a considerable sum of money on Stoke to win at a price of 4/1 with William Hill. After their victory over Manchester City, there's no way you''l get 4/1 on Saturday morning (continuing my experiment of pricing games myself, I actually had Stoke at 17/10, with Arsenal 13/8), so if you're looking to get on Stoke outright, get on it quickly. A safer bet would be Stoke 1X, which considering Stoke's home record of 6-3-4 exactly matches Arsenal's away record, should be seriously considered. The best bet to be on, though, is probably Half Time Draw, a bet that would have come in for Stoke on Wednesday night, and also in Arsenal's Champions Leage tie away at Porto last week.

Darren Cooperello's World Cup Squad

2010-02-23T20:09:00.003Z

Top centre-forward Darren has picked his England squad. Here it is:

James, Hart, Green
Ferdinand, Terry, Johnson, Ashley Cole (Baines), Upson, Brown, Bridge, Lescott
Gerrard, Lampard, Barry, Joe Cole, Lennon, Wright-Phillips, Beckham, Milner
Rooney, Crouch, Defoe, Agbonlahor

Shifty's England World Cup Squad Selection

2010-02-20T11:57:00.002Z

Featuring 4 Man Utd players, only 2 of Aston Villa's English contingent (if it weren't for his collection of Ireland caps, surely Richard Dunne would be Ferdinand's central defensive partner), 2 goalkeepers (and 1 centre back) whose teams currently sit in the bottom 5 and one extremely speculative punt

Hart, Green, James
Ferdinand, Johnson, Terry, Brown, Ashley Cole (Leighton Baines), Bridge, Upson, Andy Wilkinson
Gerrard, Milner, Lampard, Carrick, Barry, Lennon, Joe Cole, Beckham
Rooney, Heskey, Defoe, Crouch

Pud and Rory's Squad Selection

2010-02-19T20:05:00.002Z

As the title says;

Hart, Green, James
Terry, Ashley Cole (Warnock), Ferdinand, Johnson, Upson, Lescott, Brown, Bridge
Lampard, Gerrard, Milner, Beckham, Lennon, Barry, Joe Cole, Downing
Rooney, Heskey, Defoe, Crouch

Shifty's squad, along with others, to follow

Everton v Manchester United, Saturday 20th February

2010-02-19T12:36:00.002Z

My Thoughts

In a rare break from tradition, this writer is again writing up his own team in their lunchtime trip to Goodison Park. It's a fixure in which they have a great record, with Everton only winning once in the last 15 meetings between the sides. Both sides go into this game in good form- United are, as they have done so often in the past, pushing on in the second half of the season, while Everton have recovered from a dreadful start to the season, and have only lost to their Merseyside rivals in the league since November.

The Verdict
United's past record against Everton simply cannot be ignored, nor can the form of Wayne Rooney, but Everton themselves cannot be discounted, especially after their 2-1 victory over Chelsea recently. Although United's track record in this fixture is excellent, there's never much between the two sides at Goodison (only once since 1998 has United's winning margin been more than 1 goal), and another close match seems likely on Saturday.

The Bet
Manchester United to win outright are available at 5/6 with Blue Square, which is maybe just a tiny bit short. Consequentially, Manchester United 2X (which looks the safest bet in the outright result markets) will also be rather short, and unlikely to be much better that 2/9. One also must surely consider Wayne Rooney on the anytime scorer market- he's in the form of his life, and if Sir Alex Ferguson is considering resting him, then he'll surely wait for Tuesday's game at home to West Ham or next Sunday's Carling Cup Final- at 11/8 with Boylesports.

England Squad Selector: Graeme's Selection

2010-02-17T20:14:00.003Z

In a pleasantly surprising display of forward planning, Graeme has submitted his selection for the blog's England Squad Selector competition. Here it is:

James, Hart, Green
Terry, Ferdinand, Upson, Ashley Cole (to be replaced by Baines if he doesn't make it), Bridge, Johnson, Lescott, Brown
Gerrard, Lampard, Carrick, Joe Cole, Milner, Downing, Barry, Ashley Young
Rooney, Carlton Cole, Heskey, Agbonlahor

Hmm...So Graeme Capello leaves out Beckham and Defoe. The rest of you, get your selection to me for Friday, and then we'll open up the piggy bank and see if we can afford a prize

Well-Organised Graeme's Silly Bet

2010-02-17T20:06:00.002Z

Weekend Betting:

Arsenal to draw with Sunderland
Chelsea to beat Wolves
West Ham to beat Hull
Derby to beat Swansea
Celtic to beat Dundee United
Inverness to beat Queen of the South
Stirling to beat Brechin

Odds: 154/1 with William Hill

Shifty's Last Word World Cup Squad Competition

2010-02-16T12:47:00.002Z

SPECIAL FEATURE!

In the run up to the 2010 World Cup, we will be running a number of special features on the blog, the first of which Shifty is pleased to announce today:

ENGLAND SQUAD SELECTOR

Inspired by an off-the-cuff comment from Graeme (of Graeme's Silly Bet fame), the idea is that everyone submits the 23 players they think will make up the England (we'll consider doing a few other nations, based on how well this goes) squad in South Africa, and there'll be a prize* for whoever gets closest to Fabio Capello's actual 23 man squad. To enter, just drop Shifty an email at vanderdalgarno@hotmail.co.uk this Friday (it's the fairest way to do it by having everyone submit their squad on the same day) with your selection

*There may not be a prize

Weekend Betting, Saturday 13th February

2010-02-13T11:51:00.002Z

Here's some tips for the weekend's football fixtures, liiiike:

No Premier League games this weekend, and there's not a huge amount tempting me in the FA Cup Sponsored By Enron, so off to the Championship we go. Leicester are going well at the moment- they look like a decent side, and on current form should be among the play-off contenders at the end of the season- and should see off Scunthorpe, who are pretty abysmal away from home. 3/4 with Blue Square looks like a very good price, especially considering this pundit had them at 2/5 (more about that later)
Staying in the Championship, and remaining on the subject of teams who are abysmal away from home, Peterborough have the worst away record in the division, and travel to Gordon Strachan's improving Middlesbrough/Celtic collaboration. The Boro/Hoops are available at a best price of 4/7 with Betfred to see off Jim Gannon's men
Speaking of Peterborough, they will be hoping to avoid jumping down to League One, something this blog is going to do now. Stockport's form has been dreadful, although they have improved in recent weeks, and will surely trip someone up sooner rather than later. However, don't expect it to be Aidy Boothroyd's Colchester side, who are available at a best price of 4/5 with Coral
Into the SPL, one could make a case for all 5 away teams winning. Of the 5, the best value bet looks like Motherwell to win away at Hamilton. These two met just last week, with Motherwell emerging as 1-0 winners, and following their excellent performance in their midweek 1-1 draw with Rangers, they will be confident of inflicting further damage on a Hamilton side beginning to really suffer from that old cliche, Second Season Syndrome. Motherwell can be backed at a best price of 6/4 with Skybet

And now for me to tell y'all what I was on about earlier on. Basically, I've started pricing matches myself. On the Tuesday before the weekend, I'll nab me a fixtures list (usually from the BBC website) and before the bookies have their prices on, I'll go through and estimate what the prices should be, while also noting down the teams I fancy betting on. Then, when I make my weekly trip to the bookies (actually scratch that. One of my trips to the bookies) I'll compare their prices with my own, and if their price on a game I fancy is better than mine, then I'll take that bet.

The system isn't perfect yet, I'll no doubt have to refine it for such aspects as building a small profit margin, but I'd recommend trying it, and keep y'all posted on how my system works

Shifty

Graeme's Silly Bet for Saturday 13th February

2010-02-12T21:37:00.002Z

Just a quick one tonight as I am stuck up at the university trying to write my dissertation

However, upon leaving this morning I managed to place myself a cheeky little number for Saturday. Surprised at how good the return will be if it comes up as well

Here goes:

Chelsea to beat Cardiff
Newcastle to beat Swansea
Celtic to beat an understrength Aberdeen
Dundee to beat Ayr
Partick to beat Airdrie
Stirling to bounce back away to Dumbarton
Queens Park to beat Montrose

£5 pays out £287.12

Here is hoping..

Weekend Betting, Saturday 6th February

2010-02-06T11:16:00.002Z

Plenty of interesting matches on this weekend for punters to get stuck into. Here's a few tips:

Hull and man citeh to draw. An away banker this is not. Hull were excellent in their 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea in midweek, and have shown signs of life in recent weeks. With Amr Zaki set to become another option in attack for the Tigers, and teams above them in freefall. Phil Brown's side still have a chance of staying up. citeh are not in top form at the moment- they somewhat laboured to a 2-0 win over Portsmouth last weekend, and their away record of 3-5-3 is patchy. The draw is available at a best price of 11/4 with Ladbrokes
Bolton to beat Fulham. Under Owen Coyle, while the results haven't yet come (and that's really more due to a tough run of fixtures), there has been a marked improvement in Bolton's recent performances. Fulham, however, had lost their last 5 leage games before their midweek 1-0 win over Portsmouth, and are still dismal away from home. With Andy Johnson out injured for the season, Clint Dempsey also injured, Diomansy Kamara away on loan to Celtic and new signing Stefano Okaka still finding his feet in English football, it's difficult to see where the support for Bobby Zamora upfront is going to come from. Bolton look good value at 6/5 with Paddy Power. As a side bet, in addition to Fulham's aforementioned striking problems, Bolton have tightened up defensively under Coyle, so under 2.5 goals is worth a punt at 8/11 with Stan James
Let's be honest, the question today at Old Trafford will not be "Will Wayne Rooney score?". The question will be "How many will Wayne Rooney score?". Some bookies go as long as 28/1 on Portsmouth winning, and it's difficult to see even an inspired David James behind a flat back 10 keeping out the on-song Rooney, who can be backed to score 2 or more goals in the game at a ridiculously short best price of 3/1 with William Hill (folks, that really is the BEST price I could find- some firms go as short as 6/4 on this bet). Therefore, a random punt at first goalscorer could be worth a shout at Old Trafford today- Nani is finally starting to produce, and is available at a best price of 7/1 with Ladbrokes
To the Active Nation Scottish Cup! Some interesting ties this weekend. Montrose have improved in recent weeks, but Hibs should still have far too much for them, so take Hibs on the -1 handicap at a best price of 1/3 with Coral. Elsewhere, St Johnstone and Dundee United recently served up a 3-3 ding-dong in the SPL- these two evenly matched sides could serve up another draw at McDiarmid Park today, with the draw available at a best price of 12/5 with William Hill

Graeme's Silly Bet, Saturday 6th February

2010-02-05T20:48:00.003Z

We are into February, getting near the business end of the season, and the 6 nations are back. Result.
Scotland are 20/1 to win the Six Nations this year. Don't do what my brother did and put a fiver on it. Idiot.
A more realistic punt this weekend, I believe, is an England/Scotland double. Cheeky fiver on that.
Moing on to the Active Nation Scottish Cup, a large accumulator is necessary.
Dundee to beat Ayr
Hibs to beat Montrose
Aberdeen to beat Raith
Inverness CT to draw with Kilmarnock
St Mirren to beat Rangers
Ross County to beat Stirling Albion (an interesting side battle in this game will be whether or not Shifty takes revenge on the Albion fan who's been slagging him off on OverTheBridge)

In the Premiership,
Bolton to beat Fulham
Man City to beat Hull
Man Utd to beat Portsmouth
Arsenal to beat Chelsea

Quick mention on an upcoming feature on here:

Shifty, Graeme, and a selection of guest pundits will be predicting the 23 players they think will be in the England World Cup Squad. Watch this space, because unlike the other much-hyped new features Shifty's always going on about, this one is actually going to happen quite soon

Liverpool v Everton, Saturday 6th February

2010-02-05T12:25:00.002Z

My Thoughts

Both sides go into this Merseyside derby in decent form- Liverpool unbeaten in 6 league games (not including their shambolic FA Cup exit against Reading), while Everton are unbeaten since the reverse fixture in November. However, it would be unwise to read too much into that stat- while Everton have generally looked impressive (most notably in their 2-2 draw at Arsenal, a match which even Arsene Wenger admitted they deserved the win, and in their 2-0 swatting aside of man citeh), Liverpool are still not playing with the sort of fluency and penetration that they are capable of, as away draws at Stoke and Wolves proved.

The Verdict
Betting on Liverpool this season has been something one would do only if one was mentally incapacitated, as they lurch from one dismal performance to another. While their home record this season (8-2-2, winning their last 4 in the league) is reasonably good, those two defeats came against Arsenal and Aston Villa, and on current form one could argue that Everton are of the same calibre of these two sides. While their league record at anfailed is poor (their last win there was in the 1999/2000 season) they did have the upper hand in derbies last season, drawing 1-1 twice away from home, and with new signing Landon Donovan making an instant impression, they can extend their unbeaten run against a Liverpool side still without Fernando Torres.

The Bet
I'm at work, so odds will follow tonight. Back Everton outright if you're feeling brave, otherwise I'd recommend Everton 2X. For Liverpool, Steven Gerrard will surely be relied upon to carry the team. He's gone a while without a goal, but will surely want to impress if there's a sniff of the England captaincy being available again- with Alberto Aquilani starting to take the creative pressure off him, he could be considered on the anytime scorer market

Rangers v St Johnstone, Wednesday 3rd February

2010-02-02T21:04:00.003Z

My Thoughts

A rare venture into midweek territory for the blog here, for this Co-Op Cup Semi-Final tie at Hampden. Both these sides have been going well in the SPL recently; Rangers have opened up a 10 point gap at the top, while only Celtic have defeated St Johnstone in their last 6 games. Hampden Park shouldn't intimidate St Johnstone- they have made it to the national stadium for semi-finals in both cup competitions on numerous occasions throughout the last few years, and were certainly not outclassed in 2-1 and 3-0 defeats against Rangers this season.

The Verdict
Rangers have generally been doing enough in recent weeks to get results without playing particularly brilliantly, coping with the absence of key players reasonably well. After a slightly shaky start, St Johnstone are now finding their feet in the SPL, and should have more than enough in the tank to avoid relegation. As mentioned, St Johnstone have a good cup record in recent years, and it's certainly not beyond them to take a slightly misfiring Rangers side to extra-time, as they did in 2008 in the Scottish Cup Semi Final, a match remembered for Martin Hardie (himself now ironically facing a lengthy absence through injury) destroying Steven Naismith and Kevin Thomson with bone-crunching tackles.

The Bet
If you fancy the Saints to take Rangers to extra-time, then the draw can be backed at a best price of 9/2 with Bwin. Other than that, semi-finals tend to be notoriously low-scoring, cagey affairs, and a quick look through the Co-Op Cup archives confirms this, and Rangers without Kris Boyd seem devoid of firepower. With that in mind, consider taking under 2.5 goals at a best price of 5/4 with William Hill.

Weekend Betting, Saturday 30th January

2010-01-30T11:33:00.003Z

Aye, aye, chappies and chappettes who be following this here blog (get Facebook in Pirate Language, side-splittingly funny). Here's some musings on the weekend's matches:

West Ham look very tempting at a general 11/10 to beat Blackburn Rovers. Rovers have been utterly honking away from Ewood Park all season, and the Hammers are showing signs that, with their new owners promising oodles of cash for Gianfranco Zola to strenghten his side, they can power themselves clear of the drop zone...
...And land someone else in it. Wolves are available to be relegated at 11/8 with Stan James, which looks big for a side largely full of Championship players. And given their recent terrible form, an injury to Darren Bent would see Sunderland plummet from their current 13th position (only 3 points above the drop zone) and current price of 14/1 with Paddy Power
Some say he played over 140 games for Nottingham Forest. And that to help him sleep at night, instead of counting sheep, he counts pigeons. All we know is, he's called Brian Laws, and if he's going to keep Burnley in the Premier League, then it will be their home form that is key. And what better way to get your first home win as Burnley manager than at home to an-understrength Chelsea? Expect the Bob Lord Stand faithful to be chanting "Does Wayne Bridge's missus know you're here?". Bet365 go 12/1 on the home win, which seems a bit long considering the Hotpot-Munchers' home record
Hibernian to beat St Mirren looks good value at a best price of 4/6 with Skybet. The Hibees will be bouncing after beating Celtic away from home in midweek, while St Mirren, who are nowt special away from home anyway, are bound to have one eye on their midweek Co-Op Cup Semi Final

Graeme's Silly Bet, ken

2010-01-30T11:02:00.003Z

JT gets pumped!

Just when I have nearly finalised my mental predictions for the England World Cup Squad (we'll do a feature on that sometime soon- Ed) that prick John Terry goes and bollocks it all up. He has possibly jeopardised his place in the squad by shafting his team-mate's ex-wife. She isn't even that fit, hilariously old, or a popstar. Idiot. (Graeme had posted a link, but it was from the Daily Mail website, and I didn't want readers' PCs getting infected with bigotry, royalty-bumming and out-of-touch viruses- Ed)

So get your money on Beckham to be restored as England captain for the World Cup.

On to the weekend's football

One general rule this weekend is not to touch Liverpool. I can't believe how predictably bad they continue to be. Failure to win this weekend will mean a confirmed end of season exit for Benitez and roflcoptering all over Manchester

Two value bets that I reckon could be worth a punt are Hamilton to beat Celtic @ 6/1 and Peterborough to beat Palace away @ 4/1, both William Hill. Celtic this season are statistically worse than when John Barnes was in charge and Palace have gone into off-field turmoil so who knows how their players will react on the pitch. Both teams will win nothing this season.

In the big Sunday match, Arsenal v Man United, put some cash on Sol Campbell being sent off for being far too old and slow (although Craig Brewster is 7 years older. I have no idea why I thought of Brewster when writing about Sol Campbell- I can't think of anything that connects them- Ed). But a 2-1 home win for Arsenal, with United being without guest Guardian editor Rio Ferdinand.

Finally, all readers look out for the massive First Division clash between Dundee and Ross County on Saturday, a game that Shifty will be attending. If the Staggies win, they will be 6 points off the top, 3 games in hand. SPL here we come. Also look out to see how much coverage the Sunday papers give to this match as they seem to have been ignoring the current 2nd-placed team so far

Graeme's Hastily Scribbled Down Silly Bet

2010-01-22T21:48:00.002Z

Here's this weekend's musings (which eventually reached editor-in-chief via Graeme's phone, after he originally emailed it to the wrong address):

Quick post today as I am writing this at work. Here is the accumulator that we will be putting on. £2 each, everyone picks 1 team- last weekend it paid off and we won over £200 between us

VIlla to beat Brighton (1/6 with William Hill)
Southend to beat Wycombe (4/5 with Betfred)
Yeovil to beat Exeter (5/4 with Paddy Power)
Hearts to beat Rangers (8/1 with expekt.com)
Partick to beat Dunfermline (my own pick) (11/10 with expekt.com)

This should tide us over until midweek when I am going to do a silly bet special on the United city semi-final (a game that Shifty shall be attending. Stretford End Tier 2)

TTFN

Weekend Betting, Saturday 23rd January

2010-01-21T21:59:00.002Z

Quick look at some good bets for this weekend (this writer is going to the Man Utd v Hull City match on Saturday, so all things blogtastic will be up by Friday night)

Bolton to beat Sheffield United is very good value at 5/6 with bet365. Despite two defeats against Arsenal this week, there have been signs of improvement under Owen Coyle, who will be looking to claim a first win as Bolton manager against a Sheffield United side who are nothing special away from home, and could be weakened further if Matthew Kilgallon completes a transfer away from the club
Think twice before piling into Fulham at 1/2 with Skybet away at Accrington Stanley. Fulham are notoriously bad away from home, and are weakened further by the absence of Clint Dempsey, Bobby Zamora and anyone Woy Hodgson decides to rest for the trip to the Crown Ground. It may even be worth having a small bet on Accrington 1X (aka Double Chance Home/Draw) at a best price of 13/8 with Boylesports- Accrington have lost only 1 of their last 7 games
Cowdenbeath are excellent value at 11/8 with Blue Square to win away at Dumbarton on Saturday. Dumbarton have been shaky at home all season (2-3-4), while Cowdenbeath have been impressive home and away, and sit top of the Second Division, a league that they were actually relegated from last season. My advice to those of you with accounts with Blue Square is to get on this. My advice to those of you without Blue Square accounts is to open a Blue Square account and get on this
Arsenal at 7/2 to win the league with Betfred is big. They play Aston Villa, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool within the next 3 weeks. One way or the other, they're likely to have moved from 7/2 by then
If you're seriously considering taking the general 4/5 available on Chelsea to win the league, then you were born yesterday. With Essien likely to be ruled out for up to a month, and the fixtures above still to be played (as well as trips to Old Trafford, White Hart Lane and anfailed still to be played), they are a long way from being in the clear. For the big man's sake, they're not even top
To return to Bolton, despite showing signs of improvement, they still took zero points from their 2 games against Arsenal. While this wasn't exactly unexpected, it does mean that they still find themselves in 19th place. Owen Coyle's desire to get Bolton playing football again would no doubt have been centred on the technical ability of midfielder Mark Davies, who could be set for a while out injured after Wednesday's loss at Arsenal- they also have the highest goals conceded per game stat, a figure that's not likely to improve if Bolton continue to defend they way Coyle's Burnley team did away from home. To that end, it's amazing to see that they can still be backed at a general 11/4 to go down

Weekend Review

2010-01-18T12:39:00.002Z

Here's how this weekend's suggested bets got on:

Stoke and Liverpool to draw at 23/10: 1 unit returns 3.3
Stoke 1X at 3/4: 1 unit returns 1.75
Under 2.5 goals at 8/11: 1 unit returns 1.73
First booking under 33 minutes at 5/6: 1 unit returns 1.83
Manchester United to beat Burnley at 1/7: 1 unit returns 1.14
2-0 Man Utd: 1 unit returns 0
Over 10 corners: 1 unit returns 0

Total outlay: 7 units
Total return: 9.75 units
Total profit: 2.75 units
Return as a percentage: 139.29%

Stoke City v Liverpool, Saturday 16th January

2010-01-15T19:26:00.002Z

My Thoughts

Quick question: in all competitions, which of these two sides has lost more matches this season?

Answer: Liverpool. Wednesday's FA Cup defeat (if you watched the games, you'll know it couldn't exactly be considered a shock) at home to Reading was their 12th in all competitions so far this season, while Stoke have been vanquished on only 9 occasions thus far this season- a stat that few would have thought possible, never mind expected, after Liverpool's 4-0 win in the reverse fixture in August.

The Verdict
Stoke have a little bit of momentum behind them, having won their last 2 games, scoring 3 times against both Fulham and York City in The FA Cup Sponsored By Enron. Their physical, hoof-it-forward-for-the-frontman-to-chase-and-try-and-win-a-throw-in tactics are not exactly easy on the eye, but Tuncay is, and a home record so far of 5-2-3 is strong enough, and a continuation of it should see them survive comfortably, even without David James, after Tony Pulis pulled out of a possible loan deal for the 39 year old. Liverpool must travel to Stoke without Gerrard and Torres, and are likely to look to David N'Gog to try n'lead the n'frontline, and try and improve on an average 4-1-5 away record. Given Liverpool's depleted attack, and Stoke's good defensive record at the Brittania, don't expect a high-scoring game, and given the two sides' recent form, Stoke will certainly fancy their chances of getting a result. Draw

The Bet
Quite a few options here. The draw can be backed at a best price of 23/10 with totesport. Alternatively, Stoke 1X (also known as Double Chance Stoke/Draw) should be given serious consideration if you're torn between the draw and the home win, available at a best price of 3/4 with expekt.com, although this has been shortened a lot due to outward movement on Liverpool outright, who have gone from 4/7 (which was way too short) to 5/4, which is closer to where they should be. Also take a look at under 2.5 goals (Liverpool have been less than prolific away from home this season even with Gerrard and Torres, while Stoke have never scored a Premier League goal against Liverpool), which is available at a best price of 8/11 with Skybet, and for a slightly more speculative punt, expect a few fairly brutal taclkes coming in from both sets of players-it surely won't take long for the referee to put someone in the book, so stick a cheeky quid on Blue Square's offering at 5/6 that it will take less than 33 minutes

Graeme's Real Life Stupid Bet

2010-01-15T11:57:00.002Z

This week I have taken a dual approach to gambling.

One pound, 2 bets, one considered, one retarded

So if you want to join me get down to the accumulator section at William Hill and fill out the following:

1. The Sensible Approach
It's a 50p treble on 3 draws in the following Premier League matches:
Stoke, Portsmouth and Wolves all to draw
50p wins £17.86

2. The Retarded Approach
It's a 50p accumulator on 9 teams chosen at random without any clear or concise thought:
Man Utd, Celtic, Swindon, Livingston, Walsall, Stockport, Millwall, Accrington Stanley and MK Dons to all win
50p pays out £138.37

Have fun gambling over the weekend and join me and Shifty in Nicky Tams on Friday night to buy him beers for his birthday

Manchester United v Burnley, Saturday 16th January

2010-01-14T12:31:00.002Z

My Thoughts

Some say he once threw a bucket of chicken wings at Ivano Bonetti. And that he is terrified of shrubs. All we know is, he's called Brian Laws, and he's Burnley's new manager.

Anyway, on to Saturday's match at Old Trafford. Burnley travel to Old Trafford winless in their last 9 league games and dreadful away from Turf Moor, with a new man in charge with zero Premier League experience and up against a Manchester United side, who, despite a mid-season crisis which has seen them lose a total of 1 game in the cup, have a home record this season of 8-1-1. Welcome to the Premier League, Brian.

The Verdict
As mentioned previously, Burnley are dreadful away from Turf Moor- their record thus far this season is 0-1-9, and it's extremely difficult to see how that won't be 0-1-10 come 5pm on Saturday. Clarets fans will point to their side's 1-0 triumph in the reverse fixture earlier this season, but it's difficult to see a side which has conceded an average of 3.1 goals away from home being able to contain the likes of Wayne Rooney, Ryan Giggs, ..erm....Antonio Valencia......that's probably about the sum total of Man Utd's attacking threat right now. Not all hope is lost for Burnley (upfront, Steven Fletcher has adapted well to the Premier League), but even a slightly off-colour Manchester United should claim 3 points.

The Bet
Manchester United are unlikely to be available at a better price than the 1/7 Blue Square are offering, although I suspect it won't be a walkover in terms of the scoreline. For a cheeky correct score prediction, 2-0 Man Utd should be avaliable around about 7/1. Apart from that, I would still expect United to dominate most of the game- over 10 corners should definitely be considered, especially if Darron Gibson plays- just think of all those long-range shots of his picking up deflections or testing Brian Jensen