Monday 9 June 2014

I Feel So Extraordinary, Something's Got A Hold On Me

We are T minus 3 days from the opening game of the 2014 World Cup, so let's get the remainder of the tournament written up on here. And, given that said opening game is Brazil v Croatia, let's focus this evening's efforts on their group

Brazil: Home Advantage
The bookies all have Brazil as favourites to win the tournament at around the 3/1 mark, and it's more than justified: this is a side that, while not quite as technically outstanding as, say, Spain 2010 or Brazil 1970, and without the iron-willed defence of some of the great Germany and Italy sides to have conquered the world, this is still a very strong, well-balanced side, with a potent mix of youth and experience, without any obvious weaknesses. The generous group they've been offered should allow Luiz Felipe Scolari's side the chance to ease themselves in to the tournament ahead of sterner tests to come in the knockout stage, the first of which will see them face either reigning champions Spain (who Brazil comfortably dismissed 3-0 at the Confederations Cup last year), a youthful, underwhelming Holland, or the wonderfully adventurous yet naïve Chile, all of which would pose a challenge, but one which you'd expect this Brazil side to overcome. Neymar is the obvious star of the side, and will play most often coming from the left into a central role, with Hulk doing likewise from the right. Fred will operate as target man, with Oscar at 10 (although don't be surprised if Scolari brings in an extra DM later in the tournament, especially if Oscar takes his indifferent club form at Chelsea with him into the tournament). They are rightly favourites to win the tournament- indeed, it would be a considerable surprise if they didn't at least the semi-finals. They have everything they need to win.

The Rest
Of the remaining 3 teams in Group A, Croatia have the most tournament experience, Cameroon perhaps the most raw talent, and Mexico a combination of the 2 after their Under 23 side won the Gold Medal at the 2012 Olympics, 10 of whom have made their final 23. That tournament aside, it's notoriously difficult to assess just how good this Mexico side is- much of their side plays in the Mexican league, they don't frequently test themselves against nations outside Central America, and many of the squad that made an almighty mess of their qualifying campaign have been replaced by the 2012 Gold Medal winning generation. Their FIFA ranking of 20 (just below Croatia in 18th, and some way ahead of 56th placed Cameroon) suggests they've got a decent chance of qualifying, but their lack of experience may see them fall just short- the experience should see this young side in good stead for 2018, though. The more things change, they more they stay the same is a mantra that could easily apply to this Cameroon side. The raw talent is there in certain positions, although question marks exist over their discipline- they were extremely physical in a recent 2-2 friendly draw with Germany (more proof of that raw talent), which featured many late, crude challenges, especially from their 3 man central midfield anchored by Barcelona's Alex Song, with Stephan M'Bia and Eyong Enoh among the contenders for the other 2 positions. Maintain the style they demonstrated in that game, and it would be no surprise to see Volker Finke's men pick up a red card in one of their games- they've also only just dealt with their standard dispute with the Cameroonian FA regarding pay. All this leaves Croatia best-placed to make it to the last 16- an immensely talented midfield with Luka Modric joined by the outstanding Ivan Rakitic (set to be on his way to Barcelona from Sevilla) and Inter protégé Mateo Kovacic supplemented by an experienced back 4 and a respectable, if not quite world-class, attack, should see Niko Kovac's men into the knockout stages, although probably not much further.

Group A Bets
Brazil to win the World Cup- best price 3/1 general
Croatia Stage of Elimination Last 16- best price 11/5 with Ladbrokes
Cameroon to commit the most fouls in Group A- best price 5/4 with Paddy Power



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